Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.1% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—and solid nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 jobs, signaling persistent inflation above the 2% target alongside a resilient labor market. March FOMC minutes released April 8 reinforced this stance, with nearly all officials endorsing the pause amid economic uncertainty, while fed funds futures imply an effective rate near 3.64%. Scenarios challenging this include unexpectedly soft April CPI data (due May 12 post-meeting) or weakening jobless claims, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts absent acute downside risks.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiNisan ayında Fed kararı mı?
Nisan ayında Fed kararı mı?
Değişiklik yok 99.0%
25 baz puan düşüş <1%
25+ baz puan artış <1%
50+ bp düşüş <1%
$97,214,462 Hac.
$97,214,462 Hac.
29 Nis 2026
50+ bp düşüş
<1%
25 baz puan düşüş
<1%
Değişiklik yok
99%
25+ baz puan artış
<1%
Değişiklik yok 99.0%
25 baz puan düşüş <1%
25+ baz puan artış <1%
50+ bp düşüş <1%
$97,214,462 Hac.
$97,214,462 Hac.
29 Nis 2026
50+ bp düşüş
$35,371,480 Hac.
<1%
25 baz puan düşüş
$19,825,075 Hac.
<1%
Değişiklik yok
$19,733,656 Hac.
99%
25+ baz puan artış
$22,284,539 Hac.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.1% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—and solid nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 jobs, signaling persistent inflation above the 2% target alongside a resilient labor market. March FOMC minutes released April 8 reinforced this stance, with nearly all officials endorsing the pause amid economic uncertainty, while fed funds futures imply an effective rate near 3.64%. Scenarios challenging this include unexpectedly soft April CPI data (due May 12 post-meeting) or weakening jobless claims, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts absent acute downside risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Hacim
$97,214,462Bitiş Tarihi
29 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.1% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—and solid nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 jobs, signaling persistent inflation above the 2% target alongside a resilient labor market. March FOMC minutes released April 8 reinforced this stance, with nearly all officials endorsing the pause amid economic uncertainty, while fed funds futures imply an effective rate near 3.64%. Scenarios challenging this include unexpectedly soft April CPI data (due May 12 post-meeting) or weakening jobless claims, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts absent acute downside risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Hacim
$97,214,462Bitiş Tarihi
29 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.1% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—and solid nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 jobs, signaling persistent inflation above the 2% target alongside a resilient labor market. March FOMC minutes released April 8 reinforced this stance, with nearly all officials endorsing the pause amid economic uncertainty, while fed funds futures imply an effective rate near 3.64%. Scenarios challenging this include unexpectedly soft April CPI data (due May 12 post-meeting) or weakening jobless claims, though proximity to resolution limits major shifts absent acute downside risks.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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