Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by March FOMC projections showing a median fed funds rate path toward low-3% levels by 2027 amid cooling core inflation trends. Despite headline CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year in March—fueled by a 10.9% energy spike from Iran-related oil shocks—core CPI eased to 2.6%, aligning with the Fed's view of transient pressures unworthy of tightening. Robust March nonfarm payrolls at +178,000 and unemployment at 4.3% indicate a stable labor market without overheating, while Chair Powell emphasized looking past energy volatility to sustain progress toward 2% inflation. Recent brokerage revisions, including Deutsche Bank's April 17 call for steady rates, reinforce hold-or-ease expectations ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$908,576 Hac.
$908,576 Hac.
9 Ara 2026
Evet
$908,576 Hac.
$908,576 Hac.
9 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by March FOMC projections showing a median fed funds rate path toward low-3% levels by 2027 amid cooling core inflation trends. Despite headline CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year in March—fueled by a 10.9% energy spike from Iran-related oil shocks—core CPI eased to 2.6%, aligning with the Fed's view of transient pressures unworthy of tightening. Robust March nonfarm payrolls at +178,000 and unemployment at 4.3% indicate a stable labor market without overheating, while Chair Powell emphasized looking past energy volatility to sustain progress toward 2% inflation. Recent brokerage revisions, including Deutsche Bank's April 17 call for steady rates, reinforce hold-or-ease expectations ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Hacim
$908,576Bitiş Tarihi
9 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by March FOMC projections showing a median fed funds rate path toward low-3% levels by 2027 amid cooling core inflation trends. Despite headline CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year in March—fueled by a 10.9% energy spike from Iran-related oil shocks—core CPI eased to 2.6%, aligning with the Fed's view of transient pressures unworthy of tightening. Robust March nonfarm payrolls at +178,000 and unemployment at 4.3% indicate a stable labor market without overheating, while Chair Powell emphasized looking past energy volatility to sustain progress toward 2% inflation. Recent brokerage revisions, including Deutsche Bank's April 17 call for steady rates, reinforce hold-or-ease expectations ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$908,576Bitiş Tarihi
9 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by March FOMC projections showing a median fed funds rate path toward low-3% levels by 2027 amid cooling core inflation trends. Despite headline CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year in March—fueled by a 10.9% energy spike from Iran-related oil shocks—core CPI eased to 2.6%, aligning with the Fed's view of transient pressures unworthy of tightening. Robust March nonfarm payrolls at +178,000 and unemployment at 4.3% indicate a stable labor market without overheating, while Chair Powell emphasized looking past energy volatility to sustain progress toward 2% inflation. Recent brokerage revisions, including Deutsche Bank's April 17 call for steady rates, reinforce hold-or-ease expectations ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular