Traders assign a 98.5% implied probability to the European Union remaining intact through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any formal withdrawal notifications from a majority of member states or treaty-level repeal processes. EU institutions continue routine operations, including fiscal surveillance, banking integration efforts, and enlargement preparations, while member governments manage discrete pressures such as coalition strains in Germany and debates over budget contributions without triggering exit mechanisms. Public surveys indicate widespread concern over long-term cohesion yet strong preference for a more integrated union rather than dissolution. Realistic shifts in odds would require rapid, coordinated action by multiple capitals to initiate withdrawals or negotiate a nullifying treaty—developments without precedent or active momentum in the final months of 2026.