Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability on consecutive pauses at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid surging energy costs—and resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's March dot plot median still envisions just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year, as February PCE held steady at 2.8%. With the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, these data points have diminished near-term easing expectations ahead of next week's April policy session.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiPause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.9%
YENİ
YENİ
29 Tem 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
3%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.9%
YENİ
YENİ
29 Tem 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$829 Hac.
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$676 Hac.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$730 Hac.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$756 Hac.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,380 Hac.
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$936 Hac.
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$545 Hac.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$739 Hac.
3%
Other
$906 Hac.
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability on consecutive pauses at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid surging energy costs—and resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's March dot plot median still envisions just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year, as February PCE held steady at 2.8%. With the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, these data points have diminished near-term easing expectations ahead of next week's April policy session.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Hacim
$7,495Bitiş Tarihi
29 Tem 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability on consecutive pauses at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid surging energy costs—and resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's March dot plot median still envisions just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year, as February PCE held steady at 2.8%. With the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, these data points have diminished near-term easing expectations ahead of next week's April policy session.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Hacim
$7,495Bitiş Tarihi
29 Tem 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability on consecutive pauses at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid surging energy costs—and resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's March dot plot median still envisions just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year, as February PCE held steady at 2.8%. With the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, these data points have diminished near-term easing expectations ahead of next week's April policy session.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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