Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no new country will formalize normalization with Israel via the Abraham Accords by March 31, driven by the absence of any advanced diplomatic negotiations or official announcements in recent weeks amid stalled expansion efforts. Kazakhstan's entry in November 2025 marked the latest addition, but subsequent prospects dimmed due to Saudi Arabia's longstanding precondition of progress toward a Palestinian state—unmet amid ongoing Gaza conflict and regional tensions—and exploratory mediated talks for Lebanon that remain far from agreement. With only days until resolution, the lack of summit scheduling, bilateral commitments, or U.S.-brokered momentum underscores high confidence in "No," though a surprise late-breaking deal from Riyadh or another Gulf state could theoretically shift outcomes before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$202,549 交易量
$202,549 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$202,549 交易量
$202,549 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already apart of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no new country will formalize normalization with Israel via the Abraham Accords by March 31, driven by the absence of any advanced diplomatic negotiations or official announcements in recent weeks amid stalled expansion efforts. Kazakhstan's entry in November 2025 marked the latest addition, but subsequent prospects dimmed due to Saudi Arabia's longstanding precondition of progress toward a Palestinian state—unmet amid ongoing Gaza conflict and regional tensions—and exploratory mediated talks for Lebanon that remain far from agreement. With only days until resolution, the lack of summit scheduling, bilateral commitments, or U.S.-brokered momentum underscores high confidence in "No," though a surprise late-breaking deal from Riyadh or another Gulf state could theoretically shift outcomes before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already apart of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
交易量
$202,549结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already apart of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no new country will formalize normalization with Israel via the Abraham Accords by March 31, driven by the absence of any advanced diplomatic negotiations or official announcements in recent weeks amid stalled expansion efforts. Kazakhstan's entry in November 2025 marked the latest addition, but subsequent prospects dimmed due to Saudi Arabia's longstanding precondition of progress toward a Palestinian state—unmet amid ongoing Gaza conflict and regional tensions—and exploratory mediated talks for Lebanon that remain far from agreement. With only days until resolution, the lack of summit scheduling, bilateral commitments, or U.S.-brokered momentum underscores high confidence in "No," though a surprise late-breaking deal from Riyadh or another Gulf state could theoretically shift outcomes before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already apart of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$202,549结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no new country will formalize normalization with Israel via the Abraham Accords by March 31, driven by the absence of any advanced diplomatic negotiations or official announcements in recent weeks amid stalled expansion efforts. Kazakhstan's entry in November 2025 marked the latest addition, but subsequent prospects dimmed due to Saudi Arabia's longstanding precondition of progress toward a Palestinian state—unmet amid ongoing Gaza conflict and regional tensions—and exploratory mediated talks for Lebanon that remain far from agreement. With only days until resolution, the lack of summit scheduling, bilateral commitments, or U.S.-brokered momentum underscores high confidence in "No," though a surprise late-breaking deal from Riyadh or another Gulf state could theoretically shift outcomes before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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