Recent ChatGPT disruptions, including a 33-hour outage starting April 2, 2026, and user complaints of streaming failures and slow loading as of April 5, have heightened trader expectations for near-term downtime on Polymarket, where April 17 leads at 54% implied probability. OpenAI's scaling struggles with surging demand for its large language model persist despite infrastructure tweaks like improved long-context reliability, exacerbated by past DDoS incidents and competition from stabler rivals such as Anthropic's Claude. Frequent partial outages reflect the tension between rapid AI adoption and capacity limits; key catalysts include OpenAI status updates, model releases, or earnings insights into compute investments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
2026-04-17
April 10
15%
April 17
54%
April 24
56%
$4,151 交易量
April 10
$1,677 交易量
15%
April 17
$589 交易量
54%
April 24
$1,885 交易量
56%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent ChatGPT disruptions, including a 33-hour outage starting April 2, 2026, and user complaints of streaming failures and slow loading as of April 5, have heightened trader expectations for near-term downtime on Polymarket, where April 17 leads at 54% implied probability. OpenAI's scaling struggles with surging demand for its large language model persist despite infrastructure tweaks like improved long-context reliability, exacerbated by past DDoS incidents and competition from stabler rivals such as Anthropic's Claude. Frequent partial outages reflect the tension between rapid AI adoption and capacity limits; key catalysts include OpenAI status updates, model releases, or earnings insights into compute investments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 3, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
交易量
$4,151结束日期
2026-04-24市场开放时间
Apr 3, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent ChatGPT disruptions, including a 33-hour outage starting April 2, 2026, and user complaints of streaming failures and slow loading as of April 5, have heightened trader expectations for near-term downtime on Polymarket, where April 17 leads at 54% implied probability. OpenAI's scaling struggles with surging demand for its large language model persist despite infrastructure tweaks like improved long-context reliability, exacerbated by past DDoS incidents and competition from stabler rivals such as Anthropic's Claude. Frequent partial outages reflect the tension between rapid AI adoption and capacity limits; key catalysts include OpenAI status updates, model releases, or earnings insights into compute investments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,151结束日期
2026-04-24市场开放时间
Apr 3, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent ChatGPT disruptions, including a 33-hour outage starting April 2, 2026, and user complaints of streaming failures and slow loading as of April 5, have heightened trader expectations for near-term downtime on Polymarket, where April 17 leads at 54% implied probability. OpenAI's scaling struggles with surging demand for its large language model persist despite infrastructure tweaks like improved long-context reliability, exacerbated by past DDoS incidents and competition from stabler rivals such as Anthropic's Claude. Frequent partial outages reflect the tension between rapid AI adoption and capacity limits; key catalysts include OpenAI status updates, model releases, or earnings insights into compute investments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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