Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran since early March 2026, Iranian forces have directly enforced tolls in the Strait of Hormuz by striking non-compliant commercial vessels, driving Polymarket trader consensus on direct kinetic actions. Credible reports confirm a March 30 drone attack on the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salmi and an April 1 missile strike on the Qatari tanker Aqua 1, prompting high implied probabilities for those dates pending resolution per Reuters, UKMTO, and GCC statements. Proxy Houthi threats in the Red Sea do not qualify. President Trump's April 2 announcement of US withdrawal in weeks could spur further disruptions or international intervention to reopen the chokepoint, sustaining market volatility through April.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
2026-04-30
April 1
98%
April 2
22%
April 3
34%
April 4
19%
April 5
10%
April 6
22%
April 7
26%
April 8
42%
April 9
36%
April 10
33%
$9,561 交易量
April 1
$7,149 交易量
98%
April 2
$1,461 交易量
22%
April 3
$622 交易量
34%
April 4
$11 交易量
19%
April 5
$76 交易量
10%
April 6
$84 交易量
22%
April 7
$99 交易量
26%
April 8
$0 交易量
42%
April 9
$11 交易量
36%
April 10
$48 交易量
33%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran since early March 2026, Iranian forces have directly enforced tolls in the Strait of Hormuz by striking non-compliant commercial vessels, driving Polymarket trader consensus on direct kinetic actions. Credible reports confirm a March 30 drone attack on the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salmi and an April 1 missile strike on the Qatari tanker Aqua 1, prompting high implied probabilities for those dates pending resolution per Reuters, UKMTO, and GCC statements. Proxy Houthi threats in the Red Sea do not qualify. President Trump's April 2 announcement of US withdrawal in weeks could spur further disruptions or international intervention to reopen the chokepoint, sustaining market volatility through April.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
交易量
$9,561结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran since early March 2026, Iranian forces have directly enforced tolls in the Strait of Hormuz by striking non-compliant commercial vessels, driving Polymarket trader consensus on direct kinetic actions. Credible reports confirm a March 30 drone attack on the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salmi and an April 1 missile strike on the Qatari tanker Aqua 1, prompting high implied probabilities for those dates pending resolution per Reuters, UKMTO, and GCC statements. Proxy Houthi threats in the Red Sea do not qualify. President Trump's April 2 announcement of US withdrawal in weeks could spur further disruptions or international intervention to reopen the chokepoint, sustaining market volatility through April.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$9,561结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran since early March 2026, Iranian forces have directly enforced tolls in the Strait of Hormuz by striking non-compliant commercial vessels, driving Polymarket trader consensus on direct kinetic actions. Credible reports confirm a March 30 drone attack on the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salmi and an April 1 missile strike on the Qatari tanker Aqua 1, prompting high implied probabilities for those dates pending resolution per Reuters, UKMTO, and GCC statements. Proxy Houthi threats in the Red Sea do not qualify. President Trump's April 2 announcement of US withdrawal in weeks could spur further disruptions or international intervention to reopen the chokepoint, sustaining market volatility through April.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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