**Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” on another Clacton by-election in 2026 because the multi-step parliamentary process required to trigger a recall remains far from certain to conclude with an election before year-end.** Nigel Farage resigned his seat in July 2026 amid scrutiny over a £5 million gift from cryptocurrency billionaire Christopher Harborne, triggering the August by-election he won with 63.3% of the vote and a 12,784 majority. The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards investigation into disclosure rules resumed immediately afterward and, as of early October, was expected to deliver findings within days for potential referral to the Committee on Standards. Even if the committee recommends and the Commons approves a suspension exceeding ten sitting days, a recall petition would still need signatures from 10% of registered voters in the constituency—a threshold that has proven difficult to meet quickly in past cases. With Parliament’s timetable, committee deliberations, and the petition window, completion inside the remaining weeks of 2026 faces significant procedural and timing barriers. Major parties have signaled readiness to contest if needed, but the combination of high hurdles and calendar constraints underpins the current trader consensus.