US economic sanctions and fuel shipment seizures have intensified pressure on Cuba in recent weeks, while Pentagon contingency planning—including Army Reserve assessments for support units to Southern Command—has fueled speculation about possible operations. President Trump has repeatedly stated that military action is unlikely, predicting instead that the two countries will reach a deal and that Cuba’s government will fall through internal change. Havana has responded by ramping up defensive preparations under its “Year of Preparation for Defense,” maintaining communication channels with Washington but rejecting formal negotiations or political concessions. China has voiced support for Cuba amid the standoff. These dynamics—escalating sanctions paired with public de-escalation signals from the US side—shape trader assessments of near-term military action risks.