Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75% implied probability to a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike in June 2026, reflecting hawkish repricing amid resurgent inflation pressures. Eurozone headline CPI accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February—driven by Middle East conflicts elevating energy costs—prompting the ECB to lift its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% on March 19 while holding the deposit rate at 2%. President Lagarde signaled readiness for hikes even on short-lived shocks, aligning with banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley forecasting June tightening toward 2.5%. Slightly rising unemployment at 6.2% tempers growth worries, with the April 30 policy meeting and fresh CPI data as pivotal catalysts ahead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于加息25个基点 75%
No change 24%
加息50个基点及以上 3.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
最新
最新
2026-06-11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
24%
加息25个基点
75%
加息50个基点及以上
4%
加息25个基点 75%
No change 24%
加息50个基点及以上 3.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
最新
最新
2026-06-11
50+ bps decrease
$835 交易量
<1%
25 bps decrease
$813 交易量
1%
No change
$1,226 交易量
24%
加息25个基点
$1,579 交易量
75%
加息50个基点及以上
$1,235 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75% implied probability to a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike in June 2026, reflecting hawkish repricing amid resurgent inflation pressures. Eurozone headline CPI accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February—driven by Middle East conflicts elevating energy costs—prompting the ECB to lift its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% on March 19 while holding the deposit rate at 2%. President Lagarde signaled readiness for hikes even on short-lived shocks, aligning with banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley forecasting June tightening toward 2.5%. Slightly rising unemployment at 6.2% tempers growth worries, with the April 30 policy meeting and fresh CPI data as pivotal catalysts ahead.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$5,688结束日期
2026-06-11市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75% implied probability to a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike in June 2026, reflecting hawkish repricing amid resurgent inflation pressures. Eurozone headline CPI accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February—driven by Middle East conflicts elevating energy costs—prompting the ECB to lift its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% on March 19 while holding the deposit rate at 2%. President Lagarde signaled readiness for hikes even on short-lived shocks, aligning with banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley forecasting June tightening toward 2.5%. Slightly rising unemployment at 6.2% tempers growth worries, with the April 30 policy meeting and fresh CPI data as pivotal catalysts ahead.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
交易量
$5,688结束日期
2026-06-11市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75% implied probability to a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike in June 2026, reflecting hawkish repricing amid resurgent inflation pressures. Eurozone headline CPI accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February—driven by Middle East conflicts elevating energy costs—prompting the ECB to lift its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% on March 19 while holding the deposit rate at 2%. President Lagarde signaled readiness for hikes even on short-lived shocks, aligning with banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley forecasting June tightening toward 2.5%. Slightly rising unemployment at 6.2% tempers growth worries, with the April 30 policy meeting and fresh CPI data as pivotal catalysts ahead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题