Trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over April 5 flight delays, with implied probabilities clustered evenly around 4,500–7,000 as spring storm systems threaten major hubs like Orlando, Tampa, Detroit, and Memphis per FAA air traffic advisories. Recent severe weather warnings for thunderstorms, hail, and possible tornadoes moving into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through April 4 have already snarled Easter weekend travel, echoing March's spikes exceeding 12,000 disruptions, yet forecasts lack precision on intensity or exact paths. Historical daily averages hover near 5,600 delays amid routine factors like tarmac waits and crew issues, keeping outcomes tight; separation could emerge from refined weather models, FAA ground stops, or actual storm impacts at high-volume airports like Atlanta or Chicago.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於5,000-5,500 85%
5,500-6,000 85%
6,000-6,500 85%
6,500-7,000 85%
$70 交易量
$70 交易量
<4,000
<1%
4,000-4,500
50%
4,500-5,000
50%
5,000-5,500
85%
5,500-6,000
85%
6,000-6,500
85%
6,500-7,000
85%
>7,000
85%
5,000-5,500 85%
5,500-6,000 85%
6,000-6,500 85%
6,500-7,000 85%
$70 交易量
$70 交易量
<4,000
<1%
4,000-4,500
50%
4,500-5,000
50%
5,000-5,500
85%
5,500-6,000
85%
6,000-6,500
85%
6,500-7,000
85%
>7,000
85%
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
市場開放時間: Apr 3, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over April 5 flight delays, with implied probabilities clustered evenly around 4,500–7,000 as spring storm systems threaten major hubs like Orlando, Tampa, Detroit, and Memphis per FAA air traffic advisories. Recent severe weather warnings for thunderstorms, hail, and possible tornadoes moving into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through April 4 have already snarled Easter weekend travel, echoing March's spikes exceeding 12,000 disruptions, yet forecasts lack precision on intensity or exact paths. Historical daily averages hover near 5,600 delays amid routine factors like tarmac waits and crew issues, keeping outcomes tight; separation could emerge from refined weather models, FAA ground stops, or actual storm impacts at high-volume airports like Atlanta or Chicago.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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