Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-zero implied probability for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, aligning with CME FedWatch odds showing over 98% chance of holding the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%. This positioning persists despite March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by war-related oil shocks—and solid nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. March FOMC minutes indicated some officials' growing openness to hikes amid elevated inflation projections, contrasting the dot plot's single 2026 rate cut forecast. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI (early May release) and payrolls data, potentially reshaping June meeting expectations.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$31,311 Hac.
9 Ara 2026
April Meeting
1%
June Meeting
4%
July Meeting
18%
September Meeting
16%
October Meeting
22%
$31,311 Hac.
April Meeting
$24,300 Hac.
1%
June Meeting
$6,580 Hac.
4%
July Meeting
$372 Hac.
18%
September Meeting
$3 Hac.
16%
October Meeting
$55 Hac.
22%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-zero implied probability for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, aligning with CME FedWatch odds showing over 98% chance of holding the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%. This positioning persists despite March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by war-related oil shocks—and solid nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. March FOMC minutes indicated some officials' growing openness to hikes amid elevated inflation projections, contrasting the dot plot's single 2026 rate cut forecast. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI (early May release) and payrolls data, potentially reshaping June meeting expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Hacim
$31,311Bitiş Tarihi
29 Eki 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-zero implied probability for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, aligning with CME FedWatch odds showing over 98% chance of holding the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%. This positioning persists despite March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by war-related oil shocks—and solid nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. March FOMC minutes indicated some officials' growing openness to hikes amid elevated inflation projections, contrasting the dot plot's single 2026 rate cut forecast. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI (early May release) and payrolls data, potentially reshaping June meeting expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$31,311Bitiş Tarihi
29 Eki 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-zero implied probability for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, aligning with CME FedWatch odds showing over 98% chance of holding the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%. This positioning persists despite March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by war-related oil shocks—and solid nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. March FOMC minutes indicated some officials' growing openness to hikes amid elevated inflation projections, contrasting the dot plot's single 2026 rate cut forecast. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI (early May release) and payrolls data, potentially reshaping June meeting expectations.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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