Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader optimism for Milan's March 21 high temperature reaching 16°C or higher (58% implied probability), projecting daytime maxima of 15-17°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over the Mediterranean that funnels mild southerly airflow into northern Italy. The 15°C outcome at 31% reflects model spread accounting for potential cloud cover or frontal timing uncertainties, with daytime peaks typically occurring mid-afternoon per historical METAR observations at Milan Linate Airport. Recent 00Z model runs strengthened this warmer bias amid Europe's mild winter anomaly—March averages historically hover around 13°C—elevating above-normal odds while volatility from jet stream wobbles tempers extremes. Key resolution hinges on verified airport readings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於3月21日米蘭的最高溫度?
3月21日米蘭的最高溫度?
$38,473 交易量
$38,473 交易量
15°C
32%
16°C或以上
65%
$38,473 交易量
$38,473 交易量
15°C
32%
16°C或以上
65%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader optimism for Milan's March 21 high temperature reaching 16°C or higher (58% implied probability), projecting daytime maxima of 15-17°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over the Mediterranean that funnels mild southerly airflow into northern Italy. The 15°C outcome at 31% reflects model spread accounting for potential cloud cover or frontal timing uncertainties, with daytime peaks typically occurring mid-afternoon per historical METAR observations at Milan Linate Airport. Recent 00Z model runs strengthened this warmer bias amid Europe's mild winter anomaly—March averages historically hover around 13°C—elevating above-normal odds while volatility from jet stream wobbles tempers extremes. Key resolution hinges on verified airport readings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions