Federal investigations into oversight of massive Medicaid and nutrition program fraud in Minnesota—estimated by prosecutors at up to $9 billion since 2018—along with subpoenas served on Governor Tim Walz in January 2026 regarding potential obstruction of federal immigration enforcement, represent the main catalysts for trader sentiment in this market. Congressional hearings have scrutinized Walz's administration and Attorney General Keith Ellison for delays in addressing schemes such as Feeding Our Future and housing stabilization grants, prompting executive actions, anti-fraud legislation, and a decision by Walz not to seek a third term. No charges have been filed against Walz personally despite dozens of indictments targeting program participants, and the low implied probability for charging by late 2026 or early 2027 reflects the absence of direct evidence linking him to criminal conduct amid ongoing DOJ reviews.