**OpenAI’s recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8, 2026, is the primary catalyst shaping market-implied odds.** Traders assign a 53.5% probability to no IPO by year-end 2026 because the company stated it “has not decided on timing yet” and prefers remaining private for certain initiatives, consistent with typical 60- to 90-day SEC review plus roadshow timelines that could push listing into 2027. The 21.1% probability on a $1T–1.25T close reflects OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 round and underwriter targets near $1 trillion, tempered by ongoing heavy losses and regulatory scrutiny. Competitive AI IPO activity, including Anthropic’s filing, and strong investor demand for large language model leaders support the smaller 13.9% chance of $1.5T+, while lower buckets capture downside risk from execution delays or valuation compression.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOpenAI maintains no fixed IPO date, emphasizing flexibility and private growth
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 81%1%
OpenAI reiterated that it has not finalized IPO timing, preferring to remain private for certain initiatives, which sustained market uncertainty and a high probability that no IPO would occur by end of 2026.
Market consensus solidifies on no OpenAI IPO by end of 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 82%3%
As of mid-July 2026, prediction markets strongly favor the outcome that OpenAI will not have an IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting accumulated delays, internal concerns, and competitive dynamics.
Apple sues OpenAI and former employees over hardware trade secrets
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 25%4%
Apple filed a lawsuit against OpenAI and former employees alleging hardware trade secret violations, adding legal uncertainty that could impact OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation.
OpenAI faces legal and competitive challenges ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%20%
Apple sued OpenAI over hardware trade secrets, and OpenAI's ChatGPT Mac update drew criticism, adding uncertainty to the IPO outlook and impacting market sentiment on valuation and timing.
OpenAI confirms no fixed IPO date, emphasizing option to go public later
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%33%
OpenAI reiterated that it has not decided on IPO timing and prefers remaining private for certain initiatives, consistent with typical SEC review and roadshow timelines that could push listing into 2027. This maintained elevated market odds for no IPO by end of 2026.
OpenAI confirms confidential IPO filing but timing remains undecided
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%33%
OpenAI publicly confirmed its confidential S-1 filing but reiterated that it has not decided on the timing of its IPO, maintaining the option to go public sooner if conditions are favorable. This confirmation solidified market expectations of an IPO in the near future but with significant timing uncertainty.
OpenAI maintains IPO timing uncertainty, market prices high chance of no IPO in 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%34%
As of early July 2026, OpenAI has not announced a definitive IPO date, and market prices reflect a strong belief that no IPO will occur by the end of 2026. This is evidenced by the high market price for the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome at 79%.
Trump administration to receive 5% stake in OpenAI as part of IPO talks
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 59%14%
Reports emerged that OpenAI proposed handing the Trump administration a 5% stake as part of IPO negotiations. This unusual political involvement added complexity and uncertainty to the IPO process, likely increasing market skepticism about the IPO occurring in 2026.
OpenAI weighs 2027 IPO, cites market volatility
<500B dips to 0%1%
The Motley Fool noted that OpenAI was still weighing a 2027 IPO, which caused a modest dip in the market’s confidence for a 2026 listing, especially the highest cap brackets.
OpenAI proposes donating 5% equity to US sovereign wealth fund
OpenAI's proposal to donate 5% of its equity to a US sovereign wealth fund suggests a strategic move that may impact its IPO plans or valuation, influencing market expectations about the company's public offering prospects.
Market prices reflect strong belief OpenAI will not IPO by end of 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%32%
By early July 2026, market prices for "No IPO by December 31, 2026" reached 76%, indicating strong trader consensus that OpenAI will delay its IPO beyond 2026, with very low probabilities assigned to all valuation brackets.
OpenAI considers 2027 IPO with $1 trillion valuation amid market volatility concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%34%
OpenAI advisors reportedly suggest delaying the IPO to 2027 due to market volatility concerns, especially after the SpaceX IPO experience. This dampened near-term IPO expectations and increased market skepticism about a 2026 IPO.
Market reacts to cautious IPO timing amid SpaceX public debut concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 71%3%
Following SpaceX's volatile public market debut, OpenAI's advisors reportedly adopted a cautious approach to timing the IPO, leading to increased market skepticism about a 2026 IPO and boosting the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome probability.
Market traders predict OpenAI IPO announcement delayed to early 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 26%5%
Prediction market traders on Kalshi adjusted their expectations, pricing a 59% chance of OpenAI IPO announcement by March 1, 2027, reflecting growing consensus of a delay beyond 2026 due to cautious company strategy and market conditions.
OpenAI begins major fundraising to support capital needs before IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 56%15%
OpenAI's effort to raise $100 billion to support capital expenditures before IPO raised concerns about financial pressures, dampening market optimism for an imminent IPO and lowering prices for IPO-related outcomes.
New York Times reports OpenAI IPO delayed to 2027
A New York Times report suggested OpenAI postponed its IPO until 2027, reflecting a cautious approach influenced by market conditions and competitive pressures, which further dampened 2026 IPO expectations.
SoftBank shares fall amid OpenAI IPO timing uncertainty
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
SoftBank's stock dropped over 12% due to concerns about OpenAI delaying its IPO, highlighting investor sensitivity to the timing of OpenAI's public offering and its impact on related investments.
Kalshi traders predict OpenAI IPO announcement likely in early 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 66%13%
Prediction market traders on Kalshi shifted odds toward an early 2027 IPO announcement, reflecting growing market consensus of a delay beyond 2026.
Market prices shift to favor OpenAI IPO delay to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%17%
Following multiple reports and cautious statements from OpenAI and its CFO, prediction markets adjusted sharply downward on the likelihood of a 2026 IPO, increasing the probability of no IPO by December 31, 2026.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 69%1%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others, removing a legal overhang and potentially clearing a path for OpenAI's IPO. This legal resolution was positive but did not immediately accelerate IPO timing.
Sam Altman advocates for AI safety and regulatory frameworks
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 65%6%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman publicly emphasized the importance of AI safety and the need for regulatory frameworks. This statement may have influenced investor perceptions about OpenAI's future and IPO timing, contributing to market price movements favoring the 'No IPO' outcome.
Reports emerge that OpenAI CFO urges IPO delay to 2027 over revenue and spending concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 48%22%
Reports that CFO Sarah Friar advocated delaying the IPO to 2027 due to missed revenue targets and large compute spending commitments caused market confidence in a 2026 IPO to drop sharply, increasing the probability of no IPO by end of 2026 and lowering valuations for all market cap brackets.
Reports emerge of OpenAI CFO urging IPO delay to 2027 over financial concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 1%29%
Reports indicated OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar advocated delaying the IPO to 2027 due to missed revenue targets and large compute spending commitments, causing market confidence in a 2026 IPO to decline sharply.
White House accelerates plans for AI model standards
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%17%
The White House announced plans to accelerate AI model standards, which could impact AI companies including OpenAI. This regulatory development may have increased uncertainty about OpenAI's IPO prospects and valuation, influencing market prices toward a higher probability of no IPO within 2026.
Reports emerge of OpenAI IPO delay to 2027 amid financial and market concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 48%8%
Multiple reports and analyses indicated OpenAI's IPO might be delayed until 2027 due to cautious advisors and market conditions, shifting trader expectations and increasing the probability of no IPO by end of 2026.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 25%3%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing and estimated 70% chance of announcement by December 2026 increased competitive pressure on OpenAI, contributing to market uncertainty and delay expectations for OpenAI's IPO.
US stocks gain on blockbuster SpaceX IPO and chip stock volatility
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 59%14%
The US stock market experienced significant gains driven by the blockbuster SpaceX IPO and volatility in chip stocks. While not directly about OpenAI, this event influenced market sentiment around tech IPOs, possibly affecting OpenAI IPO expectations and contributing to price fluctuations in the market.
OpenAI's financial disclosures reveal massive losses and high revenue growth
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%31%
Audited financial documents revealed OpenAI posted a $38.5 billion net loss in 2025 on $13.07 billion revenue, with projected $14 billion losses in 2026. These disclosures highlighted the company's significant cash burn and raised concerns about profitability, impacting market sentiment on IPO valuation and timing.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman emphasizes no rush for IPO, targeting $1 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 46%19%
Sam Altman stated that OpenAI is not in a hurry to go public and insists on achieving a $1 trillion valuation, signaling a cautious approach to the IPO timing. This statement reinforced market expectations of a delayed IPO and contributed to the sustained high probability of no IPO by end of 2026.
OpenAI reiterates IPO timing undecided after confidential filing leak
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%23%
OpenAI reiterated that although it has confidentially filed for an IPO, the timing remains undecided and the company may remain private longer. This statement maintained market uncertainty and supported the high probability of 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome.
Market optimism rises on OpenAI IPO potential despite delays
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%30%
Despite delays, renewed market optimism emerged about OpenAI's eventual IPO, reflected in a price rebound for the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome, as investors balanced delay risks with the company's strong AI market position.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, removing legal obstacle to IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%26%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal uncertainty and positively impacting market sentiment about OpenAI's IPO prospects, though timing remained uncertain.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlines AI vision amid IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 31%3%
Sam Altman published a detailed post on AI's future and OpenAI's strategic direction, reinforcing the company's long-term vision and the complexity of timing its IPO, which influenced market cautiousness.
OpenAI CEO confirms IPO timing uncertainty, leaning toward 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 47%17%
Following reports of delay, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirmed the IPO timing remains uncertain and suggested a possible delay to 2027, reinforcing market skepticism about a 2026 IPO and lowering near-term IPO outcome prices.
SoftBank shares plunge over 12% on OpenAI IPO delay reports
Following reports that OpenAI is delaying its IPO to 2027 to maintain a $1 trillion valuation, SoftBank's shares plunged over 12% due to its significant $65 billion stake in OpenAI. The delay raised concerns about the timing of returns on SoftBank's investment, impacting market sentiment negatively.
Kalshi traders price OpenAI IPO announcement likely in early 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 80%5%
Prediction market traders on Kalshi adjusted their odds to reflect a higher probability of OpenAI announcing its IPO in early 2027, influenced by reports of delays and cautious market sentiment. This shift reinforced the market's favoring of the "No IPO by December 31, 2026" outcome.
SoftBank shares fall over 12% after OpenAI IPO delay reports
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
Following reports of OpenAI's IPO delay, SoftBank Group shares fell more than 12%, erasing roughly $38 billion in market capitalization. This reflected investor concern over the timing of OpenAI's public offering and its impact on SoftBank's large investment in the company.
Reports emerge of OpenAI IPO delay to 2027 due to market caution
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 53%26%
Reports indicated OpenAI's IPO might be delayed to 2027, influenced by cautious advisors and concerns from SpaceX's public market debut, leading to increased market skepticism about a 2026 IPO.
Kalshi traders price increased odds of OpenAI IPO delay to 2027 after reports
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 80%5%
Following reports of a 2027 IPO delay, Kalshi prediction markets adjusted odds, showing increased probability for no IPO by end of 2026 and a later IPO announcement. This reflected market consensus on the delay and cautious investor sentiment.
Kalshi traders adjust IPO announcement odds to favor 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 76%2%
Following reports of delays and cautious advisor approaches, Kalshi prediction markets shifted odds to favor an OpenAI IPO announcement in early 2027 rather than 2026. This reflected growing market consensus on postponement and uncertainty about near-term IPO valuation.
Market speculation rises on delayed OpenAI IPO announcement
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%31%
Following reports of a potential IPO delay, market speculation increased that OpenAI would not announce an IPO in 2026, with traders on prediction platforms adjusting probabilities accordingly. This reflected growing uncertainty about the IPO timing and valuation.
OpenAI CFO signals preference for 2027 IPO listing
Statements from OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar in late June 2026 indicated a preference for a 2027 IPO listing to ensure financial stability and meet valuation targets, reinforcing market expectations of a delayed IPO and influencing trading odds toward no IPO in 2026.
OpenAI CFO warns IPO may be delayed to 2027
1.5T+ drops to 4%8%
CFO Sarah Friar publicly expressed concerns that OpenAI was not ready for a 2026 IPO due to massive compute spending and reporting requirements. The comment spooked traders and pushed the market price down, especially for the top‑tier valuation outcomes.
OpenAI confirms IPO delay, citing market volatility and valuation concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 47%15%
Following media reports, OpenAI acknowledged no fixed IPO date and indicated the option to go public sooner or later depending on market conditions. The delay reflects concerns about achieving a $1 trillion valuation amid volatile tech markets and competition.
Reports indicate OpenAI delaying IPO beyond 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%34%
News surfaced that OpenAI was delaying its IPO, with traders estimating a 59% chance of an IPO announcement by March 2027, reducing confidence in a 2026 IPO and increasing the likelihood of "No IPO by December 31, 2026."
Market reacts to OpenAI IPO delay and tech selloff
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 82%3%
Following reports of OpenAI pushing its IPO to 2027 amid a broad tech selloff, chip and memory stocks slid, and even SpaceX gave back some debut gains. This increased market skepticism about a near-term OpenAI IPO and high valuation outcomes.
OpenAI announces confidential IPO filing to preempt leaks
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%34%
OpenAI publicly announced its confidential IPO filing to control the narrative ahead of expected leaks, emphasizing the complexity of the decision to go public. This transparency boosted market confidence slightly, reflected in a price rebound for the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome.
OpenAI confidentially filed IPO on June 8, 2026, but timing uncertain
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%28%
On June 26, 2026, reports confirmed OpenAI had confidentially filed for IPO on June 8 but had not decided on timing, reinforcing market expectations of a delayed IPO beyond 2026 and increasing the probability of no IPO by year-end.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman emphasizes AI's transformative potential amid IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%32%
Sam Altman published a post outlining AI's broad societal impact and OpenAI's vision, reinforcing the company's long-term growth potential despite IPO timing uncertainties. This helped partially restore market confidence in OpenAI's future valuation.
OpenAI IPO delay reports cause selloff in AI-related cryptocurrencies and market caution
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 47%19%
Following reports that OpenAI is leaning toward delaying its IPO until 2027, cryptocurrencies tied to decentralized AI and related markets sold off sharply. This reflected broader investor caution about the timing and valuation of OpenAI’s public debut, reinforcing market skepticism about a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI IPO delay causes AI token market selloff
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 40%5%
News of OpenAI's IPO delay triggered a selloff in AI-related cryptocurrencies and tokens, reflecting broader market concerns about the timing and enthusiasm for AI public offerings.
Reports indicate OpenAI IPO delayed to 2027, CFO Sarah Friar signals caution
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 79%2%
The New York Times and other sources reported that OpenAI is leaning toward a 2027 IPO rather than 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar emphasizing financial stability and valuation targets. This news caused market participants to lower expectations for a 2026 IPO, increasing the probability of no IPO by end of 2026.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO delayed to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%44%
Media reports indicated that OpenAI was considering postponing its IPO until 2027 due to market conditions and financial readiness concerns, causing a drop in market confidence for a 2026 IPO.
Reports emerge that OpenAI may delay IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's volatile debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%31%
Following SpaceX's IPO in June 2026, which saw a high valuation but subsequent sharp stock decline, OpenAI's advisers cautioned that market conditions and retail investor enthusiasm may not support OpenAI's $1 trillion valuation target. This led to reports that OpenAI is leaning toward delaying its IPO until 2027, causing a significant increase in the market probability of no IPO in 2026.
Reports emerge that OpenAI is leaning toward delaying IPO until 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%28%
Following SpaceX's IPO and market volatility, OpenAI's advisers cautioned about retail investor enthusiasm, leading to reports that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027, which caused a significant drop in market odds for a 2026 IPO.
Reports indicate OpenAI IPO likely delayed to 2027 due to market conditions
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 82%3%
Multiple sources reported that OpenAI is leaning toward delaying its IPO until 2027, influenced by the volatile tech market and SpaceX's large but volatile IPO. This caused a significant increase in market pricing for 'No IPO by December 31, 2026'.
Reports emerge OpenAI may delay IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's volatile debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 46%24%
Following SpaceX's IPO volatility and broader tech market downturn, OpenAI's advisers cautioned about retail investor enthusiasm, leading to reports that OpenAI might postpone its IPO until 2027. This caused a sharp decline in market prices for near-term IPO dates and increased the probability of no IPO by end of 2026.
Reports indicate OpenAI leaning toward 2027 IPO listing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 26%27%
Media reports and insider commentary suggested OpenAI's leadership was favoring a 2027 IPO rather than 2026, citing the need for a $1 trillion valuation and market conditions. This news caused a significant drop in market confidence for a 2026 IPO, increasing the probability of no IPO by year-end 2026.
New York Times reports OpenAI IPO likely delayed to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%20%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI's advisers are urging caution and a slower IPO timeline due to financial challenges and market volatility following SpaceX's IPO, leading to market expectations shifting toward a 2027 IPO.
Reports indicate OpenAI delays IPO to 2027 amid market volatility
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%21%
In late June 2026, multiple reports including from The New York Times and Reuters indicated that OpenAI was leaning toward delaying its IPO until 2027 due to volatile tech markets and concerns about retail investor enthusiasm. This shift significantly increased the market's probability of no IPO in 2026.
OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO until 2027 after SpaceX IPO performance
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 29%16%
Following SpaceX's volatile IPO debut and broader market volatility, OpenAI's executives reportedly shifted toward postponing their IPO to 2027 to preserve valuation and avoid weak retail investor demand.
OpenAI executives lean toward delaying IPO until 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 82%6%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI executives were considering postponing the IPO to 2027 due to market conditions and recent large IPOs like SpaceX, causing market confidence in a 2026 IPO to decline.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO readiness and retail investor share allocation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 71%15%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar's statements about preparing to act like a public company and reserving shares for retail investors boosted market confidence in a future IPO, causing a rebound in market prices for the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome.
OpenAI CFO reportedly pushes to delay IPO amid financial concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%31%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about the company's high cash burn and losses, advocating for delaying the IPO to 2027 to stabilize finances and avoid a lower valuation. This internal push contributed to market reassessment of IPO timing and valuation.
OpenAI IPO delay causes tech and chip stocks to slide
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%36%
Reports of OpenAI delaying its IPO to 2027 led to a selloff in chip stocks and tech shares, reflecting investor concerns about the timing and valuation of AI-related IPOs and the broader tech market volatility.
Reports suggest OpenAI leaning toward delaying IPO to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%28%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI executives appeared to be reconsidering a 2026 IPO, leaning toward a 2027 public debut due to market conditions and competitive pressures, causing market uncertainty.
OpenAI considers delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's rocky debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%29%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is leaning toward postponing its IPO from late 2026 to 2027, influenced by the underwhelming market debut of SpaceX and broader tech market slumps. This shift dampened expectations for a 2026 IPO, causing market prices for 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' to rise significantly.
OpenAI Leans Toward Delaying Initial Public Offering Until 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%32%
Reports emerged that OpenAI executives and advisers are leaning toward holding off on the IPO until 2027 due to valuation concerns and market conditions, causing 'No IPO' odds to surge.
OpenAI announces Guaranteed Capacity product for long-term compute access
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%8%
OpenAI introduced long-term compute capacity contracts, signaling significant infrastructure commitments that highlight the company's massive capital needs, which may delay IPO timing and affect valuation expectations.
Anthropic IPO filing intensifies AI IPO competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 28%3%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing and potential earlier listing put pressure on OpenAI, affecting market expectations and increasing uncertainty about OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO delayed to 2027 amid internal concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 47%19%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar recommended delaying the IPO to 2027 due to readiness and financial reporting challenges, dampening market expectations for a 2026 IPO and boosting the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 45%1%
Anthropic, OpenAI's main competitor, confidentially filed for an IPO, raising market expectations for its public debut in 2026. This development increased pressure on OpenAI and contributed to speculation about its IPO timing and strategy.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signals IPO delay due to readiness concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 45%22%
Reports emerged that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO, suggesting a possible delay to 2027. This dampened market expectations for an imminent IPO and lowered confidence in higher valuation brackets.
SpaceX IPO sets record, intensifying pressure on OpenAI's IPO timeline
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 45%12%
SpaceX's successful IPO and record valuation heightened market focus on AI-related IPOs, increasing pressure on OpenAI to proceed with its own IPO, causing volatility and shifts in market-implied probabilities for OpenAI's IPO outcomes.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman emphasizes cautious IPO timing despite filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 44%26%
Sam Altman stated that OpenAI had not decided on IPO timing and that remaining private offered advantages, which contributed to market skepticism about an imminent IPO and kept probabilities for near-term IPO outcomes low.
Reports highlight OpenAI’s massive revenue growth and infrastructure spending ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 29%18%
Reports revealed OpenAI's projected 2026 revenue exceeding $25 billion but with a $27 billion cash burn, raising concerns about profitability and influencing market skepticism on earlier IPO dates. This contributed to fluctuating market probabilities and tempered enthusiasm for a near-term IPO.
OpenAI partnership with Visa announced amid IPO preparations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%8%
OpenAI announced a strategic partnership with Visa to support secure payments in AI-driven commerce, signaling business expansion and strengthening enterprise positioning ahead of a potential IPO. This partnership positively influenced market sentiment about OpenAI's growth prospects.
Leaked audited financials reveal OpenAI's $38.5 billion net loss in 2025
Audited financial documents leaked and verified by the Financial Times revealed OpenAI's massive $38.5 billion net loss in 2025 on $13.07 billion revenue, highlighting the company's significant cash burn and raising concerns about profitability ahead of the IPO.
OpenAI discloses Q1 2026 financials showing $5.7 billion revenue and $3.7 billion cash burn
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 48%9%
OpenAI revealed significant revenue alongside high cash burn in Q1 2026, highlighting financial challenges ahead of its IPO and contributing to market uncertainty about valuation and timing.
SpaceX goes public in blockbuster IPO, shifting market attention to mega-cap tech valuations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 48%22%
SpaceX successfully completed its highly anticipated initial public offering, immediately shifting investor focus and capital toward private tech giants and raising questions about when OpenAI might follow suit.
OpenAI discloses financial metrics showing high revenue and losses ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 48%22%
OpenAI revealed in shareholder documents that it generated $5.7 billion in Q1 2026 revenue but also incurred $3.7 billion in cash burn, highlighting the company's aggressive spending and raising investor concerns about profitability and valuation sustainability ahead of the IPO.
OpenAI reports $38.5 billion net loss for 2025, raising IPO concerns
Audited financial documents released in mid-June 2026 revealed OpenAI's $38.5 billion net loss in 2025, highlighting the company's massive spending and losses. This disclosure raised concerns about the company's profitability and IPO valuation, dampening market enthusiasm for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI announces strategic partnership with Visa amid IPO preparations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%10%
OpenAI partnered with Visa to support secure AI-driven payments, signaling enterprise growth focus and IPO readiness, which influenced market expectations positively.
OpenAI discloses $34 billion spending ahead of planned IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%22%
Reports revealed OpenAI's massive spending in 2025, including $19 billion on R&D, highlighting financial challenges that may affect IPO timing and valuation, tempering market enthusiasm.
Reports emerge of OpenAI IPO delay to 2027 influenced by SpaceX market debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 46%22%
Multiple reports indicated OpenAI's IPO was delayed to 2027 due to cautious advisors concerned about market conditions, especially after SpaceX's volatile public debut. This news shifted market sentiment strongly toward no IPO in 2026, reflected in falling prices for IPO outcomes.
OpenAI CFO urges delaying IPO to 2027 citing revenue and spending concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 26%40%
Reports emerged that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar advocated postponing the IPO to 2027 due to missed revenue targets and large compute spending commitments, causing market confidence in a 2026 IPO to decline sharply.
Reports emerge of OpenAI CFO urging IPO delay to 2027 over revenue and spending concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 28%12%
Reports that CFO Sarah Friar advocated delaying the IPO to 2027 due to missed revenue targets and large compute spending commitments caused market confidence in a 2026 IPO to wane significantly.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar expresses reservations about 2026 IPO readiness
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 29%31%
Reports surfaced that CFO Sarah Friar advocated delaying the IPO to 2027 due to financial and operational concerns, including heavy spending and the need to meet public company reporting standards. This internal conflict introduced market skepticism and caused a decline in near-term IPO optimism.
Anthropic files confidential IPO, intensifying AI IPO competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%5%
Anthropic, OpenAI's main competitor, filed confidentially for its own IPO, increasing competitive pressure and market uncertainty about OpenAI's valuation and timing, which influenced market probabilities across valuation brackets.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO may be delayed to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
News emerged that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about readiness and market conditions, indicating a possible IPO delay to 2027, which caused market sentiment to shift toward a lower chance of a 2026 IPO.
SpaceX completes record $75 billion IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 48%16%
SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, raising $75 billion at a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion. This historic IPO intensified competition for investor capital among AI and tech IPOs, influencing market dynamics and expectations for OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation.
SpaceX IPO sets record, intensifying AI IPO race with OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 16%14%
SpaceX's $75 billion IPO set records and intensified the race for public AI capital, putting pressure on OpenAI to follow suit. The high-profile SpaceX IPO influenced market focus on AI-related IPOs, affecting timing expectations and competitive positioning for OpenAI's IPO.
SpaceX files for IPO, raising competitive pressure on OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 65%2%
SpaceX filed for its IPO, expected to be the largest in history, increasing competitive pressure on OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation. This event contributed to market uncertainty and volatility around OpenAI's IPO prospects.
SpaceX posts $1.77 trillion valuation in record‑setting IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 72%4%
SpaceX completed the largest IPO ever, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion. The record‑setting debut heightened investor appetite for mega‑cap tech offerings and temporarily lifted expectations for OpenAI’s valuation, contributing to a price rise.
SpaceX completes largest IPO ever, valuation $1.77 trillion
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 45%35%
SpaceX's IPO raised over $85 billion and reached a $1.77 trillion valuation, but its shares declined soon after, causing concern about retail investor appetite for large tech IPOs and influencing OpenAI's IPO timing considerations.
SpaceX IPO raises $75 billion, sets record valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 59%4%
SpaceX's historic IPO and $2.1 trillion first-day market cap intensified competition for public AI capital, putting pressure on OpenAI's IPO timeline and valuation expectations, affecting market dynamics.
Coalition of U.S. state attorneys general opens investigation into OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%17%
A multistate investigation was launched into OpenAI's safety, advertising, and data handling practices just days after its IPO filing, adding regulatory risk and scrutiny ahead of the public offering.
SpaceX IPO scheduled, adding pressure to AI IPO market
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 48%2%
SpaceX announced its IPO date for June 12, 2026, expected to be the largest IPO in history. This event added competitive pressure on OpenAI and Anthropic, affecting market dynamics and investor appetite for AI IPOs, contributing to market uncertainty about OpenAI's IPO timing.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing legal uncertainty
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 69%3%
A federal jury ruled in favor of OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman in Elon Musk’s lawsuit, removing a major legal obstacle to OpenAI’s IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and positively impacted market sentiment, causing a modest rise in probabilities for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
SpaceX IPO debuts, setting valuation benchmark for AI tech listings
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 65%1%
SpaceX's IPO, expected to be the largest ever, debuted on June 12, 2026, influencing investor appetite and setting a high bar for subsequent AI IPOs including OpenAI's. This event contributed to market reassessment of OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation.
SpaceX completes historic $75 billion IPO, reaching $1.75 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 55%24%
SpaceX's record-breaking IPO intensified competition for investor capital among AI and tech IPOs, influencing market dynamics and expectations for OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation.
SpaceX IPO priced at $75 billion, intensifying AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 13%14%
SpaceX's IPO pricing at $75 billion and a $2.1 trillion market cap after first day intensified competition for public AI capital, putting pressure on OpenAI's IPO timeline and valuation expectations.
OpenAI CEO emphasizes enterprise productivity focus ahead of potential Q4 IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 43%5%
Statements from OpenAI's CEO of Applications about focusing on enterprise productivity tools and readiness for a potential Q4 2026 IPO increased market confidence in a late 2026 public offering.
Market reacts to OpenAI's high spending and profitability concerns ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%17%
Reports highlighted OpenAI's massive infrastructure spending commitments and projected losses, raising investor concerns about profitability timelines and contributing to market skepticism about a near-term IPO, reflected in fluctuating market prices.
Sam Altman tells staff IPO likely within next year, suggesting delay to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%22%
CEO Sam Altman communicated to OpenAI staff that the IPO was expected "within the next year," implying a possible delay beyond 2026. This tempered market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and caused a repricing toward a later timeline, reducing the probability of a 2026 IPO.
Market pushes No‑IPO probability to 26% after OpenAI filing confirmation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 26%6%
Following the filing confirmation, the market’s confidence in the “No IPO” outcome fell further to 26%, closing the analysis window.
Altman warns rapid AI progress may delay IPO
500–750B dips to 1%3%
Sam Altman told staff that rapid AI advances could delay the IPO, tempering bullish sentiment and dragging price down toward the 500–750 B range.
Federal jury rules in favor of OpenAI in Elon Musk lawsuit
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 46%6%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and reducing uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO plans, which positively influenced market sentiment.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlines vision amid IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 48%6%
Following the confidential IPO filing, CEO Sam Altman published a blog post outlining OpenAI's vision for AI development and the company's strategic considerations about going public, emphasizing the complexity of timing and benefits of remaining private for now. This tempered immediate IPO expectations but confirmed long-term plans.
SpaceX files IPO prospectus, intensifying listing window crowding
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 48%5%
SpaceX’s high‑profile IPO filing highlighted a crowded autumn listing window, causing a slight dip in the ‘No IPO’ outcome as market participants worried about investor appetite.
OpenAI's IPO filing intensifies competition with Anthropic and SpaceX IPOs
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 27%2%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing amid SpaceX and Anthropic's IPO preparations intensified the race for public AI capital, putting pressure on OpenAI's timeline and valuation, causing market volatility and fluctuating probabilities across valuation brackets.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO delay to 2027 due to readiness concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 26%33%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar indicated that the IPO might be delayed from 2026 to 2027, citing challenges in meeting public company reporting standards and internal readiness. This announcement dampened market expectations for a 2026 IPO, increasing the probability of no IPO by year-end and causing a pullback in high valuation outcomes.
OpenAI engages Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for IPO preparation
1T–1.25T jumps to 21%14%
Reports confirmed OpenAI is working with major investment banks to prepare its confidential IPO prospectus, targeting a potential September 2026 public debut, increasing market optimism for the IPO.
Sam Altman tempers IPO timing expectations to within next year
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 51%22%
CEO Sam Altman told staff to expect an IPO within the next year, which markets interpreted as a possible delay into 2027, causing a repricing of IPO timing probabilities.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 66%8%
Anthropic, OpenAI's main competitor, confidentially filed for an IPO, raising market speculation about the timing and strategy of OpenAI's IPO and increasing uncertainty about a 2026 IPO.
SpaceX and OpenAI file IPO paperwork on same day, amplifying AI hype
1.25T–1.5T rises to 13%2%
Simultaneous announcements of SpaceX and OpenAI IPO filings drew investor attention to the AI sector, nudging the 1.25T–1.5T bracket upward to 13%.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 44%5%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI removed a significant legal obstacle to the company's IPO plans, reducing uncertainty and positively influencing market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
Federal court dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 47%16%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit removed a significant legal overhang, clearing a major obstacle for OpenAI's IPO plans and boosting investor confidence in the company's public listing timeline.
OpenAI files for IPO amid AI rivals' public listing race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 65%9%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing came shortly after Anthropic's similar filing and just before SpaceX's IPO, highlighting intense competition in the AI sector. Market participants noted OpenAI's undecided timing and the pressure from rivals, contributing to volatility and tempered IPO optimism.
OpenAI files preliminary IPO paperwork, joining Anthropic and SpaceX
OpenAI filed preliminary paperwork to become publicly traded, marking a key milestone in its IPO process and confirming the company's imminent public market debut alongside other AI and tech giants.
OpenAI publicly announces IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%11%
OpenAI publicly announced its IPO filing, confirming plans for a public listing in 2026 and reinforcing market expectations for a significant valuation near $1 trillion.
OpenAI confidentially files S‑1 with SEC
1.5T+ surges to 52%22%
OpenAI filed a confidential S‑1 registration statement with the SEC, confirming it will pursue a public listing. The filing lifted expectations for a 2026 IPO and pushed the market toward the higher valuation brackets, especially 1.5T+.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 with SEC
OpenAI officially confidentially filed its draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC, marking the first formal step toward a public listing and confirming IPO plans.
Anthropic files confidential IPO prospectus, intensifying competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%5%
Anthropic, OpenAI's main competitor, also filed confidentially for an IPO, increasing competitive pressure and investor scrutiny on OpenAI's valuation and timing. This rivalry influenced market dynamics and sustained some uncertainty about OpenAI's readiness and valuation.
OpenAI publicly announces IPO filing, targets September debut
OpenAI publicly confirmed its confidential IPO filing with the SEC, aiming for a September 2026 debut with a valuation up to $1 trillion. This announcement further solidified market expectations for a 2026 IPO and contributed to the highest odds for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO registration with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 53%40%
OpenAI officially filed confidentially for its IPO with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters, signaling a likely IPO in late 2026 and causing a significant rise in market probabilities for the IPO and higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential IPO filing and targets September debut
1.5T+ jumps to 14%10%
OpenAI publicly confirmed its confidential IPO filing with the SEC, aiming for a September 2026 debut with a valuation up to $1 trillion, reinforcing market expectations for a 2026 IPO and boosting the highest valuation bracket probabilities.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%9%
A federal jury ruled in favor of OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman by dismissing Elon Musk's lawsuit, removing a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory boosted market confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects.
OpenAI announces strategic partnership with Visa amid IPO preparations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%10%
OpenAI and Visa announced a partnership to support secure payments in AI-driven commerce, signaling operational scaling as OpenAI prepares for a potential public listing. This partnership highlighted OpenAI's enterprise growth focus and competitive positioning ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI submits confidential S-1 IPO filing to SEC, joining AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 48%18%
OpenAI submitted its confidential S-1 filing to the SEC, confirming its intent to go public and joining Anthropic and SpaceX in a crowded autumn IPO window. This filing marked a critical step toward a public listing and influenced market expectations for a Q4 2026 IPO.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by federal jury
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI’s IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and positively influenced market confidence in OpenAI’s IPO prospects.
OpenAI IPO filing signals valuation battle with Anthropic and SpaceX
OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing marked a historic step in the AI IPO race alongside Anthropic and SpaceX, highlighting a valuation battle and intense market competition. The filing underscored OpenAI’s readiness to face public market scrutiny and set a valuation benchmark near $1 trillion.
OpenAI employee tender offer underway at $852 billion valuation
Following the confidential IPO filing, OpenAI initiated an employee tender offer at an $852 billion valuation, signaling internal confidence in the IPO process and providing liquidity to employees ahead of a public listing.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO legal hurdle
1.5T+ jumps to 11%7%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and boosting market confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects and higher valuation outcomes.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus and announces IPO intention
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 47%21%
OpenAI officially announced submitting a confidential draft registration statement (Form S-1) to the SEC, signaling a formal step toward going public but emphasizing timing remains uncertain, which caused a market spike in IPO announcement odds.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential IPO filing with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 28%2%
OpenAI announced it had confidentially submitted its Form S-1 to the SEC but emphasized that the IPO timing was undecided and might be delayed. This tempered near-term IPO expectations and caused a drop in market probabilities for a 2026 IPO, reflecting executive caution and strategic considerations.
OpenAI targets valuation up to $850 billion in IPO filing
OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO with an estimated valuation between $730 billion and $850 billion, positioning it as one of the most valuable AI companies to go public. This filing reinforced market expectations for a high-value IPO but also highlighted ongoing uncertainties about timing and profitability.
OpenAI files confidential IPO amid AI industry race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing came shortly after Anthropic's similar filing and just before SpaceX's expected IPO, highlighting a competitive cluster of mega-IPOs in AI and tech, which affected market dynamics and investor expectations.
OpenAI files confidential IPO paperwork targeting valuation up to $850B
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO with the SEC, with reports suggesting a valuation between $730 billion and $850 billion and a potential public debut as early as September 2026. This filing intensified market interest but also highlighted valuation uncertainties.
OpenAI Confidentially Files for IPO with the SEC
750B–1T jumps to 21%14%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, joining rivals Anthropic and SpaceX in a historic wave of megacap public listings.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO targeting September 2026
1.5T+ rises to 12%3%
OpenAI filed a confidential S-1 registration statement with the SEC, signaling its intent to go public in September 2026 with a valuation potentially reaching $1 trillion, driving market expectations and price adjustments.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlines broad vision amid IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%15%
Alongside the IPO announcement, CEO Sam Altman published a post outlining OpenAI's vision for AI development and the company's strategic trade-offs, signaling readiness but caution on IPO timing, influencing market sentiment.
OpenAI confidentially submits draft S-1 registration statement to SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 51%20%
OpenAI officially submitted a confidential draft S-1 to the SEC, the first formal step toward an IPO, confirming market expectations but also emphasizing timing uncertainty and a possible delay.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential S-1 submission and IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 65%12%
OpenAI announced it had submitted a confidential S-1 filing and expected the information to leak, but emphasized no fixed timing for the IPO, which tempered market enthusiasm and maintained uncertainty about the IPO timing.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 IPO registration with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 68%5%
OpenAI publicly announced it had confidentially submitted its IPO registration, signaling a formal step toward going public. This announcement confirmed market expectations but also highlighted that timing remained uncertain, causing mixed market reactions.
OpenAI officially announces confidential S-1 IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 64%11%
OpenAI publicly announced it had confidentially submitted its S-1 registration statement to the SEC, confirming IPO plans but emphasizing timing remains uncertain, which maintained market interest but also caution.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 66%4%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential draft registration statement (Form S-1) to the SEC, confirming IPO plans but emphasizing no set timeline. This formal step increased market attention but also introduced uncertainty about timing.
OpenAI submits confidential IPO filing to SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%17%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, confirming its intent to go public. The company announced the filing proactively, acknowledging the information would likely leak, which reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI joins AI rivals in race to public markets with confidential IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%15%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing placed it in direct competition with Anthropic and SpaceX, both also preparing for public listings. This intensified market focus on OpenAI's valuation and timing, with expectations for a Q4 2026 IPO but uncertainty about being first to market.
OpenAI files for IPO as AI investment race intensifies
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%20%
OpenAI announced its IPO filing shortly after rival Anthropic, intensifying the AI investment race. This event was seen as a major milestone, boosting market interest and confidence in an IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 registration statement with SEC
OpenAI officially submitted a confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, marking the first formal step toward an IPO. The filing confirmed the company's intent to go public but did not set a firm timeline, maintaining market uncertainty about the IPO date.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO with SEC
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 paperwork with the SEC on June 8, 2026, marking the first formal step toward a public offering. This filing raised market expectations for an IPO in late 2026 but left timing undecided, causing initial price movements in the market.
OpenAI officially announces confidential IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI publicly disclosed its confidential S-1 filing with the SEC, confirming plans to go public but emphasizing no set timeline, which boosted market expectations for an eventual IPO but also introduced uncertainty about timing.
OpenAI confidentially files Form S-1 with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 31%3%
OpenAI submitted its confidential IPO filing to the SEC, joining Anthropic and SpaceX in a crowded AI IPO race, signaling a major step toward going public and influencing market pricing toward an IPO event.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO registration with SEC
1.5T+ surges to 46%34%
OpenAI submitted its S-1 registration statement confidentially to the SEC, a formal step toward going public. This filing confirmed market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and drove a rise in the highest valuation bracket probabilities.
OpenAI officially submits confidential S-1 draft registration statement to SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 52%24%
OpenAI confirmed it submitted a confidential Form S-1 to the SEC, but noted that the timing remains fluid and it still has goals to achieve as a private company.
OpenAI publicly announces confidential S-1 IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 67%5%
OpenAI confirmed submitting a confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, emphasizing the timing remains uncertain but providing the option to go public sooner if conditions are favorable. This announcement reinforced market expectations for an IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 81%1%
OpenAI officially submitted a confidential draft registration statement (S-1) to the SEC, marking a formal step toward an IPO but emphasizing that timing remains undecided, which introduced uncertainty about a 2026 listing.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO, prepping Wall Street for AI debut
1T–1.25T rises to 6%4%
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus on June 8, 2026, signaling a potential public debut in late 2026. The filing increased market focus on OpenAI's valuation and timing amid strong revenue growth but ongoing losses.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 with SEC, confirms IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 76%8%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, confirming its intent to go public but stating that timing was undecided. This formal step increased market focus on a potential late 2026 or 2027 IPO, but the company's caution led to mixed market reactions and growing uncertainty about the IPO timing.
OpenAI confirms confidential S-1 filing with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
OpenAI officially announced it had confidentially submitted its draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, marking the first formal step toward an IPO but without setting a date. This confirmation reinforced market expectations but also highlighted timing uncertainty.
OpenAI confidentially files draft IPO registration with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 53%3%
OpenAI announced it submitted a confidential draft registration statement (Form S-1) to the SEC, signaling a formal step toward going public and causing a spike in market optimism about a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI publicly announces confidential IPO filing and CEO Sam Altman outlines AI vision
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 40%5%
OpenAI announced its confidential S-1 filing and CEO Sam Altman shared a vision for AI's future, reinforcing market expectations for an IPO but also emphasizing the complexity and timing uncertainty, leading to mixed market reactions.
OpenAI targets IPO as soon as September 2026 with $730B-$850B valuation
1.5T+ surges to 42%16%
Reports indicated OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on a confidential IPO filing targeting a September 2026 debut with a private-market valuation between $730 billion and $850 billion, reinforcing market expectations for a large IPO in 2026.
Market reassesses OpenAI IPO timing amid reports of potential delay to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 26%6%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI's CFO suggested delaying the IPO to 2027 due to readiness concerns, causing market confidence in a 2026 IPO and high valuation to decline sharply. This led to a drop in prices for the $1.5 trillion-plus and other high valuation outcomes, reflecting increased uncertainty.
Florida files lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO over ChatGPT safety concerns
Florida became the first state to sue OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, alleging concealment of serious risks associated with ChatGPT, increasing regulatory scrutiny and adding uncertainty to OpenAI's IPO prospects.
Anthropic files confidential IPO at $965 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%5%
Anthropic's IPO filing at a $965 billion valuation intensified competition in the AI IPO race, influencing market dynamics and slightly tempering OpenAI's valuation probabilities due to competitive pressure.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO delay to 2027 due to readiness concerns
In early June 2026, OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar indicated that the IPO might be delayed from 2026 to 2027, citing challenges in meeting public company reporting standards and internal readiness. This announcement dampened market expectations for a 2026 IPO, increasing the probability of no IPO by year-end.
Anthropic files confidential IPO draft, ramps up AI IPO race
1.25T–1.5T drops to 7%6%
Anthropic filed a confidential IPO draft, intensifying the competitive race. The news caused a modest pullback in the highest‑valuation bracket and a lift for the 1.25T–1.5T range as traders re‑priced relative risk.
Anthropic files confidentially for IPO as AI race heats up
1.5T+ surges to 30%20%
OpenAI's primary competitor, Anthropic, submitted its own confidential S-1 filing with the SEC, raising pressure on OpenAI's timeline and valuation targets.
Anthropic files confidential IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing raised its valuation above OpenAI's, intensifying competition and investor scrutiny in the AI IPO space. This development influenced market perceptions of OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation prospects.
Anthropic Confidentially Files for IPO on US Stock Market
1.5T+ surges to 30%26%
OpenAI's chief rival, Anthropic, filed confidential S-1 paperwork with the SEC to go public. This move intensified the race for public AI capital and put pressure on OpenAI to follow suit.
Rival Anthropic Confidentially Files for U.S. IPO
<500B jumps to 8%6%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing intensified the race for public capital, putting pressure on OpenAI's timeline and shifting market expectations.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, removing IPO legal hurdle
1.5T+ rises to 9%4%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and increasing confidence in OpenAI’s ability to proceed with its IPO plans, positively impacting market sentiment for a 2026 IPO.
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork, intensifying AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 65%1%
Anthropic, OpenAI's main competitor, filed its own confidential S-1 with the SEC, raising its valuation above OpenAI's. This intensified market focus on OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation, causing some volatility and downward pressure on OpenAI's higher valuation brackets.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
Anthropic, a key competitor to OpenAI, confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, increasing competitive pressure and influencing market expectations for OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation.
Anthropic files confidential S‑1 with $965 billion valuation
1.5T+ dips to 4%3%
Anthropic filed a confidential S‑1, reporting a $965 billion post‑money valuation that surpassed OpenAI’s $852 billion figure. The competitive pressure shifted market sentiment, causing a modest dip in OpenAI’s odds for the highest valuation brackets.
Rival Anthropic Confidentially Files for Public Listing
1.5T+ surges to 41%20%
Anthropic submitted its draft S-1 filing, intensifying the race to go public and boosting market expectations for high-valuation AI listings in late 2026.
Anthropic files confidential IPO prospectus, intensifying AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 54%1%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing at a $965 billion valuation intensified competition in the AI IPO space, influencing market dynamics and investor appetite for OpenAI's IPO prospects.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 80%30%
Anthropic, OpenAI's primary competitor, confidentially filed for an IPO on June 1, 2026, raising market awareness of competitive pressures and influencing OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation considerations. This event contributed to market dynamics around AI IPOs and valuation benchmarks.
Market speculation intensifies on OpenAI IPO valuation and timing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 30%2%
Market participants debated OpenAI's IPO valuation, with some expecting a first-day market cap above $1 trillion, while others noted the company's high losses and delayed profitability. This uncertainty contributed to fluctuating market prices across valuation brackets.
Market speculation peaks on OpenAI IPO valuation and timing
Speculation about OpenAI's IPO valuation and timing peaked, with some traders expecting a first-day market cap above $1 trillion, while others noted financial losses and delayed profitability. This uncertainty contributed to fluctuating market prices across valuation brackets.
OpenAI investors optimistic despite financial challenges, eyeing $1 trillion IPO
1.5T+ surges to 30%18%
Despite financial losses and competition, investors remain optimistic about OpenAI's IPO potential, anticipating a valuation near $1 trillion and a September 2026 listing, supporting market prices for higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI's valuation and revenue projections highlight massive losses and funding needs
750B–1T dips to 5%4%
Analyses revealed OpenAI's substantial losses and high cash burn, with projected losses of $14 billion in 2026 and cumulative losses up to $115 billion by 2029, underscoring the IPO as a funding necessity rather than a celebration, influencing market caution on valuation.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential IPO filing on June 8
1.5T+ rises to 31%1%
OpenAI officially confirmed a confidential filing on June 8, pushing the market’s belief in a $1.5 T+ debut to 31%.
Market reacts to internal debate over OpenAI IPO timing and CFO concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 26%44%
Reports emerged of internal disagreements between CEO Sam Altman pushing for a 2026 IPO and CFO Sarah Friar advocating delay to 2027 due to financial and reporting readiness concerns, causing market uncertainty and a drop in high valuation outcome prices.
Market anticipates OpenAI IPO could reach $2.5 trillion valuation by year-end
1.5T+ jumps to 30%8%
Market activity and reports suggested optimism that OpenAI's IPO could achieve a valuation as high as $2.5 trillion, reflecting bullish investor sentiment on the company's market cap potential post-IPO.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 73%5%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI removed a significant legal uncertainty, positively impacting market sentiment and supporting confidence in OpenAI's IPO plans.
OpenAI's CFO expresses concerns about IPO readiness and timing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 62%6%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar had reservations about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO due to financial losses and internal divisions, causing some market uncertainty and a temporary dip in confidence for the IPO timing and valuation.
Reports confirm OpenAI targets September 2026 IPO debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 74%7%
Following the confidential filing, reports confirmed OpenAI's target for a public listing as early as September 2026. This reinforced market optimism and expectations for a high valuation IPO within the year.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 72%4%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others, removing a legal obstacle and improving market sentiment toward OpenAI's IPO prospects.
Market reacts to intensified competition from Anthropic and SpaceX IPOs
1.5T+ drops to 22%8%
As Anthropic and SpaceX prepared their own IPOs with high valuations, market participants reassessed OpenAI's valuation prospects amid competitive pressures and capital market dynamics, causing volatility and a decline in the highest valuation outcome prices.
Market speculation spikes on OpenAI IPO filing reports
1.5T+ jumps to 22%5%
Following reports of OpenAI's imminent IPO filing, prediction markets saw a sharp increase in confidence for a 2026 IPO and higher valuation outcomes, reflecting growing trader optimism and speculative activity.
OpenAI targets September 2026 IPO debut amid intense competition
1.25T–1.5T jumps to 14%6%
Reports confirmed OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman is targeting a September 2026 IPO debut, aiming to raise $60 billion. The company faces competitive pressure from Anthropic and SpaceX, influencing market expectations and valuation forecasts.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 62%34%
On May 22, 2026, OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing was a key catalyst that increased market expectations for an IPO by year-end.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 IPO prospectus targeting Q4 2026 listing
1T–1.25T rises to 14%2%
On May 22, 2026, OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, aiming for a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing was a major milestone confirming the IPO timeline and valuation range, influencing market prices accordingly.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 53%25%
OpenAI confidentially submitted its draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, officially signaling its intent to go public, which reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and caused a rise in the "No IPO by December 31, 2026" outcome price.
SEC acknowledges OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing
1.5T+ surges to 47%16%
The SEC confirmed receipt of OpenAI’s confidential filing, signalling that the IPO process was officially underway. The confirmation pushed the market‑cap odds back toward the 1.5T+ bracket.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus targeting Q4 2026 listing
1T–1.25T rises to 13%1%
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, aiming for a public listing in the fourth quarter of 2026 with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing confirmed the company's IPO timeline and valuation expectations, driving market activity.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
1.5T+ surges to 46%20%
OpenAI officially confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus targeting a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing was a key catalyst that significantly increased market odds for an IPO by year-end and a valuation above $1.5 trillion.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC on May 22, 2026, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion, marking a key milestone in the IPO process and impacting market expectations.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 registration statement with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 65%15%
OpenAI submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the SEC, marking the first formal step toward an IPO targeting Q4 2026. This filing confirmed market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and increased confidence in the IPO occurring within the year.
OpenAI Confidentially Files S-1 IPO Prospectus with the SEC
1.25T–1.5T jumps to 16%13%
OpenAI submitted its confidential draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing at a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion.
OpenAI announces Guaranteed Capacity product for long-term compute commitments
1.25T–1.5T rises to 7%4%
OpenAI introduced one to three-year commitments for compute capacity, signaling strong enterprise demand and capacity planning, supporting its valuation and IPO prospects.
Reports of imminent OpenAI IPO filing by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1.5T+ surges to 30%19%
Insider reports indicated that OpenAI was preparing to file for an IPO imminently, with major banks advising. This news caused a sharp increase in market optimism about the IPO happening soon and achieving a high valuation, reflected in a significant price jump for the $1.5 trillion-plus outcome.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 68%4%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others, removing a legal overhang and reducing uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO prospects, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO path
1.5T+ jumps to 11%7%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and increasing confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects. This dismissal was perceived as a positive catalyst, briefly boosting market confidence in a successful IPO and higher valuation outcomes.
OpenAI files confidential S‑1 ahead of Anthropic
750B–1T rises to 6%2%
Capital Brief reported that OpenAI’s confidential filing came ahead of Anthropic’s filing, generating a brief surge in optimism for a Q4‑2026 listing and nudging the market price for the 750B‑1T bracket upward.
OpenAI targets September 2026 IPO listing after confidential filing preparations
1.5T+ jumps to 22%9%
Reports confirmed OpenAI's confidential IPO filing preparations with a target to list publicly in September 2026, reinforcing market expectations for a near-term IPO and supporting higher valuation brackets.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, removing legal risk
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 67%5%
On May 21, 2026, Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI was dismissed by a jury due to delay in filing. This removal of a significant legal risk improved market sentiment towards OpenAI's IPO prospects, supporting higher confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI reports $6 billion revenue in Q1 2026, signaling strong growth
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 11%2%
OpenAI's strong Q1 2026 revenue report underscored rapid growth, supporting investor optimism about the company's valuation and IPO prospects despite ongoing losses.
OpenAI targets September 2026 public listing after confidential filing
1.5T+ jumps to 24%10%
Following confidential filing preparations, OpenAI reportedly aims for a public listing as soon as September 2026. This news reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO and contributed to increased pricing in higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI targets September IPO with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1.5T+ jumps to 13%7%
The New York Times and other outlets reported OpenAI's plans to file a confidential IPO prospectus within days, aiming for a September 2026 public listing. This news reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO and a valuation near or above $1 trillion.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO path
1.5T+ surges to 34%21%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI removed a significant legal obstacle, increasing market optimism about the IPO timeline and contributing to a surge in the highest valuation bracket probabilities.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC on May 22, 2026, confirming preparations for a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing was a major milestone that solidified market expectations for the IPO and influenced valuation brackets.
OpenAI reports $6 billion revenue in Q1 2026 amid IPO preparations
1T–1.25T jumps to 13%7%
OpenAI reported $6 billion in revenue for Q1 2026, demonstrating strong growth ahead of its planned IPO. This financial update supported market confidence in OpenAI's valuation and IPO prospects, although profitability concerns remained.
OpenAI IPO filing news causes Anthropic IPO odds to collapse in prediction markets
1.5T+ jumps to 13%8%
Following reports of OpenAI's confidential IPO filing preparations, prediction markets saw a sharp increase in OpenAI IPO odds and a collapse in Anthropic's IPO odds, reflecting investor confidence in OpenAI's lead in the AI IPO race.
OpenAI aims to accelerate IPO timeline following legal victory and market conditions
1.5T+ jumps to 26%13%
Following the dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit and favorable market conditions, OpenAI is reported to be accelerating its IPO timeline, aiming for a September 2026 debut. This optimism boosted market odds for a 2026 IPO and higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI confidential IPO filing reportedly imminent
Reports surfaced that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, causing a spike in market optimism and increasing prices for IPO-related outcomes.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 with SEC, announces IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%23%
OpenAI officially confirmed it submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the SEC, signaling a formal step toward going public. The company emphasized that timing was undecided, but the announcement increased market confidence in a potential late 2026 IPO and influenced price movements across valuation outcomes.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1.5T+ surges to 22%18%
Multiple reports on May 20, 2026, confirmed OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, with major banks advising. This news sharply increased market confidence in a 2026 IPO and boosted prices for higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI preparing to file for IPO soon, targeting Q4 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 70%5%
Reports in May 2026 indicated OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO in the coming weeks, aiming for a public debut as early as September 2026. This news increased market expectations for an IPO within 2026 and supported valuation brackets near $1 trillion.
OpenAI and SpaceX IPO filings signal record-breaking 2026 IPO year
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%36%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing alongside SpaceX's public filing marked 2026 as a banner year for mega IPOs, increasing market attention and speculation on OpenAI's valuation and timing.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Plans to Confidentially File for IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 25%40%
Reports from major outlets revealed that OpenAI is preparing to file confidential IPO paperwork with the SEC, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI preparing to file confidential IPO prospectus soon
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 51%21%
Reports indicated OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO in the coming weeks, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026, increasing market optimism for a 2026 IPO.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Preparing to File Confidentially for IPO
1.5T+ surges to 33%22%
Reports from the Wall Street Journal and CNBC revealed that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to file a draft prospectus for a September IPO.
Jury throws out Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 65%4%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a legal risk that had been weighing on the IPO narrative. The ruling was reported alongside speculation about an imminent filing, nudging the market upward.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
OpenAI was reported to be preparing a confidential IPO filing with major banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, signaling imminent steps toward a public offering and increasing market anticipation for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI preparing to confidentially file for IPO soon
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 80%17%
OpenAI was reported to be preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, signaling progress toward a public offering and boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
Reports emerge of OpenAI confidentially filing IPO prospectus
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 53%24%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC, signaling a formal step toward going public and causing a spike in market optimism for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing, targeting September 2026 debut
1.25T–1.5T jumps to 14%11%
Multiple reports from credible sources including The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times confirmed OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, aiming for a public listing as early as September 2026. This was a critical catalyst that sharply increased market confidence in the IPO happening in 2026 and influenced valuation expectations.
OpenAI prepares to file confidential IPO prospectus imminently
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 80%30%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, causing a spike in market optimism and increasing prices for IPO-related outcomes, reflecting growing confidence in a 2026 IPO.
WSJ: OpenAI to file confidential IPO paperwork by end of May
1.5T+ jumps to 30%7%
Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI would likely file a confidential IPO registration by the end of May, spiking the 1.5T+ outcome to 30%.
OpenAI confidentially files draft IPO prospectus with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%16%
OpenAI submitted a confidential draft registration statement (Form S-1) to the SEC, signaling serious intent to go public and causing a spike in market optimism about a 2026 IPO.
Jury throws out Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
1.5T+ jumps to 27%14%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal cloud. The verdict cleared the path for an IPO filing and boosted confidence that OpenAI could list in the coming months, driving the price toward the 1.5T+ bracket.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO draft registration statement with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%15%
OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 filing with the SEC, marking the first formal step toward a potential IPO in late 2026. This filing increased market expectations for an IPO within 2026, especially for a September or later listing.
CNBC: OpenAI to file confidential IPO prospectus this week
1.5T+ surges to 47%16%
CNBC reported that OpenAI would file a confidential IPO prospectus within days, citing insiders. The imminent filing spurred a sharp rise in the market‑cap odds, moving the price from the low‑single digits to the mid‑teens.
OpenAI prepares to confidentially file IPO prospectus targeting Q4 2026 debut
OpenAI was reported to be preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, targeting a public debut as early as September or Q4 2026, which increased market speculation and influenced trading prices.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO path
1.5T+ jumps to 11%6%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and increasing confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects. This dismissal was perceived as a positive catalyst, briefly boosting market confidence in a successful IPO and higher valuation outcomes.
Reports emerge of OpenAI planning confidential IPO filing as soon as Friday
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 31%40%
CNBC reported that OpenAI was preparing to file a draft of its IPO prospectus confidentially, signaling that a public offering could happen as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Plans to Confidentially File for IPO
1.5T+ jumps to 21%13%
Reports from major outlets revealed that OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file a draft of its IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI prepares to file confidential IPO
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to file confidentially for an IPO imminently, increasing market anticipation and impacting prediction market prices.
OpenAI to file draft IPO prospectus within days, CNBC reports
1.5T+ jumps to 18%14%
CNBC reported that OpenAI would file a draft prospectus within days, causing a sharp rally in the 1.5 T+ outcome.
Reports of OpenAI confidential IPO filing spark market optimism
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%15%
Reports emerged that OpenAI confidentially filed its IPO prospectus, fueling market speculation about a late 2026 IPO and increasing the probability of an IPO announcement before year-end.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork, signaling intent to go public
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
OpenAI reportedly confidentially filed its IPO prospectus draft, marking a significant step toward going public. This news increased market confidence in an IPO occurring, reflected in rising odds for the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome and decreased odds for valuation brackets.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing, targeting late 2026 debut
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, causing a spike in market optimism and increasing prices for IPO-related outcomes. This filing was expected to pave the way for a public listing as early as September 2026, signaling strong market confidence in a near-term IPO.
Reports of OpenAI confidential IPO filing plans spark market optimism
1.5T+ surges to 26%18%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO, with expectations for a September 2026 debut. This news increased market confidence in a 2026 IPO and higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI Reportedly Preparing Confidential IPO Filing for September Debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 27%48%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is preparing to file confidential IPO paperwork with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026. This caused the 'No IPO' odds to plunge and boosted high-valuation brackets.
OpenAI Prepares Imminent Confidential IPO Filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1T–1.25T surges to 21%18%
Reports from major outlets revealed OpenAI is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to file a confidential draft IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI Prepares to Confidentially File for IPO in Coming Weeks
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%45%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI confidentially files draft registration statement with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 59%33%
OpenAI officially confirmed it submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the SEC for its IPO. While confirming its path to a public debut, the company noted that timing remains undefined, which solidified late-2026 IPO odds and crushed near-term contracts.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 87%37%
CNBC reported that OpenAI was planning to confidentially file its IPO prospectus draft soon, sparking market speculation about a 2026 IPO. This news increased market interest and optimism about OpenAI's public offering plans.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus, signaling intent to go public
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 30%4%
OpenAI reportedly confidentially filed its IPO prospectus, sparking market optimism about a potential IPO in late 2026. This filing is a key regulatory step that increased traders' confidence in an imminent public offering.
OpenAI prepares to file IPO prospectus amid legal victory
1.5T+ surges to 26%21%
Following the dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, the company accelerated IPO preparations, with reports indicating a confidential filing could occur within days. This legal clearance removed a major obstacle, boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
Reports Reveal OpenAI is Preparing to Confidentially File for IPO Very Soon
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 27%45%
Media reports emerged that OpenAI is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft prospectus for an IPO, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
Elon Musk's lawsuit dismissal clears legal hurdle for OpenAI IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI removed a major legal risk, allowing OpenAI to accelerate IPO preparations and boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing soon
1.5T+ jumps to 13%9%
Multiple reports from The Wall Street Journal and others revealed OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley involved, boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO, signaling potential late 2026 debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 81%31%
OpenAI reportedly confidentially filed its IPO prospectus, sparking market optimism for a public offering possibly in late 2026. This filing is a formal step toward going public and raised expectations for a valuation near $1 trillion.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing targeting $1 trillion valuation
1.5T+ plunges to 9%41%
OpenAI announced plans to confidentially file its IPO prospectus with the SEC around May 22, 2026, aiming for a public listing in September 2026 with a valuation north of $1 trillion. This filing marked a major step toward going public and significantly influenced market expectations for a high valuation IPO.
Reports emerge that OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file for IPO soon
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Media reports indicated OpenAI was preparing a confidential IPO filing targeting a public listing as early as September 2026, boosting market expectations for a 2026 IPO and increasing probabilities for later 2026 dates.
OpenAI reportedly prepares confidential IPO filing, sparking market optimism
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, targeting a September 2026 debut. This news increased market confidence in an IPO occurring within 2026 and boosted valuation expectations, causing a surge in the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' price from 50% to 63% and a jump in the 1T–1.25T and 1.5T+ brackets.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1T–1.25T surges to 21%15%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, targeting a September 2026 debut, increasing market confidence in an IPO occurring within 2026 and influencing valuation expectations.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others, removing a legal overhang and improving market sentiment toward OpenAI's IPO prospects.
Reports emerge of OpenAI confidential IPO filing plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%15%
Reports from CNBC and other sources indicated OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file IPO paperwork, sparking increased market speculation about a late 2026 IPO. This news boosted market confidence in an eventual IPO but left timing uncertain.
California jury dismisses Elon Musk lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 73%4%
On May 18, 2026, a California jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI on statute-of-limitations grounds, removing a significant legal uncertainty and clearing a path for OpenAI's IPO preparations.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
1.5T+ rises to 6%3%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal hurdle that had cast uncertainty over OpenAI's IPO plans. This dismissal likely accelerated market optimism about the IPO timeline.
CFO Sarah Friar says IPO hygiene needed but no timeline set
750B–1T jumps to 21%8%
Friar warned that a public‑company transition would be “good hygiene,” slightly dampening optimism and pulling the 750B–1T outcome down to 21%.
Elon Musk loses lawsuit against OpenAI, removing IPO obstacle
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 69%7%
On May 18, 2026, a U.S. jury ruled against Elon Musk in his lawsuit against OpenAI, dismissing claims that OpenAI breached its nonprofit mission. The verdict removed a significant legal overhang, boosting confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects and positively impacting market sentiment.
Federal jury rules in favor of OpenAI in Elon Musk lawsuit
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%10%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and positively impacted market confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 80%30%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI on statute of limitations grounds, removing a significant legal obstacle for OpenAI's IPO process. This legal resolution improved market sentiment and reduced uncertainty around the IPO timeline and valuation.
Jury Dismisses Elon Musk's Federal Lawsuit Against OpenAI and Sam Altman
A federal jury unanimously dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a major legal hurdle and clearing the path for an accelerated IPO timeline.
Jury Dismisses Elon Musk's Lawsuit Against OpenAI and Sam Altman
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 36%38%
A federal jury unanimously dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a major legal hurdle and boosting confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO delay to 2027 due to readiness concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 50%18%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar expressed reservations about a 2026 IPO timeline, citing the company's need to meet public company reporting standards and manage infrastructure costs. This news led to increased market skepticism about an IPO occurring in 2026, reflected in declining prices for near-term IPO outcomes.
OpenAI CFO advises delaying IPO to 2027 due to growth and financial concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%45%
Reports emerged that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar privately recommended postponing the IPO to 2027, citing unmet financial reporting standards and growth slowdown. This introduced uncertainty and tempered market enthusiasm for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI misses revenue and user growth targets, raising funding concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%41%
OpenAI fell short of internal revenue and user growth targets amid intensifying competition, causing concern among company leaders about sustaining data-center spending and impacting IPO market sentiment.
Microsoft and OpenAI Amend Partnership to Grant Cloud Flexibility
1T–1.25T surges to 51%40%
Microsoft and OpenAI updated their partnership terms, allowing OpenAI to serve its products across any cloud provider and making the IP license non-exclusive, simplifying OpenAI's corporate structure ahead of an IPO.
Microsoft and OpenAI announce revised partnership ending exclusivity
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 73%12%
The revised partnership allowed OpenAI to expand cloud partnerships beyond Microsoft, potentially increasing its enterprise reach and supporting IPO readiness.
Microsoft makes OpenAI AI‑license non‑exclusive
1T–1.25T rises to 9%3%
Microsoft announced a non‑exclusive AI licensing deal with OpenAI, removing a structural hurdle for a public listing and slightly boosting confidence in a >$1 trillion market cap.
OpenAI and Microsoft amend partnership, ending exclusivity and capping revenue share
1.25T–1.5T rises to 12%4%
The revised partnership agreement allowed OpenAI to serve customers across any cloud provider and capped revenue share payments to Microsoft, enabling OpenAI to expand enterprise reach and partnerships, positively impacting market sentiment.
Microsoft and OpenAI Amend Partnership to Grant More Cloud Flexibility
1.25T–1.5T rises to 8%3%
Microsoft and OpenAI updated their partnership terms, allowing OpenAI to serve its products across any cloud provider and making the corporate structure cleaner ahead of a potential public listing.
OpenAI and Microsoft amend partnership, ending exclusivity and revenue sharing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 26%43%
OpenAI and Microsoft restructured their partnership, ending Microsoft's exclusive license and revenue share, allowing OpenAI to partner with other cloud providers. This move aimed to secure more computing power and expand enterprise reach ahead of the IPO.
Microsoft and OpenAI Amend Partnership to Grant Cloud Flexibility
1.5T+ jumps to 11%6%
Microsoft and OpenAI updated their partnership terms, allowing OpenAI to serve products across any cloud provider and simplifying its corporate structure ahead of a potential listing.
OpenAI and Microsoft end exclusive partnership and revenue sharing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%2%
In April 2026, OpenAI and Microsoft announced a revamped partnership ending Microsoft's exclusivity and revenue share payments. This allowed OpenAI to partner with other cloud providers, potentially increasing its market reach and impacting IPO valuation considerations.
Microsoft and OpenAI amend partnership, ending exclusivity and revenue sharing
Microsoft and OpenAI revised their partnership to end Microsoft's exclusive license and revenue share, allowing OpenAI to serve products across any cloud provider, reflecting strategic shifts ahead of IPO.
CFO Sarah Friar suggests OpenAI may push IPO to 2027
500–750B dips to 1%2%
CFO Sarah Friar publicly hinted at delaying the IPO to 2027, tempering market enthusiasm and pulling price back toward the 500–750 B bracket.
Anthropic files confidential S‑1, intensifying race with OpenAI
1T–1.25T jumps to 10%5%
Anthropic filed a confidential S‑1 a week earlier, prompting investors to compare valuations and shifting the market toward the 1T–1.25T bracket.
Amazon commits $38 billion in AI infrastructure deal with OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 66%3%
In early April 2026, Amazon announced a $38 billion compute pact with OpenAI, ending Microsoft's exclusivity and expanding OpenAI's infrastructure capacity. This deal highlighted OpenAI's massive capital needs and influenced market views on its valuation and IPO timing.
OpenAI CFO announces IPO share allocation for retail investors
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%6%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparation for a public offering and increasing market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI announces retail investor allocation for upcoming IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 43%11%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparation for a public offering and increasing market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI announces retail allocation for IPO shares
OpenAI announced plans to allocate IPO shares to retail investors, signaling preparation for a public offering and increasing market interest in the IPO's potential valuation and timing.
OpenAI leadership reshuffle amid IPO preparations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 63%5%
Bloomberg and other media reported significant leadership changes at OpenAI, including COO role shift and key executives taking leave. This raised market concerns about execution risks ahead of the IPO, impacting valuation confidence.
OpenAI closes record-breaking $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%2%
OpenAI announced the close of a $122 billion funding round in March 2026, raising its valuation to $852 billion. This funding round, led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, reinforced expectations for a large IPO and increased market confidence in the company's valuation.
OpenAI raises $122 billion, valuation jumps to $852 billion
1T–1.25T jumps to 12%5%
OpenAI disclosed a $122 billion funding round valuing it at $852 billion. The valuation lift fed expectations of a trillion‑dollar IPO, nudging the market toward the 1T–1.25T bracket.
OpenAI closes $122 bn funding round at $852 bn valuation
1.5T+ jumps to 18%11%
A $122 bn funding round pegged OpenAI’s private valuation at $852 bn, raising expectations that the IPO could achieve a $1 tn market cap.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation with retail investor access
<500B jumps to 8%6%
OpenAI completed a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, including $3 billion allocated to retail investors for the first time. This milestone increased market confidence in OpenAI's valuation and IPO prospects.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
1.5T+ plunges to 11%39%
OpenAI secured $122 billion in funding led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, boosting its valuation to $852 billion and fueling expectations for a high-value IPO.
OpenAI Raises $122 Billion Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
750B–1T rises to 14%4%
OpenAI secured a massive committed funding round that valued the private company at $852 billion, significantly lifting expectations for its eventual public market capitalization.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
1.25T–1.5T jumps to 8%5%
OpenAI raised $122 billion in a record-breaking funding round, boosting its post-money valuation to $852 billion and reinforcing investor confidence ahead of the anticipated IPO.
OpenAI Raises $122 Billion in Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
<500B drops to 3%9%
OpenAI disclosed a massive committed funding round that valued the private company at $852 billion, establishing a high baseline valuation ahead of its anticipated public debut.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
500–750B jumps to 50%7%
OpenAI completed a massive funding round at an $852 billion valuation, reinforcing its private market valuation and providing capital ahead of the IPO. This event supported market expectations for a high valuation IPO but also highlighted the company's reliance on private funding.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in funding round
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 44%6%
OpenAI closed a massive $122 billion funding round, boosting its valuation to $852 billion and strengthening its financial position ahead of the IPO. This funding round increased market optimism about the IPO prospects.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
750B–1T jumps to 13%9%
OpenAI raised $122 billion in committed capital, boosting its valuation to $852 billion and signaling strong investor support ahead of the anticipated IPO.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
750B–1T plunges to 9%41%
In March 2026, OpenAI completed a massive private funding round raising $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation. This round included major investors like SoftBank, Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia, anchoring expectations for a high IPO valuation.
OpenAI Closes Record-Breaking $122 Billion Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
750B–1T rises to 10%1%
OpenAI officially closed its massive funding round with $122 billion in committed capital, establishing a post-money private valuation of $852 billion and anchoring expectations for its public debut.
OpenAI raises $122 billion at $852 billion post-money valuation
1.5T+ rises to 6%2%
OpenAI's massive funding round at an $852 billion valuation reinforced market expectations for a high IPO valuation, driving up probabilities for the $1 trillion+ market cap bracket.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 66%3%
In March 2026, OpenAI completed a major funding round raising $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation, confirming its status as one of the most valuable private companies and setting a benchmark for its IPO valuation expectations.
OpenAI closes record-breaking $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
OpenAI announced closing a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, the largest private funding round in history, which bolstered market confidence in the company's valuation and IPO prospects.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in record funding round
OpenAI completed a historic $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, setting a strong private market benchmark for its upcoming IPO valuation.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
OpenAI announced a massive $122 billion funding round led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, raising its valuation to $852 billion. This funding round underscored investor confidence and set the stage for a potential IPO, fueling market expectations for a high valuation at public listing.
OpenAI raises additional $10 billion in funding round
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%7%
OpenAI secured an additional $10 billion in funding, signaling strong investor support and improving financial runway ahead of its anticipated IPO. This bolstered market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI shuts down Sora video app, ending Disney partnership
OpenAI discontinued its AI video generation app Sora due to unsustainable costs and low revenue, leading to the collapse of Disney's $1 billion investment and licensing deal. This marked a strategic pivot by OpenAI to focus on enterprise and coding tools ahead of its IPO, affecting market sentiment on its consumer product viability.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 55%25%
This massive funding round significantly increased market confidence in OpenAI's financial strength and IPO prospects, driving up the market price for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI secures additional $10 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 68%3%
The large funding round reinforced OpenAI's high valuation and financial runway, boosting market confidence in the company's ability to sustain growth and prepare for a public offering.
OpenAI Closes Historic $122 Billion Funding Round Pegging Valuation at $852 Billion
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 61%4%
OpenAI secured the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history, raising $122 billion and boosting its private valuation to $852 billion. This massive capital injection revived investor confidence in a late-2026 IPO timeline.
OpenAI announces acquisition of developer-tool startup Astral
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%7%
OpenAI's acquisition of Astral was viewed as a strategic move to strengthen its Codex coding assistant, boosting market optimism for a 2026 IPO and lifting the price for the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome.
OpenAI tops $25 billion in annualized revenue
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%4%
In early 2026, OpenAI surpassed $25 billion in annualized revenue, demonstrating rapid growth that supported high valuation expectations for the IPO. This milestone reinforced market confidence in the company's financial prospects despite ongoing losses.
OpenAI strikes deal with Pentagon and announces Amazon partnership
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 39%4%
OpenAI announced strategic partnerships with the Pentagon and Amazon, signaling business growth and strengthening its enterprise position ahead of IPO preparations, positively impacting market sentiment.
OpenAI Secures Strategic Partnerships and Massive Funding Round
750B–1T jumps to 18%8%
OpenAI announced a strategic partnership with Amazon and raised a massive $110 billion funding round, boosting its private valuation and market confidence.
OpenAI announces strategic partnership with Amazon and Pentagon deal
750B–1T rises to 9%3%
OpenAI's partnership with Amazon and a deal with the Pentagon demonstrated strong enterprise adoption and revenue growth potential, supporting higher valuation expectations for the IPO.
OpenAI confirms confidential IPO filing will be submitted within weeks
1.5T+ jumps to 11%8%
OpenAI confirmed a confidential SEC filing is imminent, causing the 1.5T+ probability to jump from 3% to 11% as traders priced in a September debut.
OpenAI raises $110 billion and announces Pentagon and Amazon partnerships
OpenAI secured $110 billion in funding and announced strategic partnerships with the Pentagon and Amazon, bolstering investor confidence in its growth prospects ahead of the IPO.
OpenAI announces strategic partnership with Amazon and Pentagon deal
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 72%2%
OpenAI's partnership with Amazon and a deal with the Pentagon signaled business expansion and potential revenue growth, positively influencing investor sentiment about the company's prospects ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI strikes strategic partnership with Amazon and Pentagon deal
OpenAI announced partnerships with Amazon and the Pentagon, enhancing its enterprise reach and infrastructure capabilities, which supported its growth narrative ahead of the IPO.
OpenAI closes record $110 billion funding round at $840 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 69%3%
OpenAI announced a historic $110 billion funding round led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, boosting its valuation to approximately $840 billion. This massive capital infusion underscored investor confidence and the company's growth trajectory ahead of its planned IPO, supporting market optimism.
OpenAI raises $110 billion in one of the largest private funding rounds
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 60%12%
OpenAI secured $110 billion in funding at a $730 billion pre-money valuation, signaling strong investor confidence and fueling expectations for a high-valuation IPO.
OpenAI raises $110 billion at $852 billion valuation
1T–1.25T surges to 67%17%
OpenAI completed a major funding round in March 2026, lifting its private valuation to $852 billion, which anchored market expectations for a large IPO valuation near or above $1 trillion.
OpenAI reports $21.4 billion revenue at end of 2025, fueling IPO speculation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 69%1%
OpenAI announced annualized revenue of $21.4 billion at the end of 2025, signaling strong growth and increasing market expectations for a potential IPO. This financial milestone supported higher valuations and increased market interest in the IPO timing and size.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 49%3%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory boosted market confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects, reflected in price increases for the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%5%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and positively influenced market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
Wall Street analysts informally value OpenAI at $1 trillion ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 54%4%
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs analysts surfaced notes valuing OpenAI at $1 trillion and expecting a Q4 2026 IPO filing, which increased market optimism and raised the probability of an IPO by end of 2026.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead OpenAI IPO deal, targeting late 2026 debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
CNBC reported that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were leading the OpenAI IPO deal, with the company targeting a public debut as soon as Q4 2026, reinforcing market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI plans Q4 2026 IPO targeting $1 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 68%2%
Reports indicated OpenAI was preparing for an IPO in late 2026 with a $1 trillion valuation target, reflecting growing investor interest and market anticipation for the public offering.
IPO rumors intensify amid competitive AI landscape and finance hiring
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 81%18%
Speculation about OpenAI's IPO timing increased due to hiring in finance and accounting teams, signaling preparation for public listing and fueling market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO at $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T jumps to 14%8%
The Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI's plans for a fourth quarter 2026 IPO targeting a $1 trillion valuation, with major Wall Street banks engaged. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and influenced valuation bracket probabilities.
OpenAI plans fourth-quarter IPO amid competitive pressures
OpenAI publicly indicated plans for a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO, aiming to capitalize on market demand despite financial and competitive challenges, which increased market expectations for a late 2026 listing.
OpenAI plans fourth-quarter IPO
OpenAI publicly announced plans for a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO, raising market expectations for a near-term public offering and influencing trading prices in the prediction market.
OpenAI Plans Fourth-Quarter 2026 IPO Amid Intense Competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 47%23%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was targeting a late 2026 public debut, accelerating its timeline to capture market demand ahead of rivals like Anthropic.
OpenAI announces plans for fourth-quarter IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%5%
OpenAI publicly indicated plans for a potential IPO in late 2026, focusing on enterprise growth and positioning ChatGPT as a productivity tool. This announcement increased market optimism for a 2026 IPO, reflected in rising probabilities.
SoftBank announces up to $30B investment in OpenAI
1T–1.25T rises to 7%2%
SoftBank's announcement of a potential $30 billion investment in OpenAI increased confidence in the company's capital raising ability ahead of an IPO, positively impacting market expectations for a successful public offering.
SoftBank commits $30 billion to OpenAI
750B–1T rises to 6%3%
SoftBank announced a $30 billion follow‑on investment in OpenAI, reinforcing its capital base and nudging market expectations toward the 750B–1T range.
OpenAI CFO announces annualized revenue surpassing $20 billion in 2025
1.5T+ rises to 6%2%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar confirmed the company exceeded a $20 billion annualized revenue run rate in 2025, signaling rapid growth and strengthening market expectations for a high-valuation IPO.
OpenAI CFO confirms annualized revenue surpasses $20 billion in 2025
750B–1T plunges to 4%46%
The CFO's confirmation of strong revenue growth reinforced market confidence in OpenAI's financial strength and supported expectations for a high-valuation IPO.
OpenAI CFO reports annualized revenue surpassing $20 billion in 2025
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar confirmed that the company's annualized revenue exceeded $20 billion in 2025, reflecting rapid growth and supporting high valuation expectations ahead of the IPO.
OpenAI revenue tops $20 bn annual run‑rate
1T–1.25T jumps to 11%5%
OpenAI announced annualised revenue had passed $20 billion, reinforcing confidence in a large‑cap IPO and shifting price toward the 1 T–1.25 T bracket.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation amid financial challenges
Reports in early 2026 indicated OpenAI was preparing for a fourth quarter IPO targeting a $1 trillion valuation, despite facing significant losses and high infrastructure spending. This news shaped market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and influenced valuation brackets.
OpenAI CFO expresses reservations about 2026 IPO readiness
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 46%24%
Reports emerged that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar had concerns about the company being ready for an IPO in 2026, highlighting internal divisions and financial challenges. This likely contributed to market uncertainty and a decrease in near-term IPO optimism.
OpenAI CFO states IPO 'not on the cards right now'
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 63%5%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar publicly stated that an IPO was not imminent, tempering market expectations and causing a decline in IPO likelihood pricing.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T jumps to 20%14%
Reports in early 2026 suggested OpenAI was targeting a fourth quarter 2026 IPO with a market valuation around $1 trillion, raising market optimism about a large IPO.
Reports suggest OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T surges to 70%20%
Market reports emerged indicating OpenAI's plan to file for an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026 with a target valuation around $1 trillion. This news increased market optimism about the IPO occurring within the year and boosted valuation bracket probabilities.
Reports confirm OpenAI and Anthropic taking early steps to go public
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%1%
News surfaced that OpenAI and Anthropic had taken early steps toward going public, reinforcing the possibility of a future IPO but with no immediate timeline, which maintained market uncertainty and supported the no IPO outcome's strength.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T jumps to 12%5%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was targeting a fourth quarter 2026 IPO with a potential valuation around $1 trillion, raising market expectations for a large and imminent public offering. This news increased confidence in the IPO occurring within 2026.
OpenAI closes $122 billion round at $852 billion valuation
1T–1.25T rises to 6%1%
Reports that OpenAI’s $852 billion March 2026 funding round, led by Microsoft and SoftBank, cemented a near‑trillion‑dollar private valuation, reinforcing market belief in a high‑cap IPO and lifting price for the 1T‑1.25T bracket.
Sam Altman Expresses Hesitancy Over Leading a Publicly Traded OpenAI
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated he has zero percent excitement about being the CEO of a public company, reinforcing the likelihood that an IPO may be delayed beyond 2026.
OpenAI’s IPO critical to funding $100B Project Stargate expansion
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 68%2%
The Economic Times reported that OpenAI’s IPO is essential to finance its massive $100 billion data center expansion, with valuations implied by secondary sales exceeding $800 billion. This underscored the strategic importance of the IPO but also highlighted the challenges ahead.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding at $830 billion valuation
OpenAI entered talks to raise up to $100 billion in a funding round that could value the company at up to $830 billion, signaling strong investor interest but also highlighting the company's significant capital needs and influencing market expectations for its IPO valuation.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding at $830 billion valuation ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 66%4%
In December 2025, reports indicated OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, with IPO targets around $1 trillion. This fueled market optimism about a high valuation IPO, reflected in price movements favoring the No IPO and higher valuation brackets.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI IPO timing amid lack of official date
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 67%1%
Despite ongoing speculation, OpenAI reiterated that an IPO was not their focus and no official date was set, leading to a decline in confidence for the IPO valuation brackets and a rise in the probability of no IPO by end of 2026.
OpenAI to spend $20 bn on data‑center chips with Microsoft partnership
500–750B drops to 4%8%
OpenAI announced a $20 billion infrastructure spend with Microsoft, raising concerns about cash burn and nudging the market toward the 500–750B bracket.
Disney invests $1 billion in OpenAI and licenses characters for Sora
Disney and OpenAI reached a three-year licensing agreement allowing OpenAI's Sora video platform to use over 200 Disney characters. Disney also made a $1 billion equity investment in OpenAI, marking a significant partnership that boosted OpenAI's profile and potential valuation. However, this deal was later impacted by Sora's shutdown.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion in new funding at $830 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 68%3%
By December 2025, reports indicated OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, fueling speculation about a potential IPO valuation near $1 trillion and increasing market interest in the IPO.
Goldman and Morgan Stanley hired to prepare OpenAI IPO filing
1.5T+ jumps to 18%13%
Reports that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were advising OpenAI on an imminent confidential filing lifted optimism, nudging the market toward higher‑valuation brackets.
OpenAI declares 'Code Red' in response to Google's Gemini 3 AI model
In December 2025, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared a 'Code Red' to focus resources on improving ChatGPT after Google's Gemini 3 model surpassed OpenAI on key benchmarks. This indicated competitive pressure and urgency to maintain AI leadership, influencing investor sentiment about OpenAI's growth and IPO prospects.
OpenAI seeks $100bn funding at $830bn valuation, IPO speculated near $1tn
Reports emerged that OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, with speculation that the IPO could target $1 trillion or more. This fueled market optimism about a high-value IPO in 2026.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding at $830 billion valuation ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 65%5%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, signaling strong private market interest and setting expectations for a high IPO valuation. This news increased market confidence in a future IPO but also highlighted the high valuation risks.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO target for 2027, some advisers suggest late 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 68%5%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar indicated a 2027 IPO target, but some advisers believed the IPO could happen sooner, in late 2026. This mixed messaging contributed to market uncertainty, causing fluctuations in the probabilities across valuation brackets and the no IPO outcome.
Skepticism grows over OpenAI IPO happening in 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 81%5%
CNN Business published an analysis expressing doubts that OpenAI will go public in 2026, citing the company's need to significantly increase revenue and the IPO not being a current focus. This contributed to a market shift favoring the "No IPO by December 31, 2026" outcome.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Says IPO Is Not on the Cards Right Now
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 70%16%
Speaking at the WSJ Tech Live conference, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated that an initial public offering is not in the startup's near-term plans, cooling down immediate IPO expectations.
Jury throws out Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 45%10%
A jury dismissed Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a legal cloud and pushing the "No IPO" probability down sharply (from 55% to 45%).
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 69%6%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and boosting market confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects. This led to a spike in market prices for IPO outcomes, reflecting increased trader confidence in an upcoming announcement.
OpenAI eyes massive $1T IPO as early as 2026: Reuters
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 81%4%
CoinDesk and Yahoo Finance reported on OpenAI’s plans for a $1 trillion IPO as early as late 2026, citing insiders. The reports highlighted both the potential scale and the early stage of IPO talks, influencing market expectations.
OpenAI restructuring completed unlocking $30 billion funding from Softbank
1.25T–1.5T jumps to 8%6%
OpenAI finalized a major restructuring, enabling the nonprofit arm to hold a significant stake and unlocking $30 billion in funding from Softbank. This financial boost supported the company's IPO ambitions and temporarily increased confidence in the 1.25T–1.5T valuation bracket.
OpenAI plans IPO as soon as late 2026 amid restructuring
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 81%4%
Following the Reuters report, Forbes highlighted OpenAI's transition to a public benefit corporation and its plans for an IPO in late 2026, reinforcing market expectations for a near-term public offering and a valuation doubling to $1 trillion.
OpenAI lays groundwork for up to $1 trillion IPO in late 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 66%16%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to file with securities regulators in the second half of 2026, targeting a valuation up to $1 trillion. This news increased market expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI considers 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation target
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
Reuters reported that OpenAI was considering filing for an IPO in the second half of 2026 with a target valuation of $1 trillion, signaling the start of serious IPO preparations and influencing market expectations.
Reuters reports OpenAI considering IPO filing in second half of 2026 or 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 68%5%
A Reuters report indicated OpenAI was considering filing for an IPO in the second half of 2026 or in 2027, which influenced market expectations about the timing of the IPO.
OpenAI lays groundwork for up to $1 trillion IPO
OpenAI announced plans to prepare for an IPO potentially valuing the company at up to $1 trillion, targeting a filing with regulators in the second half of 2026. This set early market expectations for a large IPO and influenced valuation brackets.
Report suggests OpenAI considering IPO filing in second half of 2026 or 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Reuters reported that OpenAI was considering filing for an IPO in the second half of 2026 or in 2027, fueling early market speculation about the timing of the public offering and influencing market prices for IPO-related outcomes.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO with potential $1 trillion valuation
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, marking it as one of the largest IPOs ever. CEO Sam Altman indicated that an IPO was the most likely path given capital needs, fueling market speculation and price movements.
OpenAI reportedly planning 2026-2027 IPO at valuation up to $1T
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%18%
SiliconANGLE reported that OpenAI is considering filing for an IPO in the second half of 2026 with a valuation up to $1 trillion, but the company stated IPO is not their focus. This added to market uncertainty about the timing and likelihood of the IPO.
OpenAI considers 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation target
1T–1.25T plunges to 6%44%
Reuters reported that OpenAI was laying groundwork for a juggernaut IPO with a potential valuation of up to $1 trillion, signaling increased market anticipation for a public offering in 2026. This news likely contributed to early market pricing shifts favoring a high valuation outcome.
OpenAI eyes second‑half‑2026 IPO filing, WSJ reports
1.5T+ rises to 4%3%
A Reuters report cited The Wall Street Journal saying OpenAI was considering filing for an IPO in the second half of 2026. The news lifted optimism about a near‑term listing, pushing the market‑cap odds toward the higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman signals IPO as most likely future but timing uncertain
In a livestream on October 28, 2025, CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO was the most likely future for OpenAI, though the exact timing remained uncertain. This public statement increased market attention and speculation about the IPO timeline, influencing early market pricing.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO with potential $1 trillion valuation
1.25T–1.5T plunges to 9%41%
OpenAI was reported to be preparing for an IPO filing in the second half of 2026, with a potential valuation up to $1 trillion, signaling the start of serious market expectations for a large public offering.
OpenAI lays groundwork for up to $1 trillion IPO in late 2026
1T–1.25T plunges to 2%48%
OpenAI was reported to be preparing for an IPO potentially valuing the company up to $1 trillion, considering filing with regulators in the second half of 2026. CFO Sarah Friar indicated a possible 2027 listing, but advisers predicted a late 2026 IPO, raising market expectations for a large debut.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman states IPO is likely but timing uncertain
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 62%12%
On October 28, 2025, Sam Altman indicated that an IPO was the most likely future for OpenAI, though no specific timing was set. This statement influenced market expectations about the IPO timing and valuation.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO targeting up to $1 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 68%18%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to file for an IPO in the second half of 2026, aiming for a valuation up to $1 trillion. This news increased market optimism about a late 2026 IPO and a high valuation.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO valued up to $1 trillion
1T–1.25T jumps to 13%11%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, marking it as one of the biggest IPOs ever. This news caused a spike in market optimism for the higher valuation brackets, though OpenAI stated an IPO was not their immediate focus.
OpenAI completes restructuring into Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI restructured its for-profit entity into a Public Benefit Corporation, with the nonprofit OpenAI Foundation retaining governance control. This corporate restructuring was a key step toward preparing for a public offering, initially boosting market optimism about an upcoming IPO.
OpenAI Completes Restructuring Into Delaware Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 59%20%
OpenAI finalized its transition from a non-profit to a public benefit corporation, a crucial structural step designed to clear legal hurdles and attract institutional capital for a future IPO.
OpenAI Finalizes Restructuring Into Delaware Public Benefit Corporation
1T–1.25T jumps to 13%12%
OpenAI completed its transition from a nonprofit to a Delaware-based Public Benefit Corporation, a crucial structural step designed to clear legal hurdles and attract institutional capital for a traditional IPO.
OpenAI Restructures to Public Benefit Corporation Removing Investor Return Caps
1T–1.25T surges to 24%23%
OpenAI transitioned from a capped-profit hybrid to a Public Benefit Corporation, removing the 100x investor return cap and clearing a major structural hurdle for a future public listing.
OpenAI Finalizes Restructuring into a Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 59%26%
OpenAI completed its transition to a Delaware-based Public Benefit Corporation, clearing legal hurdles and establishing a structure to attract large institutional investments for a traditional IPO.
OpenAI completes restructuring into a Delaware-based Public Benefit Corporation
OpenAI finalized a major restructuring into a Public Benefit Corporation, allowing the original non-profit foundation to retain a 26% equity stake and enabling the company to raise capital more effectively. This structural change was a crucial step toward enabling a future IPO and influenced market expectations for OpenAI's public listing.
OpenAI converts to a Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 73%11%
OpenAI officially converted from a nonprofit‑controlled hybrid to a Public Benefit Corporation, removing a structural barrier to a traditional IPO and prompting traders to raise odds of a public listing.
OpenAI completes employee share sale valuing company at $500 billion
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 67%17%
In October 2025, OpenAI completed an employee share sale that valued the company at $500 billion, marking it as the most valuable privately owned company globally. This milestone significantly influenced market expectations for a high valuation at IPO.
OpenAI restructures into a public benefit corporation, removing IPO barriers
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
OpenAI finalized a major restructuring into a Delaware-based public benefit corporation, allowing the original non-profit foundation to retain equity and removing structural barriers to a traditional IPO. This move increased market confidence in a potential IPO, supporting early optimism for a 2026 listing.
OpenAI completes transition to public benefit corporation, enabling IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 74%6%
OpenAI's corporate restructuring from a nonprofit to a public benefit corporation removed a key legal barrier to going public, paving the way for an IPO. This milestone increased market speculation about a potential IPO and valuation targets around $1 trillion.
OpenAI completes restructuring to public benefit corporation enabling IPO
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI finalized its corporate restructuring into a public benefit corporation (PBC), allowing it to raise capital more freely and paving the way for a future IPO. This structural change was critical for enabling large-scale fundraising and public market entry, positively impacting market expectations for an IPO.
OpenAI converts to Public Benefit Corporation, enabling IPO readiness
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%15%
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI completed a recapitalization converting to a Delaware-based Public Benefit Corporation, addressing prior governance and capital-raising challenges. This structural change was crucial for enabling institutional investment and IPO preparations, positively impacting market expectations for an IPO.
Sam Altman states IPO is likely but timing uncertain
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 53%3%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman publicly acknowledged that an IPO is the most likely future for OpenAI, though the exact timing remained uncertain. This statement increased market awareness and speculation about a potential IPO, influencing early market pricing.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman states IPO is likely but timing uncertain
In a livestream on October 28, 2025, CEO Sam Altman indicated that an IPO was the most likely future for OpenAI, though the exact timing was uncertain. This statement likely influenced market expectations by confirming IPO plans without committing to a date.
OpenAI completes restructuring into a public benefit corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 68%18%
OpenAI completed a restructuring in October 2025 creating OpenAI Group PBC, a public benefit corporation, which gave the company a clearer path to raising capital and preparing for an IPO. This structural change was significant for investor confidence and IPO prospects.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman states IPO is likely but timing uncertain
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Sam Altman publicly indicated that an IPO is the most likely future for OpenAI, though no specific timing was confirmed. This statement influenced market expectations by confirming IPO intent but maintaining uncertainty about the date, causing moderate price fluctuations.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus draft, signaling imminent public offering
1.5T+ rises to 8%4%
Reports emerged that OpenAI planned to file a draft IPO prospectus soon, sparking market optimism about a near-term IPO and driving up the probability of a high valuation IPO. This filing indicated serious progress toward going public, influencing market pricing positively for outcomes above $1 trillion.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
1.5T+ jumps to 11%7%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit removed a significant legal hurdle for OpenAI's IPO plans, boosting market confidence in a successful IPO and higher valuation outcomes.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%15%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit removed a significant legal overhang for OpenAI, improving market sentiment about the company's IPO prospects and reducing uncertainty around its corporate structure.
OpenAI valued at $500 billion in employee share sale
<500B plunges to 2%41%
In October 2025, OpenAI's employee share sale valued the company at $500 billion, signaling strong private market demand and fueling speculation about a future IPO valuation.
Reports of OpenAI confidential IPO filing spark market optimism
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 81%31%
A CNBC report cited an insider claiming OpenAI would file a draft IPO prospectus imminently, boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO. This news increased the perceived likelihood of an IPO announcement, reflected in rising market prices for IPO-related outcomes.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 71%2%
Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others was thrown out by a jury due to delay in filing, removing a legal obstacle and boosting market confidence in OpenAI's IPO plans.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 83%33%
A CNBC report cited an insider claiming OpenAI would file a draft IPO prospectus soon, sparking market optimism about a 2026 IPO and increasing the probability of an IPO announcement within the year.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 74%6%
Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others was dismissed by a jury, removing a legal obstacle and boosting market confidence in OpenAI's IPO plans, which likely contributed to increased odds for the IPO announcement and higher market cap outcomes.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing for IPO confidential filing
1.5T+ plunges to 4%46%
News surfaced that OpenAI was planning to confidentially file IPO paperwork soon, sparking increased market speculation about a 2026 public offering and boosting confidence in a high valuation outcome.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO path
1.5T+ jumps to 11%7%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and increasing confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects. This dismissal was perceived as a positive catalyst, briefly boosting market confidence in a successful IPO and higher valuation outcomes.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
News surfaced that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, causing a spike in market optimism and increasing prices for IPO-related outcomes. This reflected growing confidence in a potential 2026 IPO.
OpenAI transitions to Public Benefit Corporation structure
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI transitioned to a Public Benefit Corporation, a key structural change that set the stage for future public offerings. This milestone was seen as a foundational step towards an IPO, influencing market expectations positively.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others was dismissed by a jury, removing a significant legal obstacle for OpenAI and potentially increasing confidence in its IPO plans. This legal resolution likely contributed to early bullish sentiment on OpenAI's IPO prospects.
OpenAI remains private with no IPO date announced
As of late 2025, OpenAI had not announced any official IPO date, maintaining its private status and focusing on strategic investors like Microsoft. This lack of IPO news kept market probabilities for an IPO low and the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' option at moderate levels.
OpenAI data center construction signals infrastructure buildup ahead of IPO
OpenAI showcased its data center under construction in Abilene, Texas, indicating significant infrastructure investments that underpin its plans for a large-scale IPO. This development raised market expectations for a high valuation IPO, initially boosting confidence in the 1T+ valuation brackets.
Market opens with neutral expectations for OpenAI IPO
Early market entry price (50 %) reflects baseline uncertainty before any concrete IPO news.
OpenAI begins confidential IPO filing preparation with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley
1.5T+ plunges to 4%46%
OpenAI disclosed that it was working with investment banks on a confidential filing, triggering the first rise in the 1.5T+ outcome from 50% to 4% as traders priced in the possibility of a record‑size IPO.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%27%
Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others was thrown out by a jury due to delay in filing. This legal resolution removed a significant uncertainty around OpenAI, likely increasing confidence in its IPO plans and boosting market optimism.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman tours AI data center amid IPO speculation
Sam Altman, OpenAI's CEO, was publicly seen touring the Stargate AI data center, signaling ongoing operational progress and fueling early market speculation about OpenAI's IPO prospects.
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