Darline Graham Nordone holds the strongest position in South Carolina's Republican Senate special primary runoff due to her lead in the August 11 primary with roughly one-third of the vote, her appointment as interim senator following Lindsey Graham's death, and endorsement from President Trump. This combination of incumbency advantages, family name recognition, and party support has shaped trader consensus ahead of the August 25 runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman, who finished second but trails significantly. Other filed candidates, including Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and Mark Lynch, received far lower shares and did not advance, limiting their prospects in the two-candidate contest. The compressed timeline and recent primary results have reinforced expectations that the top two finishers will decide the nomination.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоDarline Graham Nordone's market probability peaks at 92% ahead of runoff
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 92%15%
Market prices surged to 92% for Darline Graham Nordone as she solidified her position as the likely winner of the Republican nomination following endorsements and campaign momentum heading into the runoff.
Darline Graham's support peaks after runoff projection
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 90%13%
Darline Graham's market price peaked at 92% following the runoff projection, reflecting strong market confidence in her eventual nomination as the Republican candidate for the general election.
Russell Fry endorses Darline Graham in South Carolina Senate runoff
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 72%63%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry, who finished third in the special primary, endorsed Darline Graham Nordone in the upcoming runoff, potentially consolidating support behind her and influencing the runoff dynamics.
Rep. Russell Fry endorses Darline Graham in runoff
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 86%9%
Russell Fry, who finished third in the special primary, endorsed Darline Graham in the runoff, consolidating support behind her and likely influencing market confidence in her eventual nomination.
Russell Fry endorses Darline Graham in runoff for South Carolina Senate seat
After finishing third in the special primary, Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Darline Graham Nordone in the runoff, potentially consolidating conservative support behind her.
Market prices reflect Darline Graham Nordone as leading candidate after primary
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 82%9%
Following the primary, market prices surged for Darline Graham Nordone, reflecting her frontrunner status going into the runoff against Ralph Norman, whose market price also remained significant.
Associated Press projects South Carolina Senate special primary to runoff
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 76%35%
The Associated Press projected that the August 11 special Republican primary would head to a runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman, confirming the market's expectation of a runoff and solidifying Darline Graham's frontrunner status.
Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina special GOP Senate primary
The Associated Press projected that Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman would advance to the runoff election after finishing first and second in the special Republican primary, with Darline Graham leading with about 33% of the vote and Norman second with about 24%.
Associated Press projects runoff in South Carolina special Republican Senate primary
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 86%9%
The AP projected that the special primary would head to a runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman, confirming market expectations and solidifying Graham's frontrunner status.
Associated Press projects runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 77%36%
Following the August 11 primary, the AP projected a runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman, confirming the market's expectation of a runoff and solidifying Darline Graham's frontrunner status.
South Carolina special Republican Senate primary held, no candidate wins majority
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 86%45%
The special primary election took place with no candidate receiving over 50% of the vote, leading to a runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman. This outcome caused a major market shift, with Darline Graham's price surging and others falling to zero.
South Carolina holds special Republican primary for U.S. Senate seat
South Carolina voters participated in the special Republican primary to select the party's nominee for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Lindsey Graham's death. Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman advanced to a runoff as no candidate secured a majority.
South Carolina special Republican primary held; Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff
The special primary election took place with no candidate securing a majority, leading to a runoff between Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman. This event caused a major market shift favoring these two candidates.
Special Republican primary held to select nominee for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 87%24%
South Carolina held a special Republican primary on August 11, 2026, to select the nominee to replace Lindsey Graham. Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman emerged as the top two candidates, advancing to a runoff scheduled for August 25.
Special Republican primary held to select nominee for South Carolina U.S. Senate seat
South Carolina held a special Republican primary to select the nominee to replace the late Lindsey Graham. Darline Graham and Ralph Norman emerged as the top two candidates, advancing to a runoff, reflecting the competitive nature of the race.
South Carolina special Republican primary held; no candidate wins majority
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 77%37%
The August 11 special primary concluded with Darline Graham leading but failing to secure over 50% of the vote, forcing a runoff with Ralph Norman, which caused a significant market shift favoring Graham.
Special Republican primary held in South Carolina for U.S. Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 86%24%
South Carolina held the special Republican primary to select the nominee to replace Lindsey Graham, with Darline Graham and Ralph Norman finishing first and second, leading to a runoff election scheduled for August 25.
Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina special GOP Senate primary
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 87%17%
In the August 11 special Republican primary, Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman finished first and second respectively, advancing to a runoff election. This outcome confirmed the leading contenders and shaped the final market resolution.
Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina Senate special primary
In the August 11 special Republican primary, Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman secured the top two spots, advancing to a runoff election scheduled for August 25. This outcome reflected the competitive nature of the race and the divided support among Republican voters.
Special Republican primary held for South Carolina U.S. Senate seat
South Carolina held a special Republican primary to select the nominee to replace the late Lindsey Graham. Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman emerged as the top two candidates, leading to a runoff election scheduled for August 25, 2026.
Russell Fry and Mark Sanford fail to advance in South Carolina special Republican primary
Russell Fry plunges to 0%45%
Despite early campaign efforts, both Rep. Russell Fry and former Governor Mark Sanford failed to secure enough votes to advance past the August 11 special Republican primary, effectively ending their bids for the Senate nomination.
Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina special Republican primary
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 83%10%
In the August 11 special Republican primary, Darline Graham Nordone led the field but did not secure a majority, with Ralph Norman finishing second. This result triggered a runoff election between the two candidates, setting the stage for the final nomination decision.
Special Republican primary held in South Carolina for U.S. Senate seat
South Carolina held a special Republican primary with 10 candidates vying to replace the late Lindsey Graham. Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman finished first and second, respectively, but no candidate received a majority, triggering a runoff election.
Ralph Norman makes final campaign push before South Carolina Senate special primary
Ralph Norman jumps to 31%6%
Ralph Norman held a final campaign event with supporters including U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace, urging voter turnout and emphasizing his congressional record, which helped solidify his position as a runoff contender.
Russell Fry campaigns at candidate event ahead of special primary
Russell Fry jumps to 32%6%
Rep. Russell Fry participated in a candidate event in Florence, South Carolina, aiming to boost his profile and voter support in the special primary.
Republican candidates debate ahead of South Carolina special primary
Several Republican candidates, including Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and Mark Lynch, participated in a debate, providing voters with insights into their platforms and influencing voter sentiment ahead of the primary.
Mark Lynch interviews and campaigns for Senate seat
Mark Lynch plunges to 4%41%
Mark Lynch, a Greenville businessman and previous challenger to Lindsey Graham, actively campaigned and gave interviews to boost his profile in the special primary, though polling suggested he was behind frontrunners.
Mark Lynch campaigns actively ahead of South Carolina Senate special primary
Mark Lynch dips to 0%3%
Mark Lynch held campaign events and interviews to boost his profile ahead of the special primary, though polling suggested he was trailing the frontrunners, impacting his market price downward.
Mark Lynch interviewed about his Senate campaign and prospects
Mark Lynch jumps to 62%8%
Mark Lynch gave an interview discussing his campaign strategy and challenges in the special primary, which influenced market perceptions of his viability.
Early voting begins for South Carolina special Republican Senate primary
Early voting started on August 5, allowing Republican voters to cast ballots ahead of the August 11 primary, intensifying campaign efforts and influencing market expectations as turnout data began to emerge.
Rep. Joe Wilson announces he will not run for Senate seat
Joe Wilson plunges to 0%45%
Veteran Congressman Joe Wilson publicly announced he would not run for the Senate seat, citing the importance of maintaining the Republican House majority, which removed him from the candidate field and affected market expectations.
Mark Lynch campaigns ahead of South Carolina special GOP primary
Mark Lynch surges to 80%17%
Mark Lynch actively campaigned in Lexington, South Carolina, ahead of the special primary, attempting to increase voter support and market confidence.
Mark Lynch re-enters South Carolina Senate race after Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch plunges to 0%45%
Mark Lynch, who previously challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, re-entered the race for the special Republican primary, adding competition and influencing market dynamics.
Mark Lynch re-enters Senate race following Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch plunges to 4%41%
Mark Lynch, who previously challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, re-entered the special Republican primary race, adding to the crowded field and influencing market dynamics.
Candidate filing deadline closes for South Carolina special Senate primary
The filing deadline for the special Republican primary closed, finalizing the candidate list and allowing campaigns to focus on the August 11 primary. This event stabilized market expectations ahead of the vote.
Candidate filing period closes for South Carolina special Senate primary
The one-week candidate filing period for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham closed, finalizing the crowded field of candidates including Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Mark Sanford, Russell Fry, and Mark Lynch.
Candidate filing closes for South Carolina special Republican Senate primary
The filing deadline on July 28 finalized the candidate field for the special primary, confirming key contenders including Darline Graham, Ralph Norman, Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and Mark Lynch, setting the stage for the August 11 vote.
Ralph Norman announces Senate candidacy despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 18%27%
U.S. Representative Ralph Norman announced his run for the Senate seat, despite President Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham Nordone, positioning himself as a conservative alternative and gaining endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott.
Ralph Norman formally enters Senate race after gubernatorial primary loss
Ralph Norman jumps to 20%6%
After finishing third in the South Carolina gubernatorial primary, Ralph Norman shifted focus to the Senate race, officially entering the special primary and gaining momentum as a top contender.
Darline Graham Nordone files to run for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 70%12%
Darline Graham Nordone officially submitted paperwork to run in the special primary election, confirming her intention to seek a full term and solidifying her position as a leading candidate.
Darline Graham Nordone files paperwork to run in special primary
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 74%1%
Darline Graham Nordone formally submitted her paperwork to run in the special Republican primary, confirming her candidacy and prompting market confidence in her chances to win the nomination.
Nancy Mace announces she will not run for Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace announced she would not run in the special election to replace Lindsey Graham, citing unfinished business and focusing on justice issues. She later endorsed Ralph Norman in the race.
Mark Sanford announces run for South Carolina Senate special election
Former South Carolina Governor and U.S. Representative Mark Sanford announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to fill Lindsey Graham's seat, adding a well-known figure to the competitive race.
Mark Sanford enters South Carolina Senate special primary race
Mark Sanford plunges to 0%50%
Former South Carolina Governor and U.S. Representative Mark Sanford announced his candidacy for the special primary to replace Lindsey Graham, emphasizing fiscal responsibility and national debt concerns. His entry added a well-known figure to the competitive field.
Mark Sanford announces candidacy for South Carolina Senate special primary
Mark Sanford plunges to 0%50%
Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford announced his run for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, adding a notable name to the crowded field and impacting market prices.
Darline Graham Nordone announces she will run for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 73%7%
After being appointed interim senator, Darline Graham Nordone officially announced her candidacy for a full term in the special Republican primary, solidifying her position as a frontrunner with Trump's endorsement.
Candidate filing opens for South Carolina special Republican Senate primary
The official candidate filing period began, allowing Republican candidates to enter the special primary race. This formalized the field and intensified competition, influencing market prices as candidates' viability became clearer.
Nancy Mace endorses Ralph Norman, declines Senate run
Ralph Norman dips to 18%2%
Rep. Nancy Mace decided not to run for the Senate seat and instead endorsed Ralph Norman, breaking from Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham, which influenced market dynamics by consolidating conservative support behind Norman.
Russell Fry announces candidacy for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Russell Fry rises to 49%4%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his bid for the Senate seat left vacant by Lindsey Graham's death, entering a crowded Republican primary and challenging Trump's endorsed candidate, Darline Graham Nordone. Fry's entry added competition and complexity to the race.
Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 81%18%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the U.S. Senate, urging her to run for the seat and lending significant weight to her candidacy in the special primary.
Nancy Mace decides against running for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace announced she would not run in the special election to replace Lindsey Graham, citing unfinished business and focusing on other priorities. Her withdrawal clarified the Republican field and led her to endorse Ralph Norman.
Rep. Russell Fry announces bid for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Russell Fry rises to 49%4%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, entering a crowded field and challenging the Trump-endorsed Darline Graham Nordone.
Darline Graham Nordone announces candidacy for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 71%13%
Darline Graham Nordone formally announced her candidacy for a full six-year Senate term, capitalizing on her appointment and Trump's endorsement, which further solidified her frontrunner status in the special primary.
Darline Graham launches Senate campaign with Trump endorsement
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 55%43%
Darline Graham officially entered the special primary race with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, boosting her campaign and market standing significantly as she campaigned on continuing her brother's legacy and supporting Trump's agenda.
Darline Graham Nordone announces run for full Senate term with Trump's endorsement
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 80%11%
Darline Graham Nordone announced her candidacy for a full term in the U.S. Senate, receiving President Donald Trump's complete and total endorsement. This endorsement significantly boosted her profile and market position in the special Republican primary.
President Trump endorses Darline Graham in South Carolina Senate special primary
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 68%53%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Darline Graham, boosting her profile and support among Republican voters in South Carolina. This endorsement was significant given Trump's influence in the state GOP and helped propel her polling numbers.
Nancy Mace announces she will not run for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace decided against entering the special primary, narrowing the field and impacting her market price which dropped to zero.
Mark Lynch renews Senate campaign following Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch plunges to 3%42%
Mark Lynch, who challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, re-entered the race for the special Republican primary triggered by Graham’s death, emphasizing conservative leadership and increasing his visibility in the race.
Darline Graham launches campaign for full Senate term with Trump's endorsement
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 55%43%
Darline Graham officially entered the special primary race with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, significantly increasing her visibility and support among Republican voters, reflected in a sharp rise in her market price.
Russell Fry enters South Carolina Senate race
Russell Fry drops to 38%7%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham. Fry positioned himself as a conservative MAGA candidate and received President Trump's reported encouragement to run.
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announces candidacy for Senate seat
Russell Fry jumps to 54%9%
Rep. Russell Fry declared his candidacy for the Senate seat left vacant by Lindsey Graham's death, entering the competitive field and impacting the market dynamics among Republican contenders.
Darline Graham Nordone officially announces Senate campaign
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 70%14%
Darline Graham Nordone announced her candidacy for a full Senate term, leveraging her appointment and Trump's endorsement. This formal entry into the race solidified her position as a leading candidate in the special primary.
Nancy Mace announces she will not run for Senate seat
Ralph Norman plunges to 13%33%
Rep. Nancy Mace announced she would not run in the special election to replace Lindsey Graham, instead focusing on other priorities. She endorsed Ralph Norman, breaking from Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham, affecting the dynamics of the race.
Russell Fry announces bid for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Russell Fry plunges to 14%31%
Congressman Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, joining the crowded field and adding competition to the race, which influenced market dynamics.
Rep. Russell Fry announces candidacy for South Carolina Senate seat
Russell Fry surges to 62%48%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his bid for the Senate seat left vacant by Lindsey Graham's death, entering a crowded Republican primary field. His entry initially boosted his market position as a strong challenger.
Rep. Nancy Mace decides against running for Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace announced she would not run in the special election to replace Lindsey Graham, citing unfinished business and focusing on other priorities, which led to a sharp drop in her market price and endorsement of Ralph Norman.
Darline Graham Nordone announces she will run for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 81%15%
After being appointed to fill her late brother's seat, Darline Graham Nordone announced her candidacy for a full term in the special Republican primary, solidifying her position as a leading candidate with Trump's endorsement.
Rep. Ralph Norman announces Senate run despite Trump’s endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 20%25%
Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the Senate seat despite President Trump endorsing Darline Graham Nordone, positioning himself as a conservative alternative and gaining endorsements from other GOP senators, which increased his market support.
Ralph Norman announces Senate bid despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 18%27%
Congressman Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the Senate seat, running against Trump-endorsed Darline Graham Nordone. He positioned himself as a conservative fighter with endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, challenging the establishment choice.
Rep. Ralph Norman announces run for South Carolina Senate seat
Ralph Norman plunges to 14%31%
Rep. Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, despite lacking Trump's endorsement, positioning himself as a conservative alternative and gaining support from other GOP figures.
Ralph Norman announces Senate run despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman drops to 31%14%
Congressman Ralph Norman announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, despite President Donald Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham Nordone. Norman received endorsements from Senators Rick Scott and Mike Lee, positioning him as a strong conservative contender.
Ralph Norman announces run for Senate seat despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 14%31%
Rep. Ralph Norman announced his candidacy for the Senate seat, challenging Trump-endorsed Darline Graham, which introduced a significant competitive dynamic to the race and influenced market prices.
Ralph Norman announces candidacy for South Carolina Senate seat
Ralph Norman plunges to 14%31%
U.S. Representative Ralph Norman announced his run for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham Nordone. This announcement introduced a strong challenger and affected market dynamics.
Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 56%44%
Former President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the U.S. Senate special primary, urging her to run and highlighting her as a winner. Trump's endorsement significantly boosted her profile and market support in the race.
President Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 58%46%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the special Republican primary, reinforcing her campaign and increasing her market support significantly.
Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 69%53%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the special Republican primary, significantly boosting her campaign and market position.
Darline Graham appointed interim U.S. Senator by Governor McMaster
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 12%6%
Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, to serve the remainder of his term. This appointment elevated her profile and positioned her as a leading candidate in the special primary, impacting her market price positively.
Mark Lynch renews Senate campaign following Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch jumps to 14%8%
Mark Lynch, who had challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, announced he was re-entering the race for the special Republican primary triggered by Graham's death, emphasizing his conservative business background and commitment to finish what he started.
Darline Graham sworn in as interim U.S. Senator for South Carolina
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 12%6%
Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, to serve the remainder of his term, boosting her profile and marking her entry into the special primary race with significant name recognition.
President Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 73%67%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the special Republican primary, significantly boosting her campaign by aligning her with Trump's influential support base in South Carolina.
Darline Graham Nordone sworn in as U.S. Senator and endorsed by President Trump
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 56%44%
Darline Graham Nordone was sworn in at the U.S. Capitol and received a public endorsement from President Donald Trump, who urged her to run for a full Senate term. Trump's endorsement significantly increased her visibility and market support.
President Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 69%51%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the special Republican primary, boosting her profile and market position significantly. Trump's endorsement is influential in South Carolina GOP politics and shifted support towards Nordone.
South Carolina Governor appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 63%57%
Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, Lindsey Graham's sister, as interim U.S. Senator to serve the remainder of her brother's term, making her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the Senate. This appointment immediately positioned her as a key candidate in the upcoming special primary.
Governor Henry McMaster appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 56%50%
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, to serve the remainder of his term, making her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate. This appointment significantly boosted Nordone's profile and market position.
South Carolina announces special primary schedule following Lindsey Graham's death
Following Senator Lindsey Graham's death on July 11, South Carolina election officials released the special primary schedule to select the Republican nominee, setting key dates for filing and voting that shaped the campaign timeline.
Governor McMaster appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 58%52%
Following the sudden death of Senator Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham Nordone, to serve the remainder of his term. This appointment gave her immediate incumbency and name recognition, significantly boosting her position in the upcoming special primary.
Governor appoints Darline Graham to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 15%9%
Following Senator Lindsey Graham's death on July 11, 2026, Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham's sister, to serve the remainder of his term. This appointment gave her immediate incumbency status and increased her visibility ahead of the special primary.
Darline Graham Nordone appointed to fill late Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 56%50%
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, to serve the remainder of his term, making her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate. This appointment gave her immediate incumbency advantage and name recognition in the upcoming special primary.
Nancy Mace considers Senate bid but ultimately declines
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace initially considered running for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat following his death and began polling her viability. However, she later announced she would not run, citing unfinished business and endorsing Ralph Norman instead, impacting the race dynamics.
Rep. Nancy Mace considers but ultimately declines to run for Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace initially considered running for the Senate seat but announced she would not run, citing unfinished business and focusing on justice issues. She later endorsed Ralph Norman, influencing his support base and market position.
Senator Lindsey Graham dies, triggering special primary
The unexpected death of Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11, 2026, created a vacancy and triggered a special Republican primary to select his replacement nominee for the November general election. This event initiated the compressed timeline and political contest reflected in the market.
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