Market icon

Precipitation in London in March?

Market icon

Precipitation in London in March?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

20-30mm 65.2%

30-40mm 21%

50-60mm 7.0%

70mm+ 6.0%

Polymarket
NEW

20-30mm 65.2%

30-40mm 21%

50-60mm 7.0%

70mm+ 6.0%

Polymarket
NEW

<20mm

$4,175 交易量

6%

20-30mm

$756 交易量

61%

30-40mm

$409 交易量

21%

40-50mm

$378 交易量

5%

50-60mm

$427 交易量

7%

60-70mm

$439 交易量

4%

70mm+

$1,065 交易量

6%

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in March, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for March 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of March 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. If relevant data is not released by May 7, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 20-30mm of precipitation in London for March at 60.4% implied probability, driven by the UK Met Office's latest long-range forecast indicating a 40-50% chance of below-average rainfall in southeast England, with March-May totals skewed drier than the historical norm of about 44mm at Heathrow. This positioning reflects recent model consensus from ECMWF and NOAA CFSv2, attributing lower precipitation odds to a persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern suppressing Atlantic storm tracks and neutral ENSO conditions limiting moisture influx. Higher bins like 30-40mm (20.5%) capture residual model spread, while extremes remain low amid weak signals for heavy rain. Traders eye upcoming weekly forecast updates from the Met Office around March 6 for potential shifts, as inherent uncertainty in spring outlooks persists.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 20-30mm of precipitation in London for March at 60.4% implied probability, driven by the UK Met Office's latest long-range forecast indicating a 40-50% chance of below-average rainfall in southeast England, with March-May totals skewed drier than the historical norm of about 44mm at Heathrow. This positioning reflects recent model consensus from ECMWF and NOAA CFSv2, attributing lower precipitation odds to a persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern suppressing Atlantic storm tracks and neutral ENSO conditions limiting moisture influx. Higher bins like 30-40mm (20.5%) capture residual model spread, while extremes remain low amid weak signals for heavy rain. Traders eye upcoming weekly forecast updates from the Met Office around March 6 for potential shifts, as inherent uncertainty in spring outlooks persists.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in March, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for March 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of March 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. If relevant data is not released by May 7, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 20-30mm of precipitation in London for March at 60.4% implied probability, driven by the UK Met Office's latest long-range forecast indicating a 40-50% chance of below-average rainfall in southeast England, with March-May totals skewed drier than the historical norm of about 44mm at Heathrow. This positioning reflects recent model consensus from ECMWF and NOAA CFSv2, attributing lower precipitation odds to a persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern suppressing Atlantic storm tracks and neutral ENSO conditions limiting moisture influx. Higher bins like 30-40mm (20.5%) capture residual model spread, while extremes remain low amid weak signals for heavy rain. Traders eye upcoming weekly forecast updates from the Met Office around March 6 for potential shifts, as inherent uncertainty in spring outlooks persists.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 20-30mm of precipitation in London for March at 60.4% implied probability, driven by the UK Met Office's latest long-range forecast indicating a 40-50% chance of below-average rainfall in southeast England, with March-May totals skewed drier than the historical norm of about 44mm at Heathrow. This positioning reflects recent model consensus from ECMWF and NOAA CFSv2, attributing lower precipitation odds to a persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern suppressing Atlantic storm tracks and neutral ENSO conditions limiting moisture influx. Higher bins like 30-40mm (20.5%) capture residual model spread, while extremes remain low amid weak signals for heavy rain. Traders eye upcoming weekly forecast updates from the Met Office around March 6 for potential shifts, as inherent uncertainty in spring outlooks persists.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Precipitation in London in March?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 7 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"20-30mm"，概率为 61%，其次是"30-40mm"，概率为 21%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 61¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 61%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"Precipitation in London in March?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Mar 13, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"Precipitation in London in March?"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 7 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"Precipitation in London in March?"的当前领先者是"20-30mm"，概率为 61%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 61%。紧随其后的结果是"30-40mm"，概率为 21%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"Precipitation in London in March?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。