Ensemble forecasts from leading models like GFS and ECMWF show a tight spread for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on March 25, centering implied probabilities around 25–27°C due to a weak high-pressure ridge stabilizing conditions amid mild southerly flows. The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional's latest outlook pegs the peak near 26°C, influenced by urban heat island effects amplifying late-autumn norms (historical March highs average 24–25°C at Ezeiza station). Subtle divergences arise from cloud cover variability and sea breeze timing, with traders pricing in a 25.5% edge for 26°C versus 24% for 25°C; upcoming 12-hour updates from SMN could tip the balance as resolution hinges on official airport observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 25?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 25?
26°C 25%
25°C 24%
27°C 22%
24°C 20%
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
16%
24°C
20%
25°C
24%
26°C
25%
27°C
22%
28°C
17%
29°C
12%
30°C or higher
2%
26°C 25%
25°C 24%
27°C 22%
24°C 20%
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
16%
24°C
20%
25°C
24%
26°C
25%
27°C
22%
28°C
17%
29°C
12%
30°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from leading models like GFS and ECMWF show a tight spread for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on March 25, centering implied probabilities around 25–27°C due to a weak high-pressure ridge stabilizing conditions amid mild southerly flows. The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional's latest outlook pegs the peak near 26°C, influenced by urban heat island effects amplifying late-autumn norms (historical March highs average 24–25°C at Ezeiza station). Subtle divergences arise from cloud cover variability and sea breeze timing, with traders pricing in a 25.5% edge for 26°C versus 24% for 25°C; upcoming 12-hour updates from SMN could tip the balance as resolution hinges on official airport observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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