**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a solid labor market are anchoring trader expectations for limited dissent at the January 2027 FOMC meeting.** The September 2026 minutes, released in early October, showed a unanimous 12-0 vote to hike 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% range, with most participants viewing another increase as likely appropriate by year-end amid elevated PCE readings near 3.4–3.7%. This recent display of committee cohesion, following earlier splits such as the 9-3 July vote, supports the 56% market-implied probability on zero dissents. At the same time, hawkish voices like Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan continue to emphasize upside inflation risks from energy prices and AI-driven demand, keeping the 25.5% odds on exactly three dissents alive as a plausible alternative if incoming data—such as the October CPI release or the December dot plot—reveal sharper policy disagreements. Markets price these outcomes against a backdrop of expected policy normalization rather than aggressive easing or further sharp tightening.