Anthropic’s advanced IPO preparations, including its June confidential S-1 filing and reported November 2026 target ahead of U.S. midterms, stand in sharp contrast to OpenAI’s explicit delay. CEO Sam Altman stated in September that a 2026 listing would be ill-advised amid AI safety and alignment priorities, pushing OpenAI’s timeline into 2027. This divergence underpins the 95.9% market-implied odds favoring Anthropic first, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital on the companies’ divergent paths. Anthropic projects rapid revenue growth toward a potential $2 trillion valuation despite heavy losses, while OpenAI focuses privately on safety benchmarks. Remaining risks include regulatory reviews or market shifts that could delay Anthropic’s debut, though OpenAI’s public commitment makes a reversal unlikely before year-end.