Polymarket traders assign a 73% implied probability to a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike in June 2026—the current key rate stands at 2.00% following the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold steady—reflecting a hawkish shift fueled by March euro area CPI flash at 2.5%, up from February's 1.9% amid Mideast tensions driving energy inflation higher. The ECB simultaneously raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, prompting banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS to revise calls for April-June hikes totaling 50 basis points, corroborated by money markets pricing roughly 70 basis points of 2026 tightening. German 2-year bund yields near 2.10% underscore rising rate path expectations, with the April 29-30 policy meeting as the pivotal near-term catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于加息25个基点 73%
No change 15%
加息50个基点及以上 6.7%
25 bps decrease 3.9%
最新
最新
2026-06-11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
15%
加息25个基点
73%
加息50个基点及以上
7%
加息25个基点 73%
No change 15%
加息50个基点及以上 6.7%
25 bps decrease 3.9%
最新
最新
2026-06-11
50+ bps decrease
$674 交易量
<1%
25 bps decrease
$651 交易量
4%
No change
$832 交易量
15%
加息25个基点
$1,355 交易量
73%
加息50个基点及以上
$892 交易量
7%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 73% implied probability to a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike in June 2026—the current key rate stands at 2.00% following the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold steady—reflecting a hawkish shift fueled by March euro area CPI flash at 2.5%, up from February's 1.9% amid Mideast tensions driving energy inflation higher. The ECB simultaneously raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, prompting banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS to revise calls for April-June hikes totaling 50 basis points, corroborated by money markets pricing roughly 70 basis points of 2026 tightening. German 2-year bund yields near 2.10% underscore rising rate path expectations, with the April 29-30 policy meeting as the pivotal near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$4,404结束日期
2026-06-11市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 73% implied probability to a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike in June 2026—the current key rate stands at 2.00% following the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold steady—reflecting a hawkish shift fueled by March euro area CPI flash at 2.5%, up from February's 1.9% amid Mideast tensions driving energy inflation higher. The ECB simultaneously raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, prompting banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS to revise calls for April-June hikes totaling 50 basis points, corroborated by money markets pricing roughly 70 basis points of 2026 tightening. German 2-year bund yields near 2.10% underscore rising rate path expectations, with the April 29-30 policy meeting as the pivotal near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
交易量
$4,404结束日期
2026-06-11市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 73% implied probability to a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike in June 2026—the current key rate stands at 2.00% following the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold steady—reflecting a hawkish shift fueled by March euro area CPI flash at 2.5%, up from February's 1.9% amid Mideast tensions driving energy inflation higher. The ECB simultaneously raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, prompting banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS to revise calls for April-June hikes totaling 50 basis points, corroborated by money markets pricing roughly 70 basis points of 2026 tightening. German 2-year bund yields near 2.10% underscore rising rate path expectations, with the April 29-30 policy meeting as the pivotal near-term catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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