The Polymarket-implied probability of U.S. GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026 leads at 43.5%, reflecting trader consensus on resilient expansion driven by AI-related capital spending and government outlays, despite Q1 2026 real GDP rising 2.0% annualized—below the 2.3% consensus forecast but rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5%. Forecasters like Goldman Sachs (2.5%) and Vanguard (2.3%) cluster around 2.2–2.5%, supporting nearby bins at 17.0% (1.5–2.0%) and 13.5% (2.0–2.5%), while lower outcomes gain traction amid persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks such as Middle East tensions noted in the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook. Upcoming Q2 GDP nowcasts (Atlanta Fed ~3.7%) and May nonfarm payrolls could shift sentiment further.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 44%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
2.0–2.5% 14%
1.0–1.5% 11.7%
$27,485 KL.
$27,485 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
10%
0.5–1.0%
7%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
17%
2.0–2.5%
14%
>2.5%
44%
>2.5% 44%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
2.0–2.5% 14%
1.0–1.5% 11.7%
$27,485 KL.
$27,485 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,841 KL.
10%
0.5–1.0%
$15,144 KL.
7%
1.0–1.5%
$1,502 KL.
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,444 KL.
17%
2.0–2.5%
$1,578 KL.
14%
>2.5%
$3,976 KL.
44%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Polymarket-implied probability of U.S. GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026 leads at 43.5%, reflecting trader consensus on resilient expansion driven by AI-related capital spending and government outlays, despite Q1 2026 real GDP rising 2.0% annualized—below the 2.3% consensus forecast but rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5%. Forecasters like Goldman Sachs (2.5%) and Vanguard (2.3%) cluster around 2.2–2.5%, supporting nearby bins at 17.0% (1.5–2.0%) and 13.5% (2.0–2.5%), while lower outcomes gain traction amid persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks such as Middle East tensions noted in the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook. Upcoming Q2 GDP nowcasts (Atlanta Fed ~3.7%) and May nonfarm payrolls could shift sentiment further.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$27,485Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Polymarket-implied probability of U.S. GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026 leads at 43.5%, reflecting trader consensus on resilient expansion driven by AI-related capital spending and government outlays, despite Q1 2026 real GDP rising 2.0% annualized—below the 2.3% consensus forecast but rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5%. Forecasters like Goldman Sachs (2.5%) and Vanguard (2.3%) cluster around 2.2–2.5%, supporting nearby bins at 17.0% (1.5–2.0%) and 13.5% (2.0–2.5%), while lower outcomes gain traction amid persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks such as Middle East tensions noted in the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook. Upcoming Q2 GDP nowcasts (Atlanta Fed ~3.7%) and May nonfarm payrolls could shift sentiment further.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$27,485Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Polymarket-implied probability of U.S. GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026 leads at 43.5%, reflecting trader consensus on resilient expansion driven by AI-related capital spending and government outlays, despite Q1 2026 real GDP rising 2.0% annualized—below the 2.3% consensus forecast but rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5%. Forecasters like Goldman Sachs (2.5%) and Vanguard (2.3%) cluster around 2.2–2.5%, supporting nearby bins at 17.0% (1.5–2.0%) and 13.5% (2.0–2.5%), while lower outcomes gain traction amid persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks such as Middle East tensions noted in the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook. Upcoming Q2 GDP nowcasts (Atlanta Fed ~3.7%) and May nonfarm payrolls could shift sentiment further.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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