**No at 56.5% reflects the tight July 31, 2027 resolution window for a complex felony case still in its early pre-trial phase.** Dalton Eatherly, the IRL livestreamer known as Chud the Builder, faces attempted criminal homicide and related firearm charges from a May 13, 2026, courthouse shooting in Clarksville, Tennessee, plus separate misdemeanors from a Nashville restaurant incident. He claims self-defense after an altercation with Joshua Fox, and the case has drawn fundraising support and procedural scrutiny. Since his August 2026 release on a $1 million bond, Eatherly has been under house arrest with GPS monitoring, a weapons ban, gag orders, and restrictions on public commentary or streaming about the matter. Proceedings remain bound over to a grand jury with no trial date set, leaving roughly nine months until the market deadline. Tennessee violent felony cases of this nature routinely require 12–18 months or more for motions, discovery, and scheduling, making a timely conviction verdict unlikely. Traders are pricing in realistic outcomes that favor “No,” such as continued delays, a plea without a formal guilty judgment, or a trial extending past the cutoff. Momentum could shift only with an unexpectedly swift grand jury true bill and expedited trial date, but current court calendars and defense strategies point to extended proceedings.