Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1 amid escalating Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The departure weakens the cartel's grip on roughly 40% of global crude supply but sources confirm core members—including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia—remain committed, as evidenced by recent OPEC+ meetings extending 3.6 million b/d production cuts through year-end to support Brent crude stability. Single-member exits, like Angola's prior departure, have not unraveled the group historically, driving strong "No" positioning. Key catalysts include June ministerial monitoring and inventory draw trajectories, with low odds of further defections per related markets.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1 amid escalating Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The departure weakens the cartel's grip on roughly 40% of global crude supply but sources confirm core members—including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia—remain committed, as evidenced by recent OPEC+ meetings extending 3.6 million b/d production cuts through year-end to support Brent crude stability. Single-member exits, like Angola's prior departure, have not unraveled the group historically, driving strong "No" positioning. Key catalysts include June ministerial monitoring and inventory draw trajectories, with low odds of further defections per related markets.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,350Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1 amid escalating Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The departure weakens the cartel's grip on roughly 40% of global crude supply but sources confirm core members—including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia—remain committed, as evidenced by recent OPEC+ meetings extending 3.6 million b/d production cuts through year-end to support Brent crude stability. Single-member exits, like Angola's prior departure, have not unraveled the group historically, driving strong "No" positioning. Key catalysts include June ministerial monitoring and inventory draw trajectories, with low odds of further defections per related markets.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$7,350Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1 amid escalating Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The departure weakens the cartel's grip on roughly 40% of global crude supply but sources confirm core members—including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia—remain committed, as evidenced by recent OPEC+ meetings extending 3.6 million b/d production cuts through year-end to support Brent crude stability. Single-member exits, like Angola's prior departure, have not unraveled the group historically, driving strong "No" positioning. Key catalysts include June ministerial monitoring and inventory draw trajectories, with low odds of further defections per related markets.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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