Trader sentiment for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize reflects a fragmented field with no dominant frontrunner, as Yulia Navalnaya holds a slim 10.5% implied probability lead, driven by her persistent human rights campaign continuing Alexei Navalny's legacy amid Russia's Ukraine aggression and domestic crackdowns. Volodymyr Zelenskyy (7.6%) and Donald Trump (7.5%) compete closely, Zelenskyy's resilience in defending democracy sustaining momentum, while Trump's post-election surge ties to pledges for rapid ceasefires in Ukraine and the Middle East. Key differentiators include tangible diplomatic breakthroughs, public advocacy visibility, and the Norwegian Nobel Committee's historical tilt toward underdog narratives in protracted conflicts; uncertainty persists with nominations closing January 31, 2026, and secret voting patterns favoring surprises over early polling favorites.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅 11%
弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基 7.6%
唐纳德·特朗普 8%
利奥十四世教皇 4.0%
$11,442,746 交易量
$11,442,746 交易量
Oct 10, 2026
尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅
11%
弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基
8%
唐纳德·特朗普
8%
利奥十四世教皇
4%
国际法院
4%
UNRWA
3%
Greta Thunberg
3%
塔米姆·本·哈马德·阿勒塔尼
3%
分组项标题：查理·柯克
2%
纳伦德拉·莫迪
2%
分组条目标题：习近平
2%
埃隆·马斯克
2%
分组项标题：哈立德·马沙尔
1%
朱利安·阿桑奇
1%
分组项标题：穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼
1%
分组项标题：艾哈迈德·阿尔沙拉阿
1%
分组项标题：雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安
1%
安东尼奥·古特雷斯
1%
弗拉基米尔·普京
1%
分组条目标题：本杰明·内塔尼亚胡
1%
尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅 11%
弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基 7.6%
唐纳德·特朗普 8%
利奥十四世教皇 4.0%
$11,442,746 交易量
$11,442,746 交易量
Oct 10, 2026
尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅
$77,989 交易量
11%
弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基
$400,548 交易量
8%
唐纳德·特朗普
$2,301,842 交易量
8%
利奥十四世教皇
$463,647 交易量
4%
国际法院
$456,297 交易量
4%
UNRWA
$1,606,209 交易量
3%
Greta Thunberg
$911,511 交易量
3%
塔米姆·本·哈马德·阿勒塔尼
$311,650 交易量
3%
分组项标题：查理·柯克
$466,007 交易量
2%
纳伦德拉·莫迪
$291,783 交易量
2%
分组条目标题：习近平
$726,188 交易量
2%
埃隆·马斯克
$506,895 交易量
2%
分组项标题：哈立德·马沙尔
$204,908 交易量
1%
朱利安·阿桑奇
$325,369 交易量
1%
分组项标题：穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼
$536,960 交易量
1%
分组项标题：艾哈迈德·阿尔沙拉阿
$537,280 交易量
1%
分组项标题：雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安
$378,042 交易量
1%
安东尼奥·古特雷斯
$141,352 交易量
1%
弗拉基米尔·普京
$492,185 交易量
1%
分组条目标题：本杰明·内塔尼亚胡
$308,202 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader sentiment for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize reflects a fragmented field with no dominant frontrunner, as Yulia Navalnaya holds a slim 10.5% implied probability lead, driven by her persistent human rights campaign continuing Alexei Navalny's legacy amid Russia's Ukraine aggression and domestic crackdowns. Volodymyr Zelenskyy (7.6%) and Donald Trump (7.5%) compete closely, Zelenskyy's resilience in defending democracy sustaining momentum, while Trump's post-election surge ties to pledges for rapid ceasefires in Ukraine and the Middle East. Key differentiators include tangible diplomatic breakthroughs, public advocacy visibility, and the Norwegian Nobel Committee's historical tilt toward underdog narratives in protracted conflicts; uncertainty persists with nominations closing January 31, 2026, and secret voting patterns favoring surprises over early polling favorites.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
市场开放时间： Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$11,442,746结束日期
Oct 10, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader sentiment for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize reflects a fragmented field with no dominant frontrunner, as Yulia Navalnaya holds a slim 10.5% implied probability lead, driven by her persistent human rights campaign continuing Alexei Navalny's legacy amid Russia's Ukraine aggression and domestic crackdowns. Volodymyr Zelenskyy (7.6%) and Donald Trump (7.5%) compete closely, Zelenskyy's resilience in defending democracy sustaining momentum, while Trump's post-election surge ties to pledges for rapid ceasefires in Ukraine and the Middle East. Key differentiators include tangible diplomatic breakthroughs, public advocacy visibility, and the Norwegian Nobel Committee's historical tilt toward underdog narratives in protracted conflicts; uncertainty persists with nominations closing January 31, 2026, and secret voting patterns favoring surprises over early polling favorites.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
交易量
$11,442,746结束日期
Oct 10, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize reflects a fragmented field with no dominant frontrunner, as Yulia Navalnaya holds a slim 10.5% implied probability lead, driven by her persistent human rights campaign continuing Alexei Navalny's legacy amid Russia's Ukraine aggression and domestic crackdowns. Volodymyr Zelenskyy (7.6%) and Donald Trump (7.5%) compete closely, Zelenskyy's resilience in defending democracy sustaining momentum, while Trump's post-election surge ties to pledges for rapid ceasefires in Ukraine and the Middle East. Key differentiators include tangible diplomatic breakthroughs, public advocacy visibility, and the Norwegian Nobel Committee's historical tilt toward underdog narratives in protracted conflicts; uncertainty persists with nominations closing January 31, 2026, and secret voting patterns favoring surprises over early polling favorites.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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