Trader consensus on the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 remains fragmented with Yulia Navalnaya at 10.5% implied probability narrowly leading Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 10.1%, driven by persistent Russia-Ukraine tensions elevating dissident voices—Navalnaya's recent European addresses sustaining her late husband Alexei Navalny's anti-Putin momentum, while Zelenskyy's wartime leadership garners steadfast Western support. Donald Trump's 7.5% reflects post-election buzz around potential deal-making prowess, echoing Abraham Accords precedent amid Gaza ceasefire speculation. Lower-tier contenders like Pope Leo XIV highlight wildcard institutional hopes, but the Nobel committee's secretive voting favors surprise picks; key differentiators include verifiable peace breakthroughs versus symbolic activism, with 2025 winner announcement poised to reshape frontrunner narratives.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅 11%
弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基 10.2%
唐纳德·特朗普 8%
利奥十四世教皇 4.2%
$11,014,479 交易量
$11,014,479 交易量
Oct 10, 2026
尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅
11%
弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基
10%
唐纳德·特朗普
8%
利奥十四世教皇
4%
塔米姆·本·哈马德·阿勒塔尼
3%
国际法院
3%
UNRWA
3%
Greta Thunberg
3%
纳伦德拉·莫迪
2%
分组项标题：查理·柯克
2%
分组条目标题：习近平
2%
埃隆·马斯克
2%
分组项标题：哈立德·马沙尔
1%
朱利安·阿桑奇
1%
分组项标题：穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼
1%
分组项标题：艾哈迈德·阿尔沙拉阿
1%
分组项标题：雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安
1%
弗拉基米尔·普京
1%
安东尼奥·古特雷斯
1%
分组条目标题：本杰明·内塔尼亚胡
1%
尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅 11%
弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基 10.2%
唐纳德·特朗普 8%
利奥十四世教皇 4.2%
$11,014,479 交易量
$11,014,479 交易量
Oct 10, 2026
尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅
$79,405 交易量
11%
弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基
$401,135 交易量
10%
唐纳德·特朗普
$2,302,613 交易量
8%
利奥十四世教皇
$469,344 交易量
4%
塔米姆·本·哈马德·阿勒塔尼
$318,931 交易量
3%
国际法院
$466,978 交易量
3%
UNRWA
$1,609,742 交易量
3%
Greta Thunberg
$913,673 交易量
3%
纳伦德拉·莫迪
$293,188 交易量
2%
分组项标题：查理·柯克
$472,243 交易量
2%
分组条目标题：习近平
$749,724 交易量
2%
埃隆·马斯克
$0 交易量
2%
分组项标题：哈立德·马沙尔
$204,908 交易量
1%
朱利安·阿桑奇
$327,415 交易量
1%
分组项标题：穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼
$539,755 交易量
1%
分组项标题：艾哈迈德·阿尔沙拉阿
$540,537 交易量
1%
分组项标题：雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安
$382,463 交易量
1%
弗拉基米尔·普京
$492,185 交易量
1%
安东尼奥·古特雷斯
$141,553 交易量
1%
分组条目标题：本杰明·内塔尼亚胡
$308,819 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 remains fragmented with Yulia Navalnaya at 10.5% implied probability narrowly leading Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 10.1%, driven by persistent Russia-Ukraine tensions elevating dissident voices—Navalnaya's recent European addresses sustaining her late husband Alexei Navalny's anti-Putin momentum, while Zelenskyy's wartime leadership garners steadfast Western support. Donald Trump's 7.5% reflects post-election buzz around potential deal-making prowess, echoing Abraham Accords precedent amid Gaza ceasefire speculation. Lower-tier contenders like Pope Leo XIV highlight wildcard institutional hopes, but the Nobel committee's secretive voting favors surprise picks; key differentiators include verifiable peace breakthroughs versus symbolic activism, with 2025 winner announcement poised to reshape frontrunner narratives.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
市场开放时间： Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$11,014,479结束日期
Oct 10, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 remains fragmented with Yulia Navalnaya at 10.5% implied probability narrowly leading Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 10.1%, driven by persistent Russia-Ukraine tensions elevating dissident voices—Navalnaya's recent European addresses sustaining her late husband Alexei Navalny's anti-Putin momentum, while Zelenskyy's wartime leadership garners steadfast Western support. Donald Trump's 7.5% reflects post-election buzz around potential deal-making prowess, echoing Abraham Accords precedent amid Gaza ceasefire speculation. Lower-tier contenders like Pope Leo XIV highlight wildcard institutional hopes, but the Nobel committee's secretive voting favors surprise picks; key differentiators include verifiable peace breakthroughs versus symbolic activism, with 2025 winner announcement poised to reshape frontrunner narratives.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
交易量
$11,014,479结束日期
Oct 10, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 remains fragmented with Yulia Navalnaya at 10.5% implied probability narrowly leading Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 10.1%, driven by persistent Russia-Ukraine tensions elevating dissident voices—Navalnaya's recent European addresses sustaining her late husband Alexei Navalny's anti-Putin momentum, while Zelenskyy's wartime leadership garners steadfast Western support. Donald Trump's 7.5% reflects post-election buzz around potential deal-making prowess, echoing Abraham Accords precedent amid Gaza ceasefire speculation. Lower-tier contenders like Pope Leo XIV highlight wildcard institutional hopes, but the Nobel committee's secretive voting favors surprise picks; key differentiators include verifiable peace breakthroughs versus symbolic activism, with 2025 winner announcement poised to reshape frontrunner narratives.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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