Market icon
氣候與科學·天氣

6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震？

Market icon
氣候與科學·天氣

6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震？

8+ 56%

7 20%

6 16%

5 5.6%

Polymarket

$1,734,505 交易量

8+ 56%

7 20%

6 16%

5 5.6%

Polymarket

$1,734,505 交易量

4

$93,629 交易量

3%

5

$421,898 交易量

6%

6

$105,995 交易量

16%

7

$267,592 交易量

20%

8+

$518,162 交易量

56%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS data shows six magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide year-to-date through late May 2024, fueling trader consensus for 8+ total by June 30 at 56% market-implied odds, aligned with the historical global average of 15-20 such events annually or roughly 1.3 per month. Recent drivers include Japan's persistent Noto Peninsula aftershock sequence from the January M7.6 mainshock, April's M7.4 Hualien event in Taiwan, and tectonic stress along the Pacific Ring of Fire, which hosts 80% of major quakes. While seismic forecasting remains uncertain due to complex fault dynamics, elevated regional activity supports expectations for 1-3 more in June; monitor USGS real-time catalogs and monthly summaries for updates that could shift probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$1,734,505
結束日期
Jun 30, 2026
市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

已提議結果: 否

無爭議

最終結果: 否

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS data shows six magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide year-to-date through late May 2024, fueling trader consensus for 8+ total by June 30 at 56% market-implied odds, aligned with the historical global average of 15-20 such events annually or roughly 1.3 per month. Recent drivers include Japan's persistent Noto Peninsula aftershock sequence from the January M7.6 mainshock, April's M7.4 Hualien event in Taiwan, and tectonic stress along the Pacific Ring of Fire, which hosts 80% of major quakes. While seismic forecasting remains uncertain due to complex fault dynamics, elevated regional activity supports expectations for 1-3 more in June; monitor USGS real-time catalogs and monthly summaries for updates that could shift probabilities.

USGS data shows six magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide year-to-date through late May 2024, fueling trader consensus for 8+ total by June 30 at 56% market-implied odds, aligned with the historical global average of 15-20 such events annually or roughly 1.3 per month. Recent drivers include Japan's persistent Noto Peninsula aftershock sequence from the January M7.6 mainshock, April's M7.4 Hualien event in Taiwan, and tectonic stress along the Pacific Ring of Fire, which hosts 80% of major quakes. While seismic forecasting remains uncertain due to complex fault dynamics, elevated regional activity supports expectations for 1-3 more in June; monitor USGS real-time catalogs and monthly summaries for updates that could shift probabilities.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "8+" at 56%, followed by "7" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震？" has generated $1.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震？," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震？" is "8+" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "7" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "6月30日前有多少次7.0或以上的地震？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.