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谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？

Market icon

谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？

$368,921 交易量

2026-07-30
Polymarket

$368,921 交易量

Polymarket

王宏

$48,234 交易量

61%

朱利安·萨哈斯拉布德

$0 交易量

52%

邓宇

$98,613 交易量

51%

雅各布·奇梅尔曼

$44,752 交易量

50%

杰克·索恩

$94,121 交易量

47%

萨姆·拉斯金

$0 交易量

44%

约翰·帕登

$78,776 交易量

34%

亚历山大·叶菲莫夫

$503 交易量

14%

亚历山大·洛古诺夫

$159 交易量

16%

威尔·索温

$3,778 交易量

30%

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on mathematicians under 40 whose recent breakthroughs have fueled Fields Medal buzz ahead of the July 23-30, 2026, International Congress of Mathematicians in Philadelphia, where winners will be announced. Hong Wang emerges as the frontrunner after her March-highlighted solution to the 3D Kakeya conjecture and Salem Prize win—a key precursor historically linked to Fields success for 10 recipients since 1968. Jacob Tsimerman and Jack Thorne also command strong sentiment via number theory and arithmetic geometry advances, bolstered by ICM plenary invitations signaling committee favor. Secret International Mathematical Union voting introduces high unpredictability, with potential upsets from dark horses; French society's boycott adds minor logistical tension but no relocation confirmed.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$368,921
结束日期
2026-07-30
市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on mathematicians under 40 whose recent breakthroughs have fueled Fields Medal buzz ahead of the July 23-30, 2026, International Congress of Mathematicians in Philadelphia, where winners will be announced. Hong Wang emerges as the frontrunner after her March-highlighted solution to the 3D Kakeya conjecture and Salem Prize win—a key precursor historically linked to Fields success for 10 recipients since 1968. Jacob Tsimerman and Jack Thorne also command strong sentiment via number theory and arithmetic geometry advances, bolstered by ICM plenary invitations signaling committee favor. Secret International Mathematical Union voting introduces high unpredictability, with potential upsets from dark horses; French society's boycott adds minor logistical tension but no relocation confirmed.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$368,921
结束日期
2026-07-30
市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 10 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"王宏"，概率为 61%，其次是"朱利安·萨哈斯拉布德"，概率为 52%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 61¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 61%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？"已产生 $368.9K 的总交易量（自Jan 6, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 10 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？"的当前领先者是"王宏"，概率为 61%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 61%。紧随其后的结果是"朱利安·萨哈斯拉布德"，概率为 52%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。