The 10-year Treasury yield has eased to 4.35% as of March 31, 2026, after spiking to 4.44% late last week amid fading optimism over an Iran ceasefire and bond market jitters, reflecting heightened term premiums despite the federal funds rate holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the Federal Open Market Committee's March 17-18 decision. Softening labor conditions—with February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 and unemployment ticking higher—coupled with steady 2.4% year-over-year CPI inflation for February, have fueled trader debates on Fed rate cut timing, with markets pricing limited easing. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where policy guidance could recalibrate yield expectations through 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$180,375 交易量
2026-12-31
3.9%
67%
3.8%
55%
3.7%
40%
3.6%
34%
3.5%
19%
3.0%
15%
2.0%
9%
1.0%
6%
$180,375 交易量
3.9%
$28,082 交易量
67%
3.8%
$26,251 交易量
55%
3.7%
$20,674 交易量
40%
3.6%
$4,645 交易量
34%
3.5%
$29,841 交易量
19%
3.0%
$0 交易量
15%
2.0%
$214 交易量
9%
1.0%
$38,910 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has eased to 4.35% as of March 31, 2026, after spiking to 4.44% late last week amid fading optimism over an Iran ceasefire and bond market jitters, reflecting heightened term premiums despite the federal funds rate holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the Federal Open Market Committee's March 17-18 decision. Softening labor conditions—with February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 and unemployment ticking higher—coupled with steady 2.4% year-over-year CPI inflation for February, have fueled trader debates on Fed rate cut timing, with markets pricing limited easing. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where policy guidance could recalibrate yield expectations through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
交易量
$180,375结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has eased to 4.35% as of March 31, 2026, after spiking to 4.44% late last week amid fading optimism over an Iran ceasefire and bond market jitters, reflecting heightened term premiums despite the federal funds rate holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the Federal Open Market Committee's March 17-18 decision. Softening labor conditions—with February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 and unemployment ticking higher—coupled with steady 2.4% year-over-year CPI inflation for February, have fueled trader debates on Fed rate cut timing, with markets pricing limited easing. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where policy guidance could recalibrate yield expectations through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$180,375结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield has eased to 4.35% as of March 31, 2026, after spiking to 4.44% late last week amid fading optimism over an Iran ceasefire and bond market jitters, reflecting heightened term premiums despite the federal funds rate holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the Federal Open Market Committee's March 17-18 decision. Softening labor conditions—with February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000 and unemployment ticking higher—coupled with steady 2.4% year-over-year CPI inflation for February, have fueled trader debates on Fed rate cut timing, with markets pricing limited easing. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where policy guidance could recalibrate yield expectations through 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题