Trader consensus has converged on a 13°C daily minimum in Wellington on October 12 due to verified observations from official stations, including Wellington International Airport, where overnight lows stabilized at 13–14°C under mild northerly flow and high pressure. Multiple hourly records confirm temperatures did not dip to 9°C, aligning with climatological norms for mid-October in the region. Market-implied odds reflect this real-time data rather than forecasts, as the trading day aligns with the observation window. A realistic challenge would require post-resolution revisions from MetService or NIWA showing a lower reading at an alternate site, though current station agreement makes such an adjustment improbable.