Recent OPEC+ production adjustments and reaffirmed commitments to market stability by core members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have reinforced trader expectations that the organization will maintain its institutional framework through 2026. The UAE’s May 1 exit, representing about 3% of global supply, has prompted some analysts to question long-term cohesion, yet ongoing ministerial meetings and coordinated output decisions signal continuity rather than dissolution. Market-implied odds at 91.5% for “No” reflect this resilience amid steady oil inventories and spare capacity dynamics. While a cascade of additional exits or a major geopolitical rupture could theoretically accelerate fragmentation, such developments remain low-probability events unlikely to materialize before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$19,078 KL.
$19,078 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$19,078 KL.
$19,078 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent OPEC+ production adjustments and reaffirmed commitments to market stability by core members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have reinforced trader expectations that the organization will maintain its institutional framework through 2026. The UAE’s May 1 exit, representing about 3% of global supply, has prompted some analysts to question long-term cohesion, yet ongoing ministerial meetings and coordinated output decisions signal continuity rather than dissolution. Market-implied odds at 91.5% for “No” reflect this resilience amid steady oil inventories and spare capacity dynamics. While a cascade of additional exits or a major geopolitical rupture could theoretically accelerate fragmentation, such developments remain low-probability events unlikely to materialize before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$19,078Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent OPEC+ production adjustments and reaffirmed commitments to market stability by core members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have reinforced trader expectations that the organization will maintain its institutional framework through 2026. The UAE’s May 1 exit, representing about 3% of global supply, has prompted some analysts to question long-term cohesion, yet ongoing ministerial meetings and coordinated output decisions signal continuity rather than dissolution. Market-implied odds at 91.5% for “No” reflect this resilience amid steady oil inventories and spare capacity dynamics. While a cascade of additional exits or a major geopolitical rupture could theoretically accelerate fragmentation, such developments remain low-probability events unlikely to materialize before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$19,078Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent OPEC+ production adjustments and reaffirmed commitments to market stability by core members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have reinforced trader expectations that the organization will maintain its institutional framework through 2026. The UAE’s May 1 exit, representing about 3% of global supply, has prompted some analysts to question long-term cohesion, yet ongoing ministerial meetings and coordinated output decisions signal continuity rather than dissolution. Market-implied odds at 91.5% for “No” reflect this resilience amid steady oil inventories and spare capacity dynamics. While a cascade of additional exits or a major geopolitical rupture could theoretically accelerate fragmentation, such developments remain low-probability events unlikely to materialize before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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