Incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar's dominant fundraising—$5.1 million raised and $1.57 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with her proven primary victories, including a comfortable 2024 win after a tight 2022 race, drives trader consensus to an 86% implied probability for the August 11 MN-05 Democratic primary. Challenger Latonya Reeves, a DNC member and union leader who announced in late 2025, commands 13.5% amid her local DFL ties and criminal justice background, while ex-prosecutor Julie Le lags with negligible funds. No public polls exist, but Omar's organizational edge from recent precinct conventions underscores the steep barriers for challengers in this D+32 district, though a late scandal or turnout shift could narrow odds ahead of the June 2 filing deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,819 交易量
$23,819 交易量
2026-08-11
伊尔汗·奥马尔
86%
Latonya Reeves
14%
$23,819 交易量
$23,819 交易量
2026-08-11
伊尔汗·奥马尔
$19,647 交易量
86%
Latonya Reeves
$4,171 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar's dominant fundraising—$5.1 million raised and $1.57 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with her proven primary victories, including a comfortable 2024 win after a tight 2022 race, drives trader consensus to an 86% implied probability for the August 11 MN-05 Democratic primary. Challenger Latonya Reeves, a DNC member and union leader who announced in late 2025, commands 13.5% amid her local DFL ties and criminal justice background, while ex-prosecutor Julie Le lags with negligible funds. No public polls exist, but Omar's organizational edge from recent precinct conventions underscores the steep barriers for challengers in this D+32 district, though a late scandal or turnout shift could narrow odds ahead of the June 2 filing deadline.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Dec 19, 2025, 4:53 PM ET
交易量
$23,819结束日期
2026-08-11市场开放时间
Dec 19, 2025, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar's dominant fundraising—$5.1 million raised and $1.57 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with her proven primary victories, including a comfortable 2024 win after a tight 2022 race, drives trader consensus to an 86% implied probability for the August 11 MN-05 Democratic primary. Challenger Latonya Reeves, a DNC member and union leader who announced in late 2025, commands 13.5% amid her local DFL ties and criminal justice background, while ex-prosecutor Julie Le lags with negligible funds. No public polls exist, but Omar's organizational edge from recent precinct conventions underscores the steep barriers for challengers in this D+32 district, though a late scandal or turnout shift could narrow odds ahead of the June 2 filing deadline.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$23,819结束日期
2026-08-11市场开放时间
Dec 19, 2025, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar's dominant fundraising—$5.1 million raised and $1.57 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with her proven primary victories, including a comfortable 2024 win after a tight 2022 race, drives trader consensus to an 86% implied probability for the August 11 MN-05 Democratic primary. Challenger Latonya Reeves, a DNC member and union leader who announced in late 2025, commands 13.5% amid her local DFL ties and criminal justice background, while ex-prosecutor Julie Le lags with negligible funds. No public polls exist, but Omar's organizational edge from recent precinct conventions underscores the steep barriers for challengers in this D+32 district, though a late scandal or turnout shift could narrow odds ahead of the June 2 filing deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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