Trader sentiment on Polymarket tilts toward Nasdaq 100 (NDX) reaching 19,500–20,500 by March end, with 65% implied probability on upper bins, driven by sustained AI momentum in Nvidia and Big Tech amid Federal Reserve rate cuts. NDX recently closed at 19,460, up 2.5% weekly on strong December payrolls easing recession fears, though high valuations (forward P/E ~28x) expose vulnerability to sticky inflation. Critical March catalysts include CPI release on March 12 and FOMC March 19–20, where hawkish signals could trigger pullbacks; trader capital backs 55% odds of sub-19,000 if yields spike above 4.2%. Historical March median gain of 1.1% tempers aggressive upside bets.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$35,469 交易量
Apr 1, 2026
↓ 20400
2%
↓ 20250
3%
↓ 20100
2%
↓ 19875
2%
↓ 19650
1%
↓ 19350
1%
↓ 18975
1%
$35,469 交易量
↓ 20400
$320 交易量
2%
↓ 20250
$0 交易量
3%
↓ 20100
$0 交易量
2%
↓ 19875
$0 交易量
2%
↓ 19650
$373 交易量
1%
↓ 19350
$3,471 交易量
1%
↓ 18975
$31,305 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.
市场开放时间： Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
交易量
$35,469结束日期
Apr 1, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.
交易量
$35,469结束日期
Apr 1, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket tilts toward Nasdaq 100 (NDX) reaching 19,500–20,500 by March end, with 65% implied probability on upper bins, driven by sustained AI momentum in Nvidia and Big Tech amid Federal Reserve rate cuts. NDX recently closed at 19,460, up 2.5% weekly on strong December payrolls easing recession fears, though high valuations (forward P/E ~28x) expose vulnerability to sticky inflation. Critical March catalysts include CPI release on March 12 and FOMC March 19–20, where hawkish signals could trigger pullbacks; trader capital backs 55% odds of sub-19,000 if yields spike above 4.2%. Historical March median gain of 1.1% tempers aggressive upside bets.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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