2d1d7318-b632-4243-bf81-f05a4105b6e4

Joined Feb 2025·1.0K views

$1,666.32

Positions Value

$188.40

Biggest Win

840

Predictions

Profit/Loss

$0.00

Past Day

Market

Avg

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026

No 97.3¢

280.0 shares

97.3¢

98.9¢

$276.78$4.30 (1.58%)

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026

No 97.3¢

280.0 shares

$276.78$4.30 (1.58%)

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?

Yes 85.5¢

283.8 shares

85.5¢

94¢

$266.79$24.00 (9.88%)

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?

Yes 85.5¢

283.8 shares

$266.79$24.00 (9.88%)

Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?

Yes 80.4¢

240.0 shares

80.4¢

91¢

$218.41$25.44 (13.18%)

Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?

Yes 80.4¢

240.0 shares

$218.41$25.44 (13.18%)

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Yes 86¢

200.0 shares

86¢

98.8¢

$197.50$25.50 (14.83%)

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Yes 86¢

200.0 shares

$197.50$25.50 (14.83%)

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

No 78.2¢

200.0 shares

78.2¢

88.5¢

$177.00$20.50 (13.1%)

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

No 78.2¢

200.0 shares

$177.00$20.50 (13.1%)

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?

No 90¢

110.0 shares

90¢

92.5¢

$101.75$2.75 (2.78%)

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?

No 90¢

110.0 shares

$101.75$2.75 (2.78%)

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 84¢

100.0 shares

84¢

92.5¢

$92.50$8.50 (10.12%)

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 84¢

100.0 shares

$92.50$8.50 (10.12%)

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

No 93¢

100.0 shares

93¢

90.5¢

$90.50-$2.50 (-2.69%)

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

No 93¢

100.0 shares

$90.50-$2.50 (-2.69%)

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Yes 70.7¢

70.0 shares

70.7¢

75.5¢

$52.86$3.33 (6.73%)

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Yes 70.7¢

70.0 shares

$52.86$3.33 (6.73%)

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

No 87.3¢

46.2 shares

87.3¢

98.1¢

$45.32$4.99 (12.38%)

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

No 87.3¢

46.2 shares

$45.32$4.99 (12.38%)

Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

No 96.8¢

40.0 shares

96.8¢

99.5¢

$39.78$1.06 (2.74%)

Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

No 96.8¢

40.0 shares

$39.78$1.06 (2.74%)

Anduril IPO before 2027?

No 94¢

22.0 shares

94¢

96.6¢

$21.24$0.56 (2.71%)

Anduril IPO before 2027?

No 94¢

22.0 shares

$21.24$0.56 (2.71%)

Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?

Yes 87¢

20.0 shares

87¢

94¢

$18.80$1.40 (8.05%)

Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?

Yes 87¢

20.0 shares

$18.80$1.40 (8.05%)

Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?

Yes 11.6¢

284.0 shares

11.6¢

6.5¢

$18.46-$14.36 (-43.75%)

Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?

Yes 11.6¢

284.0 shares

$18.46-$14.36 (-43.75%)

Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?

Yes 73¢

20.0 shares

73¢

87.5¢

$17.50$2.90 (19.86%)

Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?

Yes 73¢

20.0 shares

$17.50$2.90 (19.86%)

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

No 25.6¢

70.1 shares

25.6¢

24.5¢

$17.17-$0.74 (-4.11%)

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

No 25.6¢

70.1 shares

$17.17-$0.74 (-4.11%)

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Yes 68¢

20.0 shares

68¢

69.5¢

$13.90$0.30 (2.21%)

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Yes 68¢

20.0 shares

$13.90$0.30 (2.21%)

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?

Yes 79¢

38.0 shares

79¢

0.2¢

$0.06-$29.96 (-99.81%)

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?

Yes 79¢

38.0 shares

$0.06-$29.96 (-99.81%)

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Yes 2¢

1,486.4 shares

2¢

0¢

$0.00-$29.71 (-100%)

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Yes 2¢

1,486.4 shares

$0.00-$29.71 (-100%)

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Yes 24.4¢

185.0 shares

24.4¢

0¢

$0.00-$45.21 (-100%)

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Yes 24.4¢

185.0 shares

$0.00-$45.21 (-100%)