Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Attorney General Pam Bondi as the next Trump Cabinet secretary to depart, with 45% implied probability, following reports within the past day that President Trump has discussed firing her amid frustrations over Justice Department leadership and recent controversies including Epstein-related files and a Supreme Court setback. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer ranks second at 25%, pressured by an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, travel fraud, and a "toxic" workplace that prompted multiple top aides to resign or be fired in March. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard trails at 10% after her key deputy Joe Kent quit over Iran policy differences earlier this month, amid speculation of her being sidelined. These developments follow Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's March removal, highlighting early administration turnover patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于帕姆·邦迪 45.5%
洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默 25%
图尔西·加巴德 10.0%
2027年前无人 7.1%
$2,561,351 交易量
$2,561,351 交易量
2026-12-31
帕姆·邦迪
46%
洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默
25%
图尔西·加巴德
10%
2027年前无人
7%
皮特·海格塞斯
6%
马可·鲁比奥
4%
布鲁克·罗林斯
1%
J.D.万斯
1%
琳达·麦克马洪
1%
斯科特·贝森特
1%
李·泽尔丁
1%
罗伯特·F·肯尼迪 Jr.
<1%
霍华德·卢特尼克
<1%
苏西·威尔斯
<1%
贾米森·格里尔
<1%
迈克·沃尔茨
<1%
道格·柯林斯
<1%
拉塞尔·T·沃特
<1%
克里斯·赖特
<1%
肖恩·达菲
<1%
道格·伯古姆
<1%
斯科特·特纳
<1%
凯利·洛夫勒
<1%
约翰·拉特克利夫
<1%
帕姆·邦迪 45.5%
洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默 25%
图尔西·加巴德 10.0%
2027年前无人 7.1%
$2,561,351 交易量
$2,561,351 交易量
2026-12-31
帕姆·邦迪
$6,398 交易量
46%
洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默
$79,093 交易量
25%
图尔西·加巴德
$728,497 交易量
10%
2027年前无人
$761,246 交易量
7%
皮特·海格塞斯
$677,648 交易量
6%
马可·鲁比奥
$52,325 交易量
4%
布鲁克·罗林斯
$7,446 交易量
1%
J.D.万斯
$7,893 交易量
1%
琳达·麦克马洪
$10,694 交易量
1%
斯科特·贝森特
$5,205 交易量
1%
李·泽尔丁
$72,967 交易量
1%
罗伯特·F·肯尼迪 Jr.
$4,408 交易量
<1%
霍华德·卢特尼克
$26,943 交易量
<1%
苏西·威尔斯
$5,451 交易量
<1%
贾米森·格里尔
$5,425 交易量
<1%
迈克·沃尔茨
$5,133 交易量
<1%
道格·柯林斯
$3,928 交易量
<1%
拉塞尔·T·沃特
$4,822 交易量
<1%
克里斯·赖特
$4,680 交易量
<1%
肖恩·达菲
$68,115 交易量
<1%
道格·伯古姆
$6,741 交易量
<1%
斯科特·特纳
$6,196 交易量
<1%
凯利·洛夫勒
$5,257 交易量
<1%
约翰·拉特克利夫
$4,842 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Attorney General Pam Bondi as the next Trump Cabinet secretary to depart, with 45% implied probability, following reports within the past day that President Trump has discussed firing her amid frustrations over Justice Department leadership and recent controversies including Epstein-related files and a Supreme Court setback. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer ranks second at 25%, pressured by an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, travel fraud, and a "toxic" workplace that prompted multiple top aides to resign or be fired in March. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard trails at 10% after her key deputy Joe Kent quit over Iran policy differences earlier this month, amid speculation of her being sidelined. These developments follow Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's March removal, highlighting early administration turnover patterns.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
交易量
$2,561,351结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Attorney General Pam Bondi as the next Trump Cabinet secretary to depart, with 45% implied probability, following reports within the past day that President Trump has discussed firing her amid frustrations over Justice Department leadership and recent controversies including Epstein-related files and a Supreme Court setback. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer ranks second at 25%, pressured by an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, travel fraud, and a "toxic" workplace that prompted multiple top aides to resign or be fired in March. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard trails at 10% after her key deputy Joe Kent quit over Iran policy differences earlier this month, amid speculation of her being sidelined. These developments follow Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's March removal, highlighting early administration turnover patterns.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
交易量
$2,561,351结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Attorney General Pam Bondi as the next Trump Cabinet secretary to depart, with 45% implied probability, following reports within the past day that President Trump has discussed firing her amid frustrations over Justice Department leadership and recent controversies including Epstein-related files and a Supreme Court setback. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer ranks second at 25%, pressured by an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, travel fraud, and a "toxic" workplace that prompted multiple top aides to resign or be fired in March. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard trails at 10% after her key deputy Joe Kent quit over Iran policy differences earlier this month, amid speculation of her being sidelined. These developments follow Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's March removal, highlighting early administration turnover patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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