Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Sen. John Cornyn at 54% implied probability to receive President Trump's endorsement in the Texas Senate Republican primary runoff against Attorney General Ken Paxton (33%), reflecting Cornyn's incumbency, fundraising edge, and perceived general election viability despite Paxton's polling lead among GOP primary voters. Trump teased an endorsement shortly after the March 4 primary but has remained silent for over six weeks amid intense MAGA pressure against Cornyn, missing self-imposed deadlines and praising both candidates' electability. Recent Trump endorsements include Steve Hilton for California governor (April 6), Sen. Lindsey Graham (April 10), Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (April 9), and several House candidates (April 14), signaling active involvement elsewhere. The May 27 runoff looms as the key catalyst.