Congressional leaders from both parties have consistently raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of exhaustion, as seen with the $5 trillion increase enacted in 2025 that set the cap at $41.1 trillion. With gross federal debt surpassing $40 trillion in 2025 and projections placing a binding constraint in early-to-mid 2027, lawmakers are actively discussing action during the lame-duck session or early in the next Congress. Traders assign a 97.9% probability to no default by 2027, reflecting the shared interest in preventing market volatility, higher borrowing costs, and credit rating pressure. A default remains improbable absent an unprecedented breakdown in negotiations after the midterms, though delays from divided government or spending disputes could test timelines before extraordinary measures are exhausted.