**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with the September 16 hike that lifted the federal funds rate to the 3.75–4.00% range, continues to anchor trader expectations for the remaining 2026 meetings.** Recent FOMC minutes and October 8 remarks from Governor Waller underscore that most participants viewed an additional 25-basis-point increase as likely appropriate by year-end, while September core PCE near 3.4% and stable labor-market readings have reinforced the case against rapid easing. Market-implied pricing for the October 27–28, November, and December 8–9 decisions therefore favors a Hike–Pause–Hike sequence at 66.5%, reflecting a data-dependent pause next month followed by tightening in December once fresh CPI and employment figures are assessed. Upcoming releases, including the October 14 CPI report and subsequent labor data, remain the key swing factors that could shift probabilities among the listed paths.