Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a mild westerly flow with Atlantic air dominating over Warsaw on September 25, 2026, supporting overnight lows near 9–11°C amid persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This consensus, aligned with recent observations of above-normal September temperatures and absent cold-air advection, positions the 8–12°C range as the primary driver of trader sentiment reflected in the clustered 24–25.5% implied probabilities. Lower outcomes such as 3°C or below carry elevated market weight due to forecast uncertainty and potential model divergence, though climatological baselines and current steering patterns make substantial drops unlikely without a sharp pattern shift. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 12–24 hours represent key catalysts for any repricing.