Traders assign a 92.3% implied probability to “No” because the September 2026 Trump-Xi summit produced only an AI incident communication channel and a November dialogue on risks and benefits, without any commitment to jointly pace frontier model development. Trump publicly ruled out slowing U.S. progress, citing America’s lead in advanced semiconductors and large language models, while both nations continue competitive investment and export controls. This outcome aligns with longstanding strategic rivalry rather than cooperative restraint on capability gains. A major uncontrolled AI incident or breakthrough safety agreement before year-end could still shift sentiment, though current policy signals make such a pact unlikely.