France's National Assembly remains deeply fragmented since the 2024 snap legislative elections, with no bloc holding a majority among the New Popular Front's 182 seats, Macron's centrists at 168, and National Rally at 143, prompting repeated government crises and five prime ministers under President Macron. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, appointed September 2025, survived no-confidence votes in January 2026 over the contentious 2026 budget by invoking Article 49.3, despite threats of dissolution if opposition motions from left and far-right succeeded—Macron confirmed he would call snap polls in such a scenario. Ongoing March municipal elections reveal far-right surges in cities like Nice and Marseille, but no fresh triggers for dissolution have emerged, sustaining trader consensus on extended instability through mid-2026 amid 2027 presidential preparations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$1,054,205 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
2026年6月30日
6%
$1,054,205 交易量
2026年6月30日
$72,572 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
France's National Assembly remains deeply fragmented since the 2024 snap legislative elections, with no bloc holding a majority among the New Popular Front's 182 seats, Macron's centrists at 168, and National Rally at 143, prompting repeated government crises and five prime ministers under President Macron. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, appointed September 2025, survived no-confidence votes in January 2026 over the contentious 2026 budget by invoking Article 49.3, despite threats of dissolution if opposition motions from left and far-right succeeded—Macron confirmed he would call snap polls in such a scenario. Ongoing March municipal elections reveal far-right surges in cities like Nice and Marseille, but no fresh triggers for dissolution have emerged, sustaining trader consensus on extended instability through mid-2026 amid 2027 presidential preparations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Oct 22, 2025, 1:48 PM ET
交易量
$1,054,205结束日期
Dec 31, 2025市场开放时间
Oct 22, 2025, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
France's National Assembly remains deeply fragmented since the 2024 snap legislative elections, with no bloc holding a majority among the New Popular Front's 182 seats, Macron's centrists at 168, and National Rally at 143, prompting repeated government crises and five prime ministers under President Macron. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, appointed September 2025, survived no-confidence votes in January 2026 over the contentious 2026 budget by invoking Article 49.3, despite threats of dissolution if opposition motions from left and far-right succeeded—Macron confirmed he would call snap polls in such a scenario. Ongoing March municipal elections reveal far-right surges in cities like Nice and Marseille, but no fresh triggers for dissolution have emerged, sustaining trader consensus on extended instability through mid-2026 amid 2027 presidential preparations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$1,054,205结束日期
Dec 31, 2025市场开放时间
Oct 22, 2025, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...France's National Assembly remains deeply fragmented since the 2024 snap legislative elections, with no bloc holding a majority among the New Popular Front's 182 seats, Macron's centrists at 168, and National Rally at 143, prompting repeated government crises and five prime ministers under President Macron. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, appointed September 2025, survived no-confidence votes in January 2026 over the contentious 2026 budget by invoking Article 49.3, despite threats of dissolution if opposition motions from left and far-right succeeded—Macron confirmed he would call snap polls in such a scenario. Ongoing March municipal elections reveal far-right surges in cities like Nice and Marseille, but no fresh triggers for dissolution have emerged, sustaining trader consensus on extended instability through mid-2026 amid 2027 presidential preparations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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