Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the June 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance reinforced by the March 17-18 minutes released April 8. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—driven by war-related oil shocks, while low jobless claims near 219,000 signal labor market resilience. The current 3.50%-3.75% range aligns with the Fed's dot plot projecting just one cut in 2026, tempering easing bets. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI data (due May 12) or weakening nonfarm payrolls prompting a 25 bps cut, though hike odds remain marginal at 2.4%-0.7%.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiHaziran'da Fed Kararı mı?
Haziran'da Fed Kararı mı?
Değişiklik yok 92%
25 baz puan düşüş 6%
25 baz puan artış 2.4%
50+ baz puanlık düşüş 1.1%
$7,989,407 Hac.
$7,989,407 Hac.
17 Haz 2026
50+ baz puanlık düşüş
1%
25 baz puan düşüş
6%
Değişiklik yok
92%
25 baz puan artış
2%
50+ baz puan artış
1%
Değişiklik yok 92%
25 baz puan düşüş 6%
25 baz puan artış 2.4%
50+ baz puanlık düşüş 1.1%
$7,989,407 Hac.
$7,989,407 Hac.
17 Haz 2026
50+ baz puanlık düşüş
$2,330,579 Hac.
1%
25 baz puan düşüş
$1,211,735 Hac.
6%
Değişiklik yok
$1,496,667 Hac.
92%
25 baz puan artış
$1,630,558 Hac.
2%
50+ baz puan artış
$1,319,869 Hac.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the June 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance reinforced by the March 17-18 minutes released April 8. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—driven by war-related oil shocks, while low jobless claims near 219,000 signal labor market resilience. The current 3.50%-3.75% range aligns with the Fed's dot plot projecting just one cut in 2026, tempering easing bets. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI data (due May 12) or weakening nonfarm payrolls prompting a 25 bps cut, though hike odds remain marginal at 2.4%-0.7%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Hacim
$7,989,407Bitiş Tarihi
17 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the June 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance reinforced by the March 17-18 minutes released April 8. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—driven by war-related oil shocks, while low jobless claims near 219,000 signal labor market resilience. The current 3.50%-3.75% range aligns with the Fed's dot plot projecting just one cut in 2026, tempering easing bets. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI data (due May 12) or weakening nonfarm payrolls prompting a 25 bps cut, though hike odds remain marginal at 2.4%-0.7%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Hacim
$7,989,407Bitiş Tarihi
17 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the June 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance reinforced by the March 17-18 minutes released April 8. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—driven by war-related oil shocks, while low jobless claims near 219,000 signal labor market resilience. The current 3.50%-3.75% range aligns with the Fed's dot plot projecting just one cut in 2026, tempering easing bets. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI data (due May 12) or weakening nonfarm payrolls prompting a 25 bps cut, though hike odds remain marginal at 2.4%-0.7%.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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