The market's overwhelming 93% implied probability for a 30°C high in Tokyo today stems from Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus showing peak temperatures stabilizing near that threshold under typical late-September conditions, with moderate humidity and limited daytime heating from variable cloud cover. Historical baselines place average September highs around 28–29°C, and recent observational data align with this pattern absent any strong warm advection or urban heat island amplification. Traders appear to discount outlier scenarios like rapid clearing that could push readings to 31–32°C or unexpected cooling from increased moisture. Updated JMA guidance and real-time station reports through the afternoon will be the key variables that could still shift final resolution if models diverge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 22?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 22?
30°C 97%
31°C 3%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
NEW
$72,826 Vol.
NEW
$72,826 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
97%
31°C
3%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 97%
31°C 3%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
NEW
$72,826 Vol.
NEW
$72,826 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
25°C or below
$5,916 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$3,761 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$4,547 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$8,222 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$16,322 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$10,158 Vol.
97%
31°C
$8,651 Vol.
3%
32°C
$6,543 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$3,773 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$3,777 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$1,154 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's overwhelming 93% implied probability for a 30°C high in Tokyo today stems from Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus showing peak temperatures stabilizing near that threshold under typical late-September conditions, with moderate humidity and limited daytime heating from variable cloud cover. Historical baselines place average September highs around 28–29°C, and recent observational data align with this pattern absent any strong warm advection or urban heat island amplification. Traders appear to discount outlier scenarios like rapid clearing that could push readings to 31–32°C or unexpected cooling from increased moisture. Updated JMA guidance and real-time station reports through the afternoon will be the key variables that could still shift final resolution if models diverge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$72,826End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's overwhelming 93% implied probability for a 30°C high in Tokyo today stems from Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus showing peak temperatures stabilizing near that threshold under typical late-September conditions, with moderate humidity and limited daytime heating from variable cloud cover. Historical baselines place average September highs around 28–29°C, and recent observational data align with this pattern absent any strong warm advection or urban heat island amplification. Traders appear to discount outlier scenarios like rapid clearing that could push readings to 31–32°C or unexpected cooling from increased moisture. Updated JMA guidance and real-time station reports through the afternoon will be the key variables that could still shift final resolution if models diverge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$72,826End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's overwhelming 93% implied probability for a 30°C high in Tokyo today stems from Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus showing peak temperatures stabilizing near that threshold under typical late-September conditions, with moderate humidity and limited daytime heating from variable cloud cover. Historical baselines place average September highs around 28–29°C, and recent observational data align with this pattern absent any strong warm advection or urban heat island amplification. Traders appear to discount outlier scenarios like rapid clearing that could push readings to 31–32°C or unexpected cooling from increased moisture. Updated JMA guidance and real-time station reports through the afternoon will be the key variables that could still shift final resolution if models diverge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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