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US strikes Iran by...?

Market icon

US strikes Iran by...?

$529,033,417 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$529,033,417 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$19,193 Vol.

No

January 11

$3,035,454 Vol.

No

January 12

$1,743,135 Vol.

No

January 13

$3,335,543 Vol.

No

January 14

$13,619,742 Vol.

No

January 15

$7,975,002 Vol.

No

January 16

$8,491,723 Vol.

No

January 17

$3,823,998 Vol.

No

January 18

$5,468,913 Vol.

No

January 23

$12,296,618 Vol.

No

January 24

$2,924,662 Vol.

No

January 25

$2,703,692 Vol.

No

January 26

$6,908,538 Vol.

No

January 27

$2,498,074 Vol.

No

January 28

$1,950,685 Vol.

No

January 29

$3,064,539 Vol.

No

January 30

$3,469,659 Vol.

No

January 31

$41,754,060 Vol.

No

February 1

$6,629,658 Vol.

No

February 2

$4,246,232 Vol.

No

February 3

$3,763,165 Vol.

No

February 4

$3,844,340 Vol.

No

February 5

$4,461,531 Vol.

No

February 6

$9,750,256 Vol.

No

February 7

$3,615,405 Vol.

No

February 8

$3,821,142 Vol.

No

February 9

$17,561,112 Vol.

No

February 10

$10,496,937 Vol.

No

February 11

$4,493,524 Vol.

No

February 12

$4,187,886 Vol.

No

February 13

$15,146,244 Vol.

No

February 14

$4,140,716 Vol.

No

February 15

$4,542,348 Vol.

No

February 16

$4,855,990 Vol.

No

February 17

$5,599,406 Vol.

No

February 18

$7,408,763 Vol.

No

February 19

$8,798,853 Vol.

No

February 20

$18,810,054 Vol.

No

February 21

$12,250,013 Vol.

No

February 22

$12,611,170 Vol.

No

February 23

$14,022,419 Vol.

No

February 24

$16,942,274 Vol.

No

February 25

$10,517,389 Vol.

No

February 26

$14,489,547 Vol.

No

February 27

$25,087,849 Vol.

No

February 28

$89,652,867 Vol.

Yes

March 1

$8,093,539 Vol.

Yes

March 2

$3,812,922 Vol.

Yes

March 3

$1,917,863 Vol.

Yes

March 4

$1,376,485 Vol.

Yes

March 5

$1,565,799 Vol.

Yes

March 6

$1,008,204 Vol.

Yes

March 7

$2,470,666 Vol.

Yes

March 8

$539,454 Vol.

Yes

March 9

$379,810 Vol.

Yes

March 10

$269,970 Vol.

Yes

March 11

$190,483 Vol.

Yes

March 12

$197,658 Vol.

Yes

March 13

$283,107 Vol.

Yes

March 14

$357,946 Vol.

Yes

March 15

$6,642,886 Vol.

Yes

March 31

$22,213,247 Vol.

Yes

June 30

$9,193,272 Vol.

Yes

December 31

$1,689,785 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$529,033,417
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Dec 22, 2025, 11:29 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Na-propose ang outcome: No

Walang dispute

Pinal na outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$529,033,417
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Dec 22, 2025, 11:29 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Na-propose ang outcome: No

Walang dispute

Pinal na outcome: No

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "US strikes Iran by...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 64+ posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "February 28" sa 100%, sinusundan ng "March 1" sa 100%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 100¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "US strikes Iran by...?" ay naka-generate ng $529 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Dec 22, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "US strikes Iran by...?," i-browse ang 64+ available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "US strikes Iran by...?" ay "February 28" sa 100%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "March 1" sa 100%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "US strikes Iran by...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.