Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on April 13, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) midday forecast of a 24°C daytime high amid mostly cloudy skies clearing to sunny intervals and just 10% precipitation odds. Current observations show temperatures already climbing to 22°C under partly sunny conditions, extending a warm spell with 25°C recorded on April 11 and 22–23°C on April 12—well above the 19.5°C April climatological norm due to persistent high-pressure advection of mild air masses. While model consensus supports this positioning, realistic challenges include sudden increased cloud cover or an unanticipated cool front, though JMA nowcasts indicate low risk; monitor real-time station data from official Tokyo observatories through evening for final confirmation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 13?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 13?
23°C or higher 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$128,420 交易量
$128,420 交易量
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
Yes
23°C or higher 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$128,420 交易量
$128,420 交易量
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 9, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on April 13, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) midday forecast of a 24°C daytime high amid mostly cloudy skies clearing to sunny intervals and just 10% precipitation odds. Current observations show temperatures already climbing to 22°C under partly sunny conditions, extending a warm spell with 25°C recorded on April 11 and 22–23°C on April 12—well above the 19.5°C April climatological norm due to persistent high-pressure advection of mild air masses. While model consensus supports this positioning, realistic challenges include sudden increased cloud cover or an unanticipated cool front, though JMA nowcasts indicate low risk; monitor real-time station data from official Tokyo observatories through evening for final confirmation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions