The lack of any criminal charges against Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor since his February 2026 arrest on suspicion of misconduct in public office has anchored trader expectations against a prison sentence. Recent court rulings quashing the related search warrants as unlawful due to procedural errors further weaken potential prosecution evidence, with a follow-up hearing on retained materials not scheduled until 2027. The ongoing Thames Valley Police investigation, triggered by Epstein document releases, faces significant evidentiary and legal hurdles in proving abuse of office tied to his former trade envoy role. While a conviction remains theoretically possible if new charges emerge and succeed at trial, the extended timeline, denial of wrongdoing, and historical rarity of such outcomes for similar allegations sustain the overwhelming market consensus for no sentence.