Recent Fed communications and sticky inflation data underpin the 62% market-implied odds for a September hike followed by an October pause and December increase. The September 16 decision raised the federal funds target to 3.75–4.00% amid August CPI showing 3.4% year-over-year growth and 0.4% monthly gains, with core pressures persisting above the 2% goal. Officials’ dot plot and statements from New York Fed President Williams reinforced expectations for one additional 25-basis-point move by year-end, citing resilient economic activity and supply-side risks. Traders now focus on the October 27–28 meeting and the September CPI release due October 14 for confirmation of the data-dependent pause before a potential December tightening.