Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Ankara on April 18, driven by real-time observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) at Esenboğa International Airport, the market's resolution station. Midday readings peaked near 14°C around 12:00–15:00 under very cloudy skies, light precipitation (5.76 mm accumulated), and gusty winds up to 70 km/h, suppressing solar heating and preventing further intensification as forecast by hourly models. Evening temperatures have dropped to 8°C with no rebound, aligning with GFS and ECMWF guidance for cool, unsettled conditions amid a broader spring pattern of below-average highs. Realistic challenges include a delayed data revision revealing an unreported midday spike above 14°C, though station logs and cooling trends make this improbable. Final MGM daily summary expected soon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Ankara on April 18?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 18?
14°C 100.0%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$184,965 交易量
$184,965 交易量
13°C
<1%
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
14°C 100.0%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$184,965 交易量
$184,965 交易量
13°C
<1%
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
已提議結果: No
有爭議
已提議結果: No
有爭議
最終稽核
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
有爭議
已提議結果: No
有爭議
最終稽核
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Ankara on April 18, driven by real-time observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) at Esenboğa International Airport, the market's resolution station. Midday readings peaked near 14°C around 12:00–15:00 under very cloudy skies, light precipitation (5.76 mm accumulated), and gusty winds up to 70 km/h, suppressing solar heating and preventing further intensification as forecast by hourly models. Evening temperatures have dropped to 8°C with no rebound, aligning with GFS and ECMWF guidance for cool, unsettled conditions amid a broader spring pattern of below-average highs. Realistic challenges include a delayed data revision revealing an unreported midday spike above 14°C, though station logs and cooling trends make this improbable. Final MGM daily summary expected soon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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