Ongoing bilateral security cooperation against Mexican cartels, including joint training and mirror border operations with hundreds of troops and anti-drone systems on both sides of the Rio Grande, continues to shape trader views on the low probability of a US strike on Mexican soil. Recent tensions from an alleged late-September cross-border shooting incident prompted deployments but produced no confirmed escalation, with Mexican officials requesting evidence and reaffirming sovereignty principles. The Trump administration has designated cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and conducted prior strikes on suspected vessels at sea, yet Mexico has consistently rejected unilateral intervention while advancing extraditions and seizures through established channels. Scheduled diplomatic and operational contacts through year-end remain the primary near-term variables.