Trader consensus has locked in 31°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 13, driven by real-time observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—peaking at 31°C midday amid very warm, humid conditions with partial cloud cover and light winds. China Meteorological Administration hourly data and short-range forecast models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles confirm this maximum, as sea breezes and increasing cloudiness have capped further intensification, aligning with above-normal April highs under a subtropical ridge. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-afternoon heat burst exceeding model guidance, but current atmospheric stability makes 32°C or higher improbable; final daily records expected from CMA by evening.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 13?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 13?
31°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$262,121 交易量
$262,121 交易量
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$262,121 交易量
$262,121 交易量
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus has locked in 31°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 13, driven by real-time observations from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—peaking at 31°C midday amid very warm, humid conditions with partial cloud cover and light winds. China Meteorological Administration hourly data and short-range forecast models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles confirm this maximum, as sea breezes and increasing cloudiness have capped further intensification, aligning with above-normal April highs under a subtropical ridge. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-afternoon heat burst exceeding model guidance, but current atmospheric stability makes 32°C or higher improbable; final daily records expected from CMA by evening.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions