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氣候與科學·天氣

三月份紐約市有降水嗎？

Market icon
氣候與科學·天氣

三月份紐約市有降水嗎？

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

3-4英寸 74%

4-5英吋 24%

5-6英吋 <1%

>6英寸 <1%

Polymarket

$155,217 交易量

3-4英寸 74%

4-5英吋 24%

5-6英吋 <1%

>6英寸 <1%

Polymarket

$155,217 交易量

少於2英吋

$28,917 交易量

<1%

2-3英寸

$10,722 交易量

<1%

3-4英寸

$26,627 交易量

74%

4-5英吋

$25,292 交易量

24%

5-6英吋

$16,775 交易量

1%

>6英寸

$46,884 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between March 1 and March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for March 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of March 2026. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 3-4 inches of total March precipitation at New York City’s Central Park gauge (74% implied probability), reflecting official National Weather Service measurements showing about 3.5 inches accumulated through March 28, driven by key rain events including 1.39 inches on March 5, 0.57 inches on March 16, and 0.41 inches on March 23 from passing frontal systems. The 4-5 inch outcome trails at 23.5% amid low-confidence ensemble model forecasts from NOAA indicating minimal additional rainfall—under 0.5 inches expected—over March 29-31 under high-pressure ridging. Extremes like over 6 inches carry negligible odds (<1%) given climatological norms around 4 inches and recent dry trends, though late shifts in storm tracks could adjust totals before month-end observations finalize.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 3-4 inches of total March precipitation at New York City’s Central Park gauge (74% implied probability), reflecting official National Weather Service measurements showing about 3.5 inches accumulated through March 28, driven by key rain events including 1.39 inches on March 5, 0.57 inches on March 16, and 0.41 inches on March 23 from passing frontal systems. The 4-5 inch outcome trails at 23.5% amid low-confidence ensemble model forecasts from NOAA indicating minimal additional rainfall—under 0.5 inches expected—over March 29-31 under high-pressure ridging. Extremes like over 6 inches carry negligible odds (<1%) given climatological norms around 4 inches and recent dry trends, though late shifts in storm tracks could adjust totals before month-end observations finalize.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between March 1 and March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for March 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of March 2026. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 3-4 inches of total March precipitation at New York City’s Central Park gauge (74% implied probability), reflecting official National Weather Service measurements showing about 3.5 inches accumulated through March 28, driven by key rain events including 1.39 inches on March 5, 0.57 inches on March 16, and 0.41 inches on March 23 from passing frontal systems. The 4-5 inch outcome trails at 23.5% amid low-confidence ensemble model forecasts from NOAA indicating minimal additional rainfall—under 0.5 inches expected—over March 29-31 under high-pressure ridging. Extremes like over 6 inches carry negligible odds (<1%) given climatological norms around 4 inches and recent dry trends, though late shifts in storm tracks could adjust totals before month-end observations finalize.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 3-4 inches of total March precipitation at New York City’s Central Park gauge (74% implied probability), reflecting official National Weather Service measurements showing about 3.5 inches accumulated through March 28, driven by key rain events including 1.39 inches on March 5, 0.57 inches on March 16, and 0.41 inches on March 23 from passing frontal systems. The 4-5 inch outcome trails at 23.5% amid low-confidence ensemble model forecasts from NOAA indicating minimal additional rainfall—under 0.5 inches expected—over March 29-31 under high-pressure ridging. Extremes like over 6 inches carry negligible odds (<1%) given climatological norms around 4 inches and recent dry trends, though late shifts in storm tracks could adjust totals before month-end observations finalize.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"三月份紐約市有降水嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3-4英寸" at 74%, followed by "4-5英吋" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "三月份紐約市有降水嗎？" has generated $155.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "三月份紐約市有降水嗎？," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "三月份紐約市有降水嗎？" is "3-4英寸" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4-5英吋" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "三月份紐約市有降水嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.