Bobby Pulido holds a strong lead in the TX-15 House race according to trader consensus, driven by consistent polling showing him ahead or tied with incumbent Monica De La Cruz in a redrawn district that voted for Trump by 18 points in 2024. Redistricting added substantial new territory unfamiliar to De La Cruz, while Pulido’s high name recognition as a Tejano musician and outreach at community events have boosted his support among Hispanic voters. Multiple forecasters rate the contest a toss-up, with recent surveys from September placing Pulido ahead by margins of 5 to 13 points. Democratic outside spending and Pulido’s moderate messaging on the economy and border have further narrowed the gap, though De La Cruz maintains fundraising advantages and Republican structural strengths in the district. Early voting begins later this month ahead of the November 3 general election.